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Originally Posted by maxtower
... Cons:
One major downside is a 5% cashout fee.
Another downside is a 10% winnings fee, but that's not too bad because it's only on your winnings. If you make a $100 bet and win $0.10, you pay $0.01 unlike sports betting where the whole bet is taxed...
I missed the cash-out fee. I ship $100 to Predictit and bet Trump gets the nom @73c. If I win, then cash, I cash 0.95*(100+100*(0.9*0.23/0.73)) = $121.93. So my odds are -456. Am I doing this right?
If so, this is what we've got...
2016-2-25 | Predictit | Paddy Power |
Trump | -456 | -250 |
Rubio | +265 | +200 |
Cruz | +1179 | +3300 |
Carson | -- | +15000 |
Kasich | +2759 | +3300 |
Ryan | +2759 | +10000 |
Romney | -- | +10000 |
Yikes.
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... There is an $850 limit per contract...
I'm not sure what this means. Can an account holder have more than one 'contract'?
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... Free money: Right now on predicitit you can buy Hillary to win at 48c and buy "next prez is not female" for 44c. That's 92c for a $1...
Err no. Cashing out, the Hillary "do" is -115, the Hillary "don't" is +103. It isn't even an overlay. But even if you do find an arbitrage situation, it's always going to be more +ev to get one side of the action at PP and one at Predictit -vs- getting both sides at Predictit.
And I'll ask again, how much can I even get down on Hillary at those prices? How much volume can I arbitrage anyways? I'm guessing like $20 max... so my free money is like what, 6 cents?