Think NYT released the convention speaking schedule. Newt has a slot one day, and then the next day there's a slot of the VP.

Seems to be down to Christie and Pence, or some misc nonentity

this morning AP released one with Christie

i don't think the schedule is a big clue

It's still free money, just not as much.
Newt's speaking day is the same as the VP day, which would be easy enough to change. With that said I bought some Newt No.

Iron it just sounds stupid based on the fee structure to say buying no/selling yes high 80¢ is "free $." All about risk/reward & there isn't much there.

RIP Rep VP market, it was a good run

The fee is 10% on profits... getting ~11% in less than 2 hours is still ~10% after fees.

Sold out @98c cause I don't feel like waiting for conference for another 2c per share

On the flip side, theres someone with a buy order for 11093 Sessions no @98c who I guess wants to make 2% which def doesn't seem worth it.

It's clear (easier said in retrospect but still true) the better bet was simply yes on Pence in the low 50s or whatever yesterday.

Right but that's being captain hindsight and all accounts had there still being 3 people in the race yesterday so it was no guarantee. Meanwhile people were buying Sessions around 12c literally 2 hours ago today despite 0 sources indicating he was still in the running.

Yeah hence the "easier said in retrospect" part. It just seemed pretty obvious for the last few days despite whatever misdirection from the campaign/press that there was no one else but Pence that was getting the nod.

Trump tweeting that nothing is official til tomorrow so leak maybe bogus? Slash maybe he will get mad at someone ruining his YUGE media event Friday and blame Pence and pick Christie.

Just got 1k Christie @3c just to yolo

some dude on betfair put down four figures in the past 3 days at between 14-20:1 that it was gonna be kasich lol

You could of course make both bets. If something is going to be free money profitable, a fee doesn't change that.

I am amazed there are Euros out there betting so crazy on American politics. Some real degenerates out there I guess. This guy couldn't find one soccer team on which he would rather throw money away?

My point was more there is no "free $" clearly, always money to be made but that doesn't make it "free."

Reports of Pence "premature"

Its happening?

I agree with you in the sense that people are way too inclined to call something a "lock" or "free money." There are certainly 90/10 bets that have a 99% chance of winning, but sometimes a bet also appears 99% except that everyone is missing one vital factor, or gives too much credit to untrustworthy data, and it all topples.

It would probably be interesting if someone had some statistical analysis of whether the markets (predictit or otherwise) tended to over-estimate or underestimate the chances of favorites in the 90-95% range, or longshots in general. Presumably the $850 rule on predictit prevents many longshots from receiving true odds, and that's probably generally true in the 96c+ range.

Robert Costa ✔ @costareports
What we know: aides to Pence and other VP hopefuls thought Trump would call earlier today, make things clear. But Trump holding off for now.
2:46 PM - 14 Jul 2016

Incredible, Rep VP market surges back to life

Went from Pence 95 no one else above 2 (newt, christie) to 79/20/10

There's very little European soccer being played this week, though I have heard of Asians betting on a Canadian amateur league.

The R VP market has passed the R Nom market for the 2nd most traded after the GE market. I managed to get some Pence No at 8 then chickened out and sold at 9.

My experience is the market is way more likely to overestimate odds than underestimate. It's much more common for implied odds to be over 100%, which would be even worse if it weren't for people like me trying to arb.

Still, I gotta think MLS ranks higher than American GOP VP in the mind of the average Euro punter.

Sold my Christies at 12c, meanwhile someone has been buying huge amounts of Carson who is now up to 5c. Wtf is going on, total chaos

There's plenty of betting on MLS too. The games are even televised in some countries.

I put a lot on Newt earlier following the Fox thing / unfortunately before the 'final' Pence news came in, but am happy I did lol

super important aside: if he effectively causes Pence to miss his re-election deadline by yoinking the football away, the initial unbinding vote is like eight hours later and some people will absolutely flip their votes

Isn't the initial unbinding vote tomorrow?

I'm pretty new to screwing around on this site, but it seems like a lot of collusion to spike and crash markets and get people to make panic sales. And the comment section is a cesspool of people trying to pump up markets.

Yes, the only thing the comments are good for is links to reputable news sources. Watch out for fake websites put up by pumpers though.