While it may bode ill for my ability to beat the market, I'm happy you figured out my math for me.

Remember there is a 10% rake within each market. So in a market with a Yes and a No, if you sold No for 51 cents and sold Yes for 51 cents, rather than your winnings being 2 cents, and the rake being .2 cents, the rake will be 4.9 cents, and you'll end up losing 3 cents.

I was just coming here to confirm that that's why I'm an idiot.

Bernie winning UT is a good bet

It should be a lock / if he somehow loses UT there's a good chance he loses every remaining state

Yeah, agreed. Demographics there strongly favor him. I was surprised to see the shares for Bernie at only 77c on PredictIt. Feels like it should be closer to 85c

https://tylerpedigo.com/author/teelo888/

just fyi, the tyler pedigo guy who is making up random numbers and assigning random probabilities to his made-up numbers is a convicted drug dealer who served 6 months and is currently on probation through 2018

http://kool.corrections.ky.gov/KOOL/Details/334875

I still have a few longer term bets and am leaving some on AZ, but I put the rest of my money on UT.

As far as hope, I'm pretty much out. It's going to take more than winning these next 8 states to revive it.

i think he has a good shot to win AZ too. But last week had me shook so I am going for the free money play on Utah.

This was the cover of the biggest paper in UT today

Bets in. Most likely outcomes tomorrow:

GOP.AZ looks like a second LA, with huge Trump early #s that narrow throughout the night. Disclaimer: no idea if they'll tally the early voting #s first. If they don't this could be all over the place (Trump almost def wins anyway, I'm just talking margins.) Bottom line prob = Trump +5-10. If he somehow loses this Cruz becomes 5/1 or better so if you are in the mood for a lottery ticket you should be buying Cruz.Nom, not Cruz.AZ.

GOP.UT obv Cruz wins, get your 3% margins in now. If he can't break 50% he is in big(ger) trouble.

Dem.UT obv Bernie wins.

Dem.AZ I have the strong suspicion Bernie in AZ = money on fire but it's your $.

Yeah, that winds up causing the PI markets to be terribly inefficient which is pretty annoying.

If you can get the Bid price on all of them there's some free money there, but it would require a lot of baby sitting to make sure you don't smashed when the prices shift.

The worst case gain right now would be about $1, so 10c is the juice on that. You would need to buy them all for less than $3.90 to make money.

PI has markets open now for Wisconsin and New York and some **** nobody cares about like Wyoming dem caucuses. Kasich No in WI is somehow under 90c at the moment.

I haven't been following Dem contests much but I assume Hillary to win NY is the freest of money?

Somehow Hillary.UT jumped 5% on PI. Any news ?

Probably, but I suppose it's possible no one gives a **** and Bernie wins because only his supporters actually vote.

Word of warning to people who have AZ shares - some state law says that they can't release anything until an hour after polls close. So the "% tallied" will make a huge jump

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/s...62622237995009

Pro tip for tonight: Bernie.AZ is trading at 16c with a 26 point poll deficit. Cruz.AZ is trading at 8c with a 13 point deficit. One of these is wrong

Pro tip for two weeks from now: Trump.WI is trading at 70% on Betfair which is probably pretty close. It's at 54% on PI which is probably not remotely close.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016...o-well-n543641

you have four hours to wash the gasoline off the pile

adanthar, any early thoughts on Hilldog in WI? She's 27% on PI, 538 polling shows them basically tied though with Hillary's support trending downward.

betfair has no action on this which is a real shame because that sounds like a two for one special

For 0 votesin in UT and ID Hildawg seems awfully low.

She had a quick bounce early in UT when the 1% results were closer than expected. It's hard to have confidence to play it though because Predictit servers can't be trusted. They performed better tonight however.

For some reason, Sanders swonged up 25% in Hawaii 20 minutes ago or so on zero news. I managed to get in and look forward to banking the monies once that recovers.

Right now RNOM16.Cruz and RNOM16.Kasich are only about 3% apart.