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Old 11-06-2018, 11:41 AM   #2776
dth123451
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

If you want a free 3% return in 12 hours, you can bet a number of absolute locks on Bovada, including Gavin Newsome governor.
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Old 11-06-2018, 11:50 AM   #2777
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Sinema on predictit seems like a p solid bet though. Bovada has Sinema at even, nate has sinema as 5 in 8 (62%) classic model and 2 in 3 (67.1%) in the deluxe model, but shes currently a slight dog on predictit. Was able to pick up some 46c Rep NO.
down to 42c rep no
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Old 11-06-2018, 12:23 PM   #2778
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

As well as parking some money on Sanders and Warren to retain their seats for a 1% boost, got a relatively biggish position on the Nevada Senate seat to be won by Rosen (D) at 1.4 (so equivalent to a 72% chance, 2-5, -250 etc.).
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Old 11-06-2018, 04:06 PM   #2779
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Put a little on Stabenow to retain since it was the largest mismatch between 538 and Predictit I saw. It's been dropping today and is at ~78c and Nate has it at 98.4% in the deluxe model (lowest is 95.8% in classic)
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Old 11-06-2018, 04:09 PM   #2780
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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I've got D house -300 and Gillum on predictit at an average of 55c
Gillum seems a great play even at 70ish.

Healthy lead in polls (+3.6% RCP)
Fla polls were accurate in 2016 (underestimated Trump by 0.8%)
Obama outperformed the polls in Fla in 2012 by 2.4%.
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:39 PM   #2781
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

How is Predictit down? They've have literal years to prepare for tonight.
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:45 PM   #2782
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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How is Predictit down? They've have literal years to prepare for tonight.
It went almost exactly like this on there in 2016.
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:50 PM   #2783
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

welp
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:53 PM   #2784
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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It went almost exactly like this on there in 2016.
Exactly, They have had two years to hire some smart computer dudes to set them up with some kind of on-demand webserver stuff. They could have ramped this thing up to 11 for tonight, but they didn't. Their fees are far too high to not have some computer competency.
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Old 11-22-2018, 03:06 AM   #2785
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I waited until after midterms to get a better deal on NO for "Will Donald Trump be impeached by year-end 2019" Since I thought dems would win the house. Surprisingly, not much effect on the price.

I've won all my significant bets in Predictit so far and I barely know all that much about politics. Some of these bets are common sense. i.e. Kid Rock running for senate or Donald Trump winning a noble peace prize. Lol, how this stuff ever went above a penny is beyond me.

My current picks are:
Will Trump be president at end of 2018? YES
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2018? NO
Will Hillary face charges by 12/31/18? NO
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2019? NO

I really hope they keep reopening this Hillary facing charges thing. It is basically free money every time.
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Old 11-22-2018, 03:28 AM   #2786
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

That's what everyone says when they always bet odds on.

Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
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Old 11-22-2018, 03:40 AM   #2787
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Yeah, they are pennies now, but they weren't when I got them earlier this year. I actually have been considering selling them. I can only get the Trump impeached for 2018 for 98 cents and not 99 cents so I decided not to.

I'll probably carry them over into the market for the following year on new years. I'm not good at predicting when a market will be up or down, but I've been pretty good about predicting end results so far.

Since I'm not great at politics, I choose not to bet on stuff I don't understand. I usually pick the things that are going to have a lot of hype around or will attract a lot of emotional bettors.
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Old 11-22-2018, 04:39 AM   #2788
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Opposing emotional bettors is good. Also you sound disciplined in your picks.
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Old 12-21-2018, 02:16 PM   #2789
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Interesting market here, looks like its going to come down to the rules?

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...-2018-midterms
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Old 03-17-2019, 06:39 PM   #2790
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Shorting Andrew Yang at 14c on predictit seems like the free-est of money.
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Old 03-17-2019, 08:07 PM   #2791
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

What are the odds of Trump as President again?
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Old 03-17-2019, 08:29 PM   #2792
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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What are the odds of Trump as President again?
35% on Predictit
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Old 03-29-2019, 03:33 PM   #2793
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Odds of Theresa May leaving in 2019 are 1.06 on Betfair (it can be layed for 1.1). These odds seem incredibly short. She said she would leave if her deal got voted through, but this didn't happen. She has been stubborn so far and I think she will try to cling onto power for longer than this year. I think her chances of leaving are nowhere near as high as 90%, which is what the odds suggest.

Just wondering what peoples opinions are on this?
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Old 03-29-2019, 03:43 PM   #2794
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I think there's good chance she leaves in the relatively near future (months). She's ineffective to the point her party really just wants to push her out the door lol.
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Old 04-17-2019, 07:18 PM   #2795
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Yang is priced higher than Beto right now on Predictit
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Old 04-18-2019, 10:09 AM   #2796
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Originally Posted by MultiTabling View Post
Odds of Theresa May leaving in 2019 are 1.06 on Betfair (it can be layed for 1.1). These odds seem incredibly short. She said she would leave if her deal got voted through, but this didn't happen. She has been stubborn so far and I think she will try to cling onto power for longer than this year. I think her chances of leaving are nowhere near as high as 90%, which is what the odds suggest.

Just wondering what peoples opinions are on this?
She can face a leadership challenge later in the year (she's currently protected from that) but then there is a lack of credible candidates to replace her (that she isn't credible herself seems to matter less). She can also possibly make it over the line to 2020 if the leadership election drags on.

I liked the 2019 exit date when I got in on it at 1.39 and 1.49 at the end of last year, 1.1 would be too low. The current price of 1.23/1.24 is probably about right.
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Old 04-22-2019, 02:48 AM   #2797
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I've renewed my Hillary Clinton bet for not facing charges. This time it was for the entire year instead of 6 months which was kind of disheartening. I've rolled over most of my Trump bets of him not getting impeached and staying president.

I have not decided yet on whether he will win re-election. I'm thinking probably yes, because the economy is doing well, but I'll wait on this for now.

Two additional bets that I've made are NO on will GOP VP be a woman? Unless Pence becomes a tranny or Trump fires him and picks someone else, I just don't really see this happening. I've also picked NO on will 2020 president be a woman. If a democrat wins the presidency in 2020 there is a chance it could be Bernie, Biden, or some other male candidate. When I bought those shares they were at 73c. I still think it is probably a good deal now at 82c. I think 90c may be the indifference point.
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Old 04-22-2019, 03:15 AM   #2798
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Kamala Harris is a serious possibility for next president, but 73c was clearly ludicrous. 90 is still too low but I wouldn't be trying to squeeze profit out at that point.
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