Bayes' Theorem Suggests Obama Won The Election - Politics and Economics

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Bayes' Theorem Suggests Obama Won The Election

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11-12-2012 , 10:11 PM

Nichlemn

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Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 9,478

Nate Silver gave Obama a 90.9% chance of winning on election day, but he did not update this probability. However, the probability that Obama would win given that Obama was reported by all major new sources to have won many more electoral votes than Romney would be close to 100%. Therefore, I believe it is very likely that Obama did in fact win the election.

11-12-2012 , 10:12 PM

Jake7777

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Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 7,395

A+

11-12-2012 , 10:30 PM

Trolly McTrollson

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 32,877

Voted 5 stars.

11-12-2012 , 10:38 PM

pvn

Guest

Posts: n/a

Still an outside chance for ROGUE ELECTORS to vote for RON PAUL.

11-13-2012 , 12:20 AM

Turn Prophet

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,558

Don't bring your demon math into this! They're still counting in Arizona! Checkmate, Obamatards.

11-13-2012 , 12:22 AM

tomdemaine

Just tries harder

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 20,065

Funny, but locked!

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