Quote:
Originally Posted by jungle survivor
I'm not totally clear on what you see as the ramifications of this policy, but I will expand on my own thinking.
That graph says 58% of Catholics agree with the Obama administration while 37% disagree. Exit polling from 2008 has Obama with 54% of the Catholic vote, McCain 45%. I take the combination of these data points to suggest that opponents of the Obama administration on this issue are overwhelmingly likely to be GOP voters that he would never swing to his side regardless, and so this policy is not a mistake for the election.
You may be right. But it may be that many Obama voters, non church attenders, will not like their Church being forced into this position. It may be that any non-Catholics will be concern about the same thing.
There are, I hope, millions who value the first amendment. The questions include, "How concerned will this action make these millions?" As well as " How many Catholic will resent this action as an attack on their Church."?
If you are right, "opponents of the Obama administration on this issue are overwhelmingly likely to be GOP voters that he would never swing to his side " that could still leave 10% of the Catholic voters among those who voted for Obama and opposes Obama's "attack" against their church. A fraction, say 1/3, of these would represent about 0.6% of the US population.
How many state's electoral votes could be changed by 0.6%?
Of course it will be more complicated than that. Different areas have far higher/lower percentages of Catholics than other areas. Some states, many in the south, will not be effected much . Other in the rust belt will be effected more. Some groups, Hispanics for one, may be effected more/less than others.
I just do not see this as having a simple to call result for 2012.
Last edited by JohnWilkes; 02-09-2012 at 01:50 AM.