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Old 03-11-2016, 06:02 PM   #101
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Rubio throwing his OH support to Kasich didn't move the Kasich.OH market at all. lol Rubio. Perhaps lol me as well because I decided to go long Kasich.OH because of it.
Kaisch still has a good chance in OH.
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Old 03-11-2016, 06:14 PM   #102
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Found this useful link

https://electionbettingodds.com/mo.html
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Old 03-11-2016, 07:01 PM   #103
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Relevant for people betting in OH

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...ote-in-primary
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Old 03-11-2016, 07:11 PM   #104
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Could be significant. Voter turnout is not bad for people who first get the opportunity. Could be a lot of excited 17yos.

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Old 03-11-2016, 09:48 PM   #105
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Bernie surgin' in IL. It's happening, hop on quick
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Old 03-11-2016, 10:49 PM   #106
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Sorry, still short Bern. Not gonna try to fade a 30 point polling lead.
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Old 03-11-2016, 10:55 PM   #107
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I'm actually tempted to flip my IL and rebuy. I'm not really sure what is up with this surge, just from the Trump rally that got canceled or something? Would be any easy 50% profit from when I bought at 16c earlier...

From the Trump rally in Chicago

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Old 03-12-2016, 12:23 AM   #108
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Is there any reason to think Chicago is a better metro area for Bernie than all the other big metro areas that have voted so far? Is it possible to win Illinois while losing Chicago by a decent margin in a democratic primary? I'm really struggling to see why Hillary isn't free money
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:33 AM   #109
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Chicago metro area is like 75% of Illinois
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Old 03-12-2016, 02:00 AM   #110
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Is there any reason to think Chicago is a better metro area for Bernie than all the other big metro areas that have voted so far? Is it possible to win Illinois while losing Chicago by a decent margin in a democratic primary? I'm really struggling to see why Hillary isn't free money
Relative facebook like distributuion is 2 times better for Sanders in Chicago than it was in Detroit.
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Old 03-12-2016, 07:52 PM   #111
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Bernie is ridiculous high on Google Trends in IL today compared to Hill, yesterday as well. this is including samples over periods of time when he wasn't doing events, but there could be some post-rally resonance.

If i was literally only looking at google trends data for the last 2 days alone and forced to make a prediction not know anything else I would say Bernie wins IL and MO but loses OH. Will have a better picture the night before though. OH also has the lowest level of search activity of Bernie's 3 realistic targets
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Old 03-13-2016, 09:12 AM   #112
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

New poll has Sanders ahead in IL.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/election...leads-florida/

Last edited by imjosh; 03-13-2016 at 09:17 AM.
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Old 03-13-2016, 09:49 AM   #113
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I have a hard time being interested in the Dem campaign, maybe I will look dumb for saying this later but isn't this thing over? Clinton has a lead that cannot be caught.
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Old 03-13-2016, 10:24 AM   #114
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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I have a hard time being interested in the Dem campaign, maybe I will look dumb for saying this later but isn't this thing over? Clinton has a lead that cannot be caught.
well this isnt true at all
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Old 03-13-2016, 10:55 AM   #115
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Second poll has him only down 6. Bailed on my short position at a significant loss.
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Old 03-13-2016, 11:50 AM   #116
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Damn. I wish i trusted my GOOGLETRENDS instinct yesterday and sold my Ohio shares to buy more IL shares. Gotta learn to do that in the future. Gonna let it ride in Ohio out of pure homerism at this point. He still has two days to make some gains...
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Old 03-13-2016, 11:58 AM   #117
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

good call on illinois
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Old 03-13-2016, 12:55 PM   #118
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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good call on illinois
Yep, nice. GL
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Old 03-13-2016, 02:07 PM   #119
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Damn. I wish i trusted my GOOGLETRENDS instinct yesterday and sold my Ohio shares to buy more IL shares. Gotta learn to do that in the future. Gonna let it ride in Ohio out of pure homerism at this point. He still has two days to make some gains...
How are the GOOGLETRENDS in OH?

I'm definitely keeping my OH out of homerism no matter what. IL will pay for it anyway. Bought it at $.19.
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Old 03-13-2016, 02:19 PM   #120
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

CBS/YouGov is the one that has Sanders +2 in IL. They had the closest poll in MI with Clinton +11. They have Clinton +9 in OH.
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Old 03-13-2016, 02:49 PM   #121
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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How are the GOOGLETRENDS in OH?

I'm definitely keeping my OH out of homerism no matter what. IL will pay for it anyway. Bought it at $.19.
Here's my GOOGLETRENDS assessment for your money-making pleasures. (with some actual explanation behind my methods)

OH is basically the same as the US average, which isnt that good. on average Bernie has about a 1.6-1.7 times more searches then her for the US, and this really doesnt change much over a span of a week. The search index is also a good indicator, as its the amount of relative searches per state (i think its also proportional to population). If there is a high search index the ratio between Bernie and Hill is magnified. Keep in mind that the search index is basically always smaller than 1, because the state of Vermont = 1.0 where Bernie is God. Higher search index = better for Bern if he is doing well, worse for Bern if he is doing bad.

last 24 hours (Bern/Hill [Search Index])
US - 53/32
FL - 52/34 [23]
NC - 55/31 [28]
OH - 51/30 [38]
IL - 54/26 [48] (over 2x, which afaik Bernie has never lost a state that met this metric. To me this value means he is at MINIMUM a coinflip to win, i would not expect him to lose by more than a few percentage points if he did lose)
MO - 47/18 [59] (WOW. With still two days to go this will only get even better. Lock of the millennium and this is still only 60/40 on PredictIt. INSANE value here.)

I would be SHOCKED if Bernie won MO by less than 10 points. I think he wins it by 20+. This is a really bad state to hold Hillary shares in. I'm really confident that they will call this state as soon as the polls close for Bernie, which means you won't be able to get out of the market early and salvage anything.

As for OH, i'm surprised the search index is so low. Bernie does not appear to be very popular there. Us folk on Bern YES would like to see the index up around where IL and MO are, and a larger spread.

Last edited by imjosh; 03-13-2016 at 03:03 PM.
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Old 03-13-2016, 03:19 PM   #122
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I'm actually tempted to bail on OH and load the rest on MO. I think the EV says to put the money on MO since I have MO at greater than 99% win with a price of 60c and OH is maybe a 30-40% win right now at 35c. But i'm gonna gamble.
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Old 03-13-2016, 11:29 PM   #123
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

As crazy as this sounds I'm actually started to get a feeling Sanders might pull off the robbery of the election and swipe out NC on Tuesday. His GT are now 57/31 there, and the ratio over the past 4 hours are even better. Also, scheduled a rally for NC tomorrow. Interesting choice of state right? And he's going to Charlotte. 20k capacity stadium which I'm sure he will fill. It's going to be all over the news, and then they voted the next day. There is at least a chance he wins. I think the current price is maybe only slightly undervalued. However I think if you were someone who is into pump and dump, now would be a good time to buy NC shares, i think you might be able to sell higher tomorrow or at the very least when the early results come in for NC. I expect they may not be able to call it immediately

(these are just my predictions - im posting them so i can hold myself accountable when they fail)

Last edited by imjosh; 03-13-2016 at 11:51 PM.
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Old 03-13-2016, 11:33 PM   #124
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

PublicPolicyPolling ‎@ppppolls
We will have new numbers in the morning on the Democratic race in all 5 states voting Tuesday- very tight races in Illinois, Missouri, Ohio
9:10 PM - 13 Mar 2016
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Old 03-13-2016, 11:59 PM   #125
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Wouldn't the GT ratio (not absolute numbers) maybe be good in the case that Bernie is just gaining ground? That's not necessarily a good indication that he will win in NC where he's so far behind.
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