All fair points. I'm going to research all these points in a lot more detail.

Interesting, thanks for this.

I'd like to know too.

Ok, apart from a terror attack or other scandal involving the other candidates, you don't see how Le Pen's polling numbers could get any better?

They still have those.

The polls could be way off as they were in the UK General Election. There is a specific problem with the voting intentions of low-skilled, low-income people. They hate everybody and everything including pollsters. They don't talk to pollsters because of this. Therefore the ones in this demographic that actually do tend to be more liberal than the unskilled low-income demographic generally.

In the UK this was a big factor-but even that wouldn't be enough to overcome a 20-point deficit. In the US it was scarcely a factor at all at national level but screwed up the polling at state level.

The problem from the perspective of betting is that Marine Le Pen is 5.0 currently at betfair. If the betting public were acting on the polls alone she'd be 50.0 (at least). The market seems to have intelligently priced the risk of major poll error to the extent that she isn't backable. They may well be overestimating her chances because of Trump/Brexit/UK GE.

I may bet Macron at 1.55.

How does Macron being married to his ex schoolteacher who's old enough to be his mother play, or is that type of chauvinism dead now in France?

Perhaps it doesn't matter when as a French politician he would be assumed to enjoy the company of a wide range of women.

Backed him at 1.56 now Brexit Article 50 date has settled on Betfair.

Wow got my Perdue No by 3/31 order filled at 0.82 overnight to top off that contract for me. Somebody tell me what I'm missing here? Committee vote is today, and people think they will get a full Senate vote (which I believe has to be on the schedule for at least 24 hours), get confirmed, and sworn in, in 2 days. Meanwhile you have multiple senators saying they just hope he's in by the Easter recess. Seems like an easy 10-15% return in 2 days for anyone not already in that contract.

I got out of my No in the mid single digits.

Not sure 82 cents is all that enticing, it's certainly possible he gets through.

WH announced Trump won't throw the first pitch.

I maxed at a higher price, so I'm locked out, but $0.72 on Trump to finish the year as President is just insane.

That said, I'll be happy if he resigns tonight. This bet is the ultimate life hedge.

I'm also life hedged on that one. And to finish 2018.

Impeach is at 82 which is also insane. Hard to get impeached when your own party controls the Congress.

That means people expect a 10 percent chance of resignation or death in the next 9 months.

I don't see any of those things being more than about 4-5%.

I am not sure the Republicans think Trump is "their" party. A lot of the powerful ones hate him.
The healthcare debacle suggests to me that it isn't beyond the realms of possibility they might get rid of him.

Trump wasn't the reason healthcare failed. Pretty sure he would have signed any bill Ryan came up with. Healthcare failed because there isn't really a way to fix healthcare in the US that will make voters happy.

This is too simplistic. If Trump had been extremely popular, the cost to Republicans (and also to Democrats, though to a far lesser extent) of opposing a bill he supported would have been much higher. But because Trump is increasingly radioactive, the Freedom Caucus felt free to flex its muscles, and GOP moderates felt free to resist changes that they worried might bite them in the ass in mid term elections.

My take probably is way too simplistic, but I think Trump is still pretty popular among the Republican voters. He is getting worse day-by-day, so I guess we'll see where he ends up in 2017. What do you think the threshold is in Approval polls for the GOP to get serious about removing him? 20%?

It wasn't the only reason.

You are not going to convince me all those Republicans he insulted are that happy about it.

Was still in the 80's in polling last I saw. They aren't reading or seeing the same news everyone else is or it's someone else's fault or quite frankly, care at all.
Freedom caucus mostly won by more than trump did in their districts.

Trump is living proof no one who voted Republican cares about anything much about tribalism and race issues. Objective reallity has no bearing on his popularity.

Which is exactly why few of them are unwilling to turn on him and why Congress won't be pushing for an impeachment.

So we're left trying to estimate the chance that Trump did or will do something so egregious that it can't be ignored when discussing impeachment.

Nothing short of an unspinnable smoking gun will make the GOP get serious about removing him before 2020. But if he causes the GOP to underperform in the 2018 mid-terms, and if having him at the top of the ticket in 2020 makes it overwhelmingly likely that the GOP will lose control of Congress, then mutiny in the form of a true primary fight is likely. I don't follow Approval trends closely, and I have no idea how any of this translates into Approval ratings.

On board for Trump surviving at 0.75. Seems like the Russiagate stuff is really getting hyped amid all this talk of an immunity deal. Plus it's a great life hedge.

The voters have little to do with this.

I think you are ignoring the bad blood between him and some of the other Republican candidates and their families.

I tend to agree with rococo's analysis though: the one thing protecting him at the moment is that he delivered a comfortable election win. If he can no longer deliver electoral success then they will get rid of him.

I'm not so sure about that. He won with an incredibly thin margin.

Well, the national vote margin was in Hilary's favour.

But that isn't what matters.

It would only take a very small shift in the popular vote to change the EC turnout dramatically.