Not seeing how Montana is considerably different than Idaho. Fewer Mormons ?

Pro tip: Buy a single share in the General Election market now. Once all these states' primaries are over every clown on PI will be piling in to the General market.

Probably.

Great idea, forgot about how $ad I was when I was locked out of the TRUMP market briefly. To add to this, the limit on the # of people that can be active is per-contract, not per-market, so if you want to trade both Hilldog and TRUMP in the future then you should buy one of each now (and probably on the side that you envision you'll be betting in the future, since if you buy a 'yes' now you can't switch to 'no' without liquidating your 'yes' position first)

This is a big complaint I have with PI. They don't let you place orders for both sides unless you already have a position. There doesn't need to be a YES and a NO. Intrade just had one price and you either bought or sold it.

Anyone know if there are any promo codes for PredictIt deposit/first deposit? They sent me one for double your money on $25, but I was looking for something bigger if it's available.

Also, anyone know how the fees are calculated - is it profits on every trade?

For example, if I bet yet on Trump, then sold for a $10 loss. Then after that, if I bet yes on trump again, but this time won $10 when I sold (on the same market), do I pay a $1 fee? Is it the same if I made $10 betting no instead of yes the second time or does that count as a diff market?

yes, profits on every trade on a first in/first out basis....there is no netting of any kind, even between linked markets

$25 is what i've seen, they may have larger ones as a special twitter thing every once in a while, but not aware of any that scale with your deposit

Good to know, ty again.

Is it FIFO? I feel like every trade ****s me over as much as possible (like, if I can turn a profit it specifically sells the cheapest shares I own, if I'm turning a loss it sells the most expensive to maximize future fee potential), but that could easily be a conspiracy theory.

Well, you guys got me this PredictiT thing. My history so far

-bought Trump1273 YES for 45c, sold for 74c ( I gave up some value there i guess)
-bought CruzIndianaYES for 33c open (Cruz is campaigning there much more than Trump; potential Trump voters may not show up, should be 50/50 i think)
-bought CruzNebraskaYES last week for 60c (very conservative voters) open
-bought HilaryUSPrez for 65c (get in early) open

I'm no political expert. Just for fun.

There are a few weird factors that come into play that make it difficult to predict exactly, with the Cruz + Kasich collaboration/collusion and the VIP pick (will it convince people he's still in the race or look like an act of desperation?) It's also an open primary, which probably favors Trump. +some Sanders supporters will likely come over if they think his chances are slim. I'd say Trump 70%, maybe slightly higher, but an upset wouldn't be a huge surprise.

I'd be slightly worried Cruz might drop out if he loses Indiana, though I wouldn't feel confident in estimating the probability he does. 1/4 chance maybe? There will be a lot of pressure on him to get out if Trump takes Indiana.

Most other markets have Hillary around 72%, so if they're right, your bet is good.

I'm not sure if it's a factor of the percentages aligning more with my own biases, but it seems like overall the odds on PredictIt are more accurate now than when I checked a month or so ago. Maybe more pros/intelligent bettors came around? Still a couple oddballs here and there, though.

Edit: Kasich may be even more likely than Cruz to drop out, which would put make it look even worse for Cruz.

I just bet at 15:1 that Gary Johnson wins plurality of delegates during the general elections, if he participates in national debates.

Latest indiana poll (Trump +15) seems to have convinced everyone on predictit that the end is nigh for Cruz. Indiana trading at 91 trump, nomination around 90, markets are still moving so no guarantee where it will settle. Trump's current lowest state (of all states remaining) is 68 percent.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-5786.html

sold my CruzIndianaYES CruzNebraskaYES for a loss , oh well

New poll in Indiana, understandable. What's your reasoning behind selling Nebraska?

The bandwagon effect may be in play here. Nebraska might be even cheaper after a Cruz IND primary loss anyway.

Anyone know if, hypothetically, Trump won big today and both his opponents dropped out - does that mean markets like Republican nomination market will resolve within a few days of that happening? Or will people still have to wait until July?

Of course, people could probably sell at 99% to avoid waiting if they really wanted.

People will have to wait. Also, I doubt the market trades > 96-97 until the day of even if both Cruz and Kasich drop out.

Cruz in NE is trading at 30, and is a bit lower than the market for him not dropping out this month (43). I just don't understand these markets.

^Unless I'm missing something, that doesn't sound particularly bizarre to me.

Let's look at it in an overly simplified way: let's say Cruz loses that state 100% of the time he drops out in May (which isn't completely true since he could technically win it and drop out later).

That means that he has to win the state 30/43 of the time that he doesn't drop out. It's supposedly a Cruz favored state, but Cruz has been getting crushed all around and dropping in nearly all polls, so that's not entirely unreasonable. Also, since we're talking about the 43% of the time where he doesn't drop out, that's presumably the times where he recovers a bit in the polls and doesn't get absolutely crushed in Indiana, so him being a moderate favorite doesn't seem very strange.

Mathematically, it's just that if we estimate P(A|B) = 30/43, P(B) = 43%, and P(A|-B)=0. Therefore P(A)=30% (Bayes theorem, contrapositive gives us P(B|A)=1)

Where P(A|B) means probability of A given B is true, A = Cruz wins NE, B = Cruz stays in.

Not saying I necessarily agree that those numbers are accurate estimates, but they seem at least plausible.

FWIW we're now once again through the Cruz is undervalued looking glass.

I'm getting orders filled at 80/1 when the Trump contract is at 93%. This is not a thing that makes sense. Also, if there was a way to put four figures on Cruz at 80/1 I'd probably do it. Maybe five, I'm not too risk averse.

LOL nevermind

Such sick value in the Cruz dropping out bet up until 15 minutes ago lol.

Damn should have bought some Trump yes Nebraska shares last week, oh well

Kinda surprised Trump is only trading at 90-93c on predict it now after what looks like a blowout victory. They tend to react a little stronger to news than other betting markets, and tend to have a higher trump supporting %.

Only way Trump can lose at this point is if he does something profoundly stupid, though maybe others think that's actually a fairly likely possibility.

Still, you'd have to be extremely confident (or foolish) to give something like 80:1.

Edit: Looks like I was a bit slow on the news.

Gonna get cleaned out by Hillary in Indiana if the cities don't show up in ****ing force. If they do, however, then it's quadruple up city.