.66 was a pretty good price imo

The poster "mapz" still won California, Colorado, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Minnesota off that list for 5 out of 8.

Obviously some of those were pretty short odds but he'll have got back about 3/4 of his bankroll.

I did a similar thing:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...&postcount=446
... I put almost my entire poker bankroll on Unibet (except what I had already used to buy into MTTs) on Clinton - with equal shares for Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, the electoral college and a half share for Illinois. "

my BR was only about 300 euros at the time though.

There was some "gentle ribbing" in that thread after results came in but obviously I was on 3.5/4.5 and not really losing on those bets - I'd made some earlier bets though and ended up with a roughly -25% ROI.

Re: betting in Europe. I'm pretty sure a B&M bookmakers in Europe will take a bet from a US citizen physically on their premises.

That guy went from "just playing around trying to clear some credit card bonuses" to plunking down 25k+ inside of 4 months, that's what is really astounding to me. I think he was purely gambling. Seems like he's either winning at life and the money means nothing to him, or he has a serious problem... I lean toward the former. I went HAM too (considering I had almost no track record of political gambling) and lost about 3k that night, I'm glad I didn't go completely bonkers like that guy seems to have.

I can't even say I regret my bets tbh. There wound up being so much dead money in the wake of that night that I made it back almost instantly in mispriced popular vote markets, and it was so juicy for months after. A Hilldawg win would have been boring for the markets, by comparison.

It is so cringy looking back through all the posts about how it was basically free money to bet on Hillary. It really did seem that way at the time.

Is there anywhere I can get action on voter turnout for the mid-terms this year?

I think we're in a bullet market in politics and if the # is anywhere near the 36% of the last mid-terms then I'd like to bet over.

I wouldn't mind a safe bet too.

Damn, Shulkin wrecked my Ross shares. I should have unloaded some but got greedy.

Where do you bet, what do you mean by a safe bet?

Putin to win in 3 weeks at 1.02 is certain - you only need a couple like that a year to beat bank interest.

No rerun of the Brexit referendum by the end of this year at 1.08 is a certainty but you have your money tied up for the year.

I wish I had bought more No shares on Shulkin. I missed the peak and the news because I was asleep, but I snagged some in the 30s.

I put some $ on Predict It after finding this thread. I'm an admitted rookie and could easily have misunderstood the bet or be totally off on my assumption but it just seemed like a 37% over/under was low for voter turnout.

Either way, I appreciate any posts you guys make giving insight into your moves or strategies.

I've since discovered one the errors of my ways, I took "is anywhere near the 36% of the last mid-terms then I'd like to bet over" as being 36% of the previous turnout as opposed to turnout in general.

Live and learn (slowly plodding through this thread)

This seems...optimistic



https://twitter.com/ehosseh/status/966001210628206593

Anyone getting on pa-18? Sold my democratic shares at $0.52 today

Is there something I am missing in Dianne Feinstein only being .70 for Cali senate or is that a sucker bet

Dems endorsed DeLeon and she's 84. If she gets tothe the general I'd guess shed be about 85%

Looked more into this and in California everyone goes in to one big primary and we could end up with two dems in the general, is that right? That seems more favorable for her

I'm on the Lamb.

Bought some r shares today at 38. Hope I'm wrong.

Same, except 36.

The market panicked a bit on the Monmouth poll release, not enough to buy my shares before it settled down though. I got Lamb at 32c and plan on holding. The Margin of Victory markets tend to swing wildly on election night, there will be opportunities there.

Damn got rekt in the next to go market fading Tillerson.

Funny how the guys in the comments can't figure out the people buying Dem Y at 3-4 cents more than Rep N are most likely already maxed out on Rep N.

fun past 24 hours between tillerson and lamb

the tillerson "midnight on march 31st" has gotta be a top 5 PI moment

What the hell is going on in the next to leave market? I quit following after Tillerson was fired.

Oh wow I'm caught up on Tillerson 3/31 now. Which side is everyone playing there?

cliffs on tillerson thread? Is it really all about when midnight occurs on march 31st?