Been some fun movement on Tax Bill markets today. Seems pretty decided that even though it passed, due to Paygo regulations, Trump can't sign it until January.

No Started the day trading 4, got all the way up to 70, came back down to 30, and is now back around 70, should be going to 90 or so as more official sounding sources say he won't sign until January.

Most swingy PI market I can remember in a while. I think YES has swung from like 20 back to 80 in each direction 3 full times by now.

yeah it's been fun

I was reading something about how gerrymandering could finally start to backfire since the GOP was the first to use the newest and best software to really exploit the process that they could be spread very thin in the 2018 mid-terms.

They have so many districts that are designed for them to win with 56-58% and this works well in terms of gaining power but once their is an actual wave it becomes very fragile. Creates the downside risk that a big wave would hurt them much more the way districts are currently drawn up.

If you have any money laying in your PI account, you can still get Doug Jones yes and/or Roy Moore No for 0.98, maybe even 0.97. It looks likely to be certified tomorrow, so should be a very short hold for seemingly risk free 0.02-0.03.

Lol, I moved the market 3 points by voting no on Will a federal criminal charge against Hillary Clinton be confirmed by June 30, 2018?

Not going to happen guys. It is Hillary Clinton. I have 1060 shares for no. Weeeeeee. Easy money here.

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/8...0%2c-2018#data

Someone in the comments linked this Zero Hedge article in which the Clinton campaign did..... something. I guess their criminality is just so widespread and all-encompassing that it's not possible to provide me with a single easily understood example of an illegal action.

I wouldn't call Trump and Sessions not going after Hillary for no reason free money.

A year ago many people preached the same thing about her getting elected. Easy money.

I actually wanted to put money down on Trump winning the election. I wasn't aware of any sites at the time for US people though. I remember one of my coworkers was like "Hey, Donald Trump is thinking about running to be president. He's not gonna win." I was like "He probably will win if he runs because he's rich."

I later told my mother, I think it will be Trump and Hillary as the nominees and Trump will win the election. Too bad I didn't search harder for some betting lines. I could have made some good money.

I think Trump will last until 2020 with no impeachment. If he wasn't to make it I think it would most likely be due to health concerns. I still think he'll make it though. I do not think he will win reelection even though he is the incumbent. This may seem crazy, but Mark Zuckerberg might run for president and win. Sounds bizarre, but it just might happen. I don't think the Democrats will select Hillary to run again. Well, she might run, but I don't think she'll get the nomination.

I could get a good deal betting on Mark, but I'm less confident about him winning than Trump still being president at 2020 and Hillary Clinton not facing any federal charges.

This is one of the silliest markets running right now. Obv never gonna happen.

Great post, glad to see you are betting on politics

Domer, need your opinion on a market.

Who will be Fed Chair on Sunday Feb 4th?

Yellen's term is scheduled to end Saturday Feb 3rd. Powell (who still needs Senate committee and overall confirmation) will either be sworn in on Feb 2nd or Feb 5th.

I have emailed the Federal Reserve multiple times in multiple ways to clarify if she is the "Senate Confirmed Fed Chair" and they keep saying that "She will remain in her post until the new Chair is sworn in"

People on PI are adamant that she is in some sort of pro tempore role and not officially the Fed Chair anymore, but I'm interpreting it as she will be the Fed Chair still on Feb 4 if Powell is not sworn in until Feb 5. Thoughts?

Under no circumstances (short of being reappointed by Trump and reconfirmed by the Senate) would Yellen be the Fed Chairman, her term expires.

It's effectively betting that Obama would be President on Jan 21st 2017 if something had happened to Trump -- impossible, his term was expired.

I mean I get that the law as written says her term shall not exceed four years, but it is then incumbent on the executive branch to execute it.

the executive only makes the appointment, the senate approves it

she would not have senate approval to be fed chairman on feb 4th

yellen is not just hanging around until a new chairman steps in. its vacated...

Rather than asking the relevant govt. branch I would check the likely interpretation of the rules in the event of a 5th Feb newcomer with the site you're betting on.

domer any thoughts on what the odds are as to whether Lauren Mayberry is the hottest committed feminist on the planet? I'm not sure PI has a line fwiw.

Guys, I bought some NO shares for Kidrock running for senate. I got shares at an average of 94 cents. Do you think this was a good bet or a bad one?

I mean, I know he is active on Twitter about his political beliefs and what not. It just seems so unlikely that he'd run. Like under 2%ish.

It is pretty tough when these bets are so leaned to one side though, because I stand to lose a lot more than I am to gain. At the same time it just seems so unlikely to me.

Thoughts?

what is the best odds you get with trump 2020?

For 2020 Betfair has
Trump 3.45
Pence 13
K. Harris 12.5
E. Warren 16
K Gillbrand 18
B. Sanders 19
J. Biden 22

These odds already include return of stake, so 3.45 is like "2.45 to 1" or +245. 18 means "17 to 1" or +1700

Betfair also has odds of 1.76 on Trump making it to 1/1/2020 (assassination voids).

3.45 means a 28.99% chance of a win. 1.76 means a 56.82 chance of making it. So (ignoring the small chance of his being impeached then winning 2020 anyway) in other words the market is saying if Trump makes it to 1/1/2020 as president he has a 51% chance of winning the election.

That's arguable but IMHO it's highly unlikely that this particular market will actually give him those odds to win at the start of the 2020 given he's likely to face a contested nomination - so for people wanting to bet Trump the smart move is now to bet him to make it to 1/1/2020 then subsequently make the bet on him to win the presidency.

Personally I have the bet on him to make 1/1/2020 but probably not going to roll it to into the presidency bet - but anyone who wants to bet him for the second term should pick up the odds for him to survive another 2 years first.

you'd have to factor in the time value of money, which would depreciate the odds on both bets

Anybody playing the government shutdown market?

I'm still pretty firmly in the camp that says the Democrats don't have the balls to shut down the government over DACA.

I only have a small position so far though.

i was a yes on the shutdown, but sold near 50

don't have any shares atm but monitoring it pretty closely

super lame that there is only one market on this

the volatility in this shutdown market is pretty amazing, and great volume in a market for the first time in a month+