If anyone is really degenerate, Chris Kennedy might have some small value at 8c on Predictit in the Dem primary for governor in IL today.

On the one hand, I look like an idiot so far. On the other, I'm pleasantly surprised by the Daniel Biss numbers.

I'm pretty ignorant of Wisconsin politics, but I have no idea why Michael Screnock is such a dog in their Supreme Court race to Rebecca Dallet. I mean, I hope she wins, but I think it and the treasurer issue are the only important statewide races. It seems like something republicans excel at.

On the bright side, I can probably just bet against whatever dumb ass thing pops into my head.

I'll snake that strategy for the tweet markets, they seem to be where the $ is at, plus or minus

The MOV for AZ08 was crazy, at one point I'm fighting to get some extra shares at .90 and maybe 5 min later I almost sold them all for .05. Surfing those waves is what guys like Domer must have down, I sit, watch and hope. I'm just glad I didn't piss the shares away for a few cents, I seems to be a bigger mistake than going down with the ship. I've regretted that in the past, Shulkin.

NO on whether Trump will receive the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize is free money.

no it isn't

I confess that I didn't do a deep dive on the proclivities of the individual Committee members. Is it really possible that a committee of Norwegian professors, lawyers, etc., would award Trump the Nobel Peace prize, even if Trump's high-risk strategy of tweeting about the button, the Rocket Man, etc., contributed to a promise from North Korea to pursue denuclearization.

Is there another example of someone who won the prize mainly through brinksmanship. Maybe Arafat and Rabin in the 1990s? Or Kissinger in the 1970s?

As controversial as those people were, I'm not sure any of them were as widely despised by Europeans as I assume Trump is. Maybe I'm wrong.

the methods of POTUS and personal feelings of the award givers seem a little moot...if the two leaders point to Trump as being responsible, and the Korean War ends after 70 years with a peace treaty....kinda seems like their hands would be tied.

“Will a federal criminal charge against Andrew McCabe be confirmed by December 31, 2018?”

Seems like an easy “no” here, an I missing anything? Ditto for Comey.

Holy ****! I just realized PI has yet to close this market.

yeah, i'm maxed on "No", its gonna be open for years at this pace, unless PI changes course (and that is not an exaggeration)

fun times on PredictIt these past few days

rosenstein firing then unfiring

kavanaugh melt down

what's the view on the congressional elections? To an ignorant Brit, democrat majority looks reasonable value at about 1.48

For the house, yes. For the Senate, bet the farm on a Republican held Senate or 50/50 split. Dems need to win all current toss ups and score an upset in TN and TX to win control, And that's reallllllly unlikely to happen. (Though I'm more optimistic than most on TN. Bredesen is a well known name amongst the young and everybody on both sides hates Marsha Blackburn. The only reason she has a chance is because of "my team"ing)

^^
Yes sorry meant the house - no value in laying them in the Senate

good luck tomorrow all bettors

Bredesen +325 on Bovada seems decent

way better odds on PredictIt

Wound up taking D House -300, Rosen senate -139, Sisolak GOV +100, Nelson senate -151 and Gillum GOV -200

Good luck me, let's hope for some serious turnout.

I also put a little on on Romney and Sanders to win their senate races, not the worst 1% return of free money at -10000 for a one day sweat

I've got D house -300 and Gillum on predictit at an average of 55c

Can get Rep NO on predictit for 19c right now, but nate has Bredesen as 1 in 5 (20.1%), so not exactly amazing odds either way imo. Def don't bet +325 tho.

Sinema on predictit seems like a p solid bet though. Bovada has Sinema at even, nate has sinema as 5 in 8 (62%) classic model and 2 in 3 (67.1%) in the deluxe model, but shes currently a slight dog on predictit. Was able to pick up some 46c Rep NO.

I got in way too early on the senate market (dems not losing ground) and nunes no market (looks like a pretty terrible bet right now).

On Predictit, I got maxed out on Democrats to take house ~$0.63 over the last few months. It's my biggest position. Have big positions on Nelson in FL, Rosen in NV, and Sinema in AZ. Hedging by betting on Kemp and Kobach to successfully rig their elections.