Betting on Elections thread - Page 73 - Politics and Economics

He listens to EVERY SINGLE TRUMP SPEECH (at 2x speed ofc) and has learned the following: Hillary has Parkinsons and is followed around by a neurosurgeon disguised as a security guy, Trump is going to pivot to BLACK LIVES MATTER any time now and secure up to 30% of black vote, and Assange has a bombshell leak to drop any time now that will end it all. Also EMAILS.

10-30-2016 , 05:59 PM

#1803

theonepunter

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 370

If Evan Mcmullin would just like to win Utah making in nearly impossible for Trump to win that would be appreciated. The only way Trump wins this is if he just about takes New Hampshire which is not going to happen.

10-30-2016 , 06:08 PM

#1804

cookies4u

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 467

what are the odds that Clinton loses one of PA/NV (or both) ?

10-30-2016 , 06:50 PM

#1805

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,424

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookies4u

what are the odds that Clinton loses one of PA/NV (or both) ?

PA: 0
NV: like 1%

10-30-2016 , 06:54 PM

#1806

verneer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,971

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofball

PA: 0
NV: like 1%

Why do you give Trump so little equity in Nevada?

10-30-2016 , 07:06 PM

#1807

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,424

Quote:

Originally Posted by verneer

Why do you give Trump so little equity in Nevada?

Faulty memory. It's 9%

10-30-2016 , 08:06 PM

#1808

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

There have been 0 votes cast in PA afaik, and tons of votes cast in NV (guessing like 30% by this point).

NV is pretty much unwinnable given the early votes so far, whereas PA could *theoretically* swing based on last minute shenanigans.

10-30-2016 , 08:10 PM

#1809

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by plzd0nate

Alex's confidence scares me. What does he know? Lol

he knows nothing

and there is a higher than 0% chance he is trying to scam/freeroll

10-30-2016 , 08:13 PM

#1810

Jbrochu

banned

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,054

Quote:

Originally Posted by domer2

he knows nothing

and there is a higher than 0% chance he is trying to scam/freeroll

Well now you've done it.

10-30-2016 , 10:25 PM

#1811

rakes

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 3,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Wice

I would like to bet up to 250k more on Trump, or btc equivalent. I can escrow btc. I want online book lines which should be 11:4, but especially for large bets we can discuss as the lines are moving. I am also interested in a Trump >= 320 EV prop.

Please Skype: alexwice or PM.

Sent from my SM-G925W8 using Tapatalk

alex, we agreed on my 5.5 btc to your 2 btc pending escrow. Will you have timex pm me once you set that up?

thanks

10-30-2016 , 10:42 PM

#1812

Alex Wice

aka Double Ice

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 5,951

I have sent to CPHoya who is the escrow for my bet vs El rata $500usd vs $1375, and I consider this bet booked. Terms below

Quote:

Okay I will PayPal him $500 vs your $1375 usd. Betfair resolution: meaning if they pay trump for prez bettors then I win, if they pay Clinton bettors you win, if they pay neither then it's a push.

@rakes As I pm'ed, we have to use another escrow option.

10-30-2016 , 10:46 PM

#1813

El Rata

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 31,720

sent my part to hoya as well

gl (to me)

10-30-2016 , 11:03 PM

#1814

Alex Wice

aka Double Ice

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 5,951

My 1000usd on trump to LetsGambool's 2750 on clinton w betfair resolution, we are already booked just recording that here.

10-30-2016 , 11:42 PM

#1815

Kazuya

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 582

Annoyed that I blew my load when Clinton was -500, but meh seems kind of results oriented and I can scrounge up a bit more. Just checked and I have some $ on stars and don't mind throwing more $ on Clinton. Was going to just hold steady with what I have but whatever.

Anyone in this thread know who is a reputable escrow we (me and Alex Wice if he is interested) can both send to on Stars? You don't know me, I don't know you, so it's not booked until the escrow person both receives and I confirm in this thread (I'll bet 4k USD for 1455 I believe?) Let me know if interested/can book on Stars

10-30-2016 , 11:54 PM

#1816

WittyName26

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 940

odds that Johnson gets >4% nationally? i can bet either way -120 #help

10-31-2016 , 12:11 AM

#1817

cookies4u

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 467

Predictit being down is great, now i can finally get things done instead of clicking refresh to see how my balance changes every 90 seconds like a degenerate

10-31-2016 , 12:31 AM

#1818

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

Received from both.

10-31-2016 , 12:57 AM

#1819

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Quote:

Originally Posted by WittyName26

odds that Johnson gets >4% nationally? i can bet either way -120 #help

Over MIGHT be +EV. He's at 5.0 in the RCP tracker, but declining and third party voters are unreliable. I probably wouldn't bet.

10-31-2016 , 01:24 AM

#1820

WittyName26

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 940

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

Over MIGHT be +EV. He's at 5.0 in the RCP tracker, but declining and third party voters are unreliable. I probably wouldn't bet.

thank you for the reply

10-31-2016 , 01:33 AM

#1821

Alex Wice

aka Double Ice

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 5,951

I bet 3btc on Trump to amurophil's 8.25btc on Clinton, betfair resolution as stated above, I consider this bet already booked.

10-31-2016 , 01:34 AM

#1822

amurophil

banned

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,972

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Wice

I bet 3btc on Trump to amurophil's 8.25btc on Clinton, betfair resolution as stated above, I consider this bet already booked.

quoting to confirm

10-31-2016 , 01:43 AM

#1823

rakes

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 3,694

Alex bet his 2 btc to my 5.5 btc. Betfair resolution, we are using malkasgambit as escrow. I have hilldog he has trump

10-31-2016 , 02:43 AM

#1824

Csaba

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,131

Any opinions on betting on control of the Senate? 538 have the Democrats at 71% to win control. However, they're 3.35 on Betfair whilst the Republicans are at 3.15. I'm not sure why there's such a large discrepancy and what constitutes a draw in Betfair's T&Cs.

10-31-2016 , 08:48 AM

#1825

theonepunter

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 370

Quote:

Originally Posted by Csaba

I saw this as well, a draw is just an equal number of Senators of Democrats and Republicans in the Senate. Remember not all of the Senators are up for election. It's a good price for sure, but I think the price is like that is because so many races are razor thin for the Democrats.

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