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Assange Says Hacking Wasn't Russian Gov't Assange Says Hacking Wasn't Russian Gov't
View Poll Results: Who's Telling the Truth Regarding Email Hacking?
Julian Assange
25 30.12%
CIA
58 69.88%

01-04-2017 , 04:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
We're going back to pretending there's only been one piece of evidence ever?

Fun! That hasn't happened many times over in this thread already!

A good analogy would be that you guys are arguing against the idea that sometimes it rains and sometimes it doesn't. We can't look at any historical weather data other than the current day we're on. So it's either always raining or it never rains. Considering multiple data points is misleading!
https://theintercept.com/2016/12/14/...ts-not-enough/

Here is an analytical write up from The Intercept about the whole Russian hacking.

The answer is, we will never know who did it. Only 2 people do. Julian Assange and the person that leaked it to him. Neither will divulge the truth about it and the circumstantial evidence tying this to Putin is laughable.

I am supposed to believr Putin hacked the Podesta email account with a phishing scam, saw Clinton's wall street speeches and immediately tells his stooges to get this to wikileaks? That isn't occam's razzor at all.
01-04-2017 , 04:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien

The answer is, we will never know who did it. Only 2 people do.
No. We do know. Funny how Trump was much less shy about blaming China for cyber attacks and calling them acts of war, wasn't it?
01-04-2017 , 04:51 PM
That write up is moronic. We can't trust the security company who caught Russia in the act because they, the security firm, was being paid to find out who was doing the attacking by the DNC?

Give me a break. No one is dumb enough to follow that line of "logic". It's nothing more than the author handwaving evidence he doesn't want to have to deal with.
01-04-2017 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
Only 2 people do. Julian Assange and the person that leaked it to him.
wat
01-04-2017 , 04:56 PM
https://medium.com/@trentlapinski/ev...62f#.lbx832xny

More analysis on the Russian hacking and the FBI report.

The more scrutiny this report goes under the more it falls apart.

There are plenty of computer cyber experts not employed by the DNC that have been ripping apart this Russian hacking "evidence".

This isn't going to work and Dems are doubling down on it.
01-04-2017 , 05:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 57 On Red
No. We do know. Funny how Trump was much less shy about blaming China for cyber attacks and calling them acts of war, wasn't it?
No you don't know who did it. Most definitely not from any report published by the White House or intelligence committee so far.

http://arstechnica.com/security/2016...ly-to-rage-on/

Here is more tech analysis of the hacks. Notice how this story is falling apart the more scrutinized it is?
01-04-2017 , 05:16 PM
Employed by the dnc. Just lol at you. Such pathetic nonsense.
01-04-2017 , 05:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
This isn't going to work and Dems are doubling down on it.
The problem with your line here is that the outrage against Russian hacking is bipartisan. Why would McCain, Graham and McConnell go along with some fabricated Democrat attack?
01-04-2017 , 05:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
https://theintercept.com/2016/12/14/...ts-not-enough/

Here is an analytical write up from The Intercept about the whole Russian hacking.

The answer is, we will never know who did it. Only 2 people do. Julian Assange and the person that leaked it to him. Neither will divulge the truth about it and the circumstantial evidence tying this to Putin is laughable.

I am supposed to believr Putin hacked the Podesta email account with a phishing scam, saw Clinton's wall street speeches and immediately tells his stooges to get this to wikileaks? That isn't occam's razzor at all.
how does assange know?
01-04-2017 , 06:04 PM
http://www.robertmlee.org/critiques-...steppe-report/

Quote:
This ultimately seems like a very rushed report put together by multiple teams working different data sets and motivations. It is my opinion and speculation that there were some really good government analysts and operators contributing to this data and then report reviews, leadership approval processes, and sanitation processes stripped out most of the value and left behind a very confusing report trying to cover too much while saying too little.
I can go on and on with critiques from cyber security firms. This FBI report did nothing to show "proof" of Russian hacking. We don't know anything about who did the hacking.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
The problem with your line here is that the outrage against Russian hacking is bipartisan. Why would McCain, Graham and McConnell go along with some fabricated Democrat attack?
Lindsey Graham and McCain are bat**** crazy with foreign policy. And if you haven't noticed. Republicans in congress are not the brightest bulb in the box, considering the Ethics committee stupidity they tried to pull yesterday.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindse...Foreign_policy

Quote:
Graham supports an interventionist foreign policy.[104] Graham and his fellow Senators John McCain and Joe Lieberman, who were frequently dubbed "the three amigos", travelled widely, pushing for American military intervention, particularly after the September 11 attacks. Their influence reached its zenith in 2007 as President Bush advocated for his surge strategy in Iraq, declining shortly before Lieberman retired from the Senate in 2013.[105][106] Kelly Ayotte, who joined the Senate in 2011, has been considered Lieberman's replacement in the group.[107][108]

John McCain and Lindsey Graham, Al-Faw Palace, Iraq, 2007
On November 6, 2010, at the Halifax International Security Forum, Graham called for a pre-emptive military strike to weaken the Iranian regime.[109] He has also argued that "the U.S. needs to keep at least 10,000 troops in Iraq into 2012," saying that "If we're not smart enough to work with the Iraqis to have 10,000 to 15,000 American troops in Iraq in 2012, Iraq could go to hell."[110]

On July 16, 2013, Graham suggested the United States should consider boycotting the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, because of "what the Russian government is doing throughout the world."[122] Graham also said the U.S. should aim to "drive the Russian economy into the ground."[123]
I wouldn't listen to anything Graham has to say foreign policy wise since he is a disgusting war hawk.

Maybe he just really hates Russia and this is his opportunity to keep ****ting on them.
01-04-2017 , 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
Does this mean that you don't think this is evidence pointing to Russia at all? That it's misrepresented?

Of course, when it comes to hacking I wouldn't expect to ever see 100% airtight proof. So I'm not perfectly convinced by the evidence, but it seems to me that either the hacking originated from Russia or someone wanted it to look like the hacking originated in Russia.

If the hacking originated from Russia, then I'd say it's extremely likely (>90%) that the hacking is connected to the Russian government.

If someone wanted the hacking to appear to originate from Russia...I'm stumped at who could pull this off. China, perhaps Iran. Israel...Saudi Arabia? Some terrorist org? I think we can rule out 14 year old kids. Maybe a whistleblowing org such as Wikileaks itself or Anonymous? Why make it look like Russia, then?

The US behind the hacking? Why? Definitely possible, but doesn't make any sense.

Trump-aligned hackers? Seems above their capability, but can't rule it out.

DNC leaker? Completely implausible.

I'm going to have to go with Occam's razor here. I'd say it's over 80% that this was a Russian job. Convince me I'm wrong.
You still have me on the wrong side, man. I agree about the likely source. I'm just saying the evidence--in this case, a bunch of conjectures piled upon each other in a string of tweets by someone appropriating Allie Brosh's art--is not convincing. You think this garbage would make it past the laugh test in a CFAA case?

Relevant: https://theintercept.com/2017/01/04/...og-they-arent/

Last edited by DrModern; 01-04-2017 at 06:37 PM. Reason: Adding link
01-04-2017 , 07:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrModern
You still have me on the wrong side, man. I agree about the likely source. I'm just saying the evidence--in this case, a bunch of conjectures piled upon each other in a string of tweets by someone appropriating Allie Brosh's art--is not convincing.
If you agree about the likely source, then what evidence are you looking at? Again, if you are just saying you are not 100% convinced then I'm with you. That the same account that hacked podesta is attempting to hack targets of interest to Russia is not inconsequential.

Quote:
You think this garbage would make it past the laugh test in a CFAA case?
I'm no lawyer, so I have no idea. I'd guess no. I'm not looking for beyond-a-reasonable-doubt level evidence here, and I have no problem if people say they have doubts about the Russian conclusion.

Complete rejection of Russian involvement or claiming that all offenders are equally likely just isn't reasonable.
01-04-2017 , 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
https://medium.com/@trentlapinski/ev...62f#.lbx832xny

More analysis on the Russian hacking and the FBI report.
Sorry, who is this guy?

Quote:
My short bio: I am Trent Lapinski, a 29 year old from San Francisco, California. I am the former CEO of CyberChimps Responsive WordPress Themes.
The ex-CEO of a company making WordPress themes. Right...

Any other hot takes from him about Democrat-related news?

Quote:
If any of the e-mails are work related or classified that means both Hillary and Huma Abedin lied to the FBI during their original investigation. Lying to the FBI is illegal, and that alone is enough to prosecute Hillary Clinton and Huma Abedin irregardless of the other potential violations of the law that were committed. This story is still developing, but considering the fact the FBI released this letter just 11-days before the election means they found something serious..
So basically you've Googled for people questioning the report and you're quoting some idiot blogger who has no qualifications and no idea what he's talking about. Also, he uses "irregardless".

Moving on....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
No you don't know who did it. Most definitely not from any report published by the White House or intelligence committee so far.

http://arstechnica.com/security/2016...ly-to-rage-on/

Here is more tech analysis of the hacks. Notice how this story is falling apart the more scrutinized it is?
This article is criticising the quality of the report, not questioning the position of the administration. This is from the last paragraph:

Quote:
In fairness, the reticence in both cases is likely justified by the interest in protecting sources and methods used to detect such attacks. And as Lee was quick to note, strong technical evidence is likely to be included in reports to Congress that later may be declassified.
And from Lee's article:

Quote:
I understand that it is always hard to publish things from the government. In my time working in the U.S. Intelligence Community on such cases it was extremely rare that anything was released publicly and when it was it was almost always disappointing as the best material and information had been stripped out.
Quote:
This ultimately seems like a very rushed report put together by multiple teams working different data sets and motivations. It is my opinion and speculation that there were some really good government analysts and operators contributing to this data and then report reviews, leadership approval processes, and sanitation processes stripped out most of the value and left behind a very confusing report trying to cover too much while saying too little.

We must do better as a community. This report is a good example of how a really strong strategic message (POTUS statement) and really good data (government and private sector combination) can be opened to critique due to poor report writing.
Again, being criticised here is the writing of the report. Lee is not saying that he thinks the claims of the administration are wrong, or that the report contains misinformation, or anything like that.

It would be one thing if your position was that Russia probably did the hacking but we don't have enough evidence to know. That's reasonable. Your claim instead is that the government is lying and that "this story is falling apart". That's a very different claim, unsupported by any of the links you've Googled up.

The technical evidence is pretty good, but circumstantial. It's not good enough right now for a "beyond reasonable doubt" conviction, but you're proposing as your alternative a vast partisan conspiracy where it makes no sense for most of the actors to be involved. This is the meeting you're imagining taking place:

Quote:
Obama: Guys, thanks all for coming. I wanted to announce that we're going to blame the DNC and Podesta hacks on Russia. It was actually just insiders leaking but I'm going to need all of you to independently write reports detailing a Russian hack attempt. You've all been given dossiers containing evidence that we made up of Russian hacks.

[Assembled heads of intelligence agencies and private security companies]: Why are we doing this?

Obama: Well, I'm hoping to damage the incoming President-Elect. It's really a partisan effort to discredit him and tie him to Russia. I know he's unpopular and the people who do like him won't care, in fact they're probably glad the Democrats got hacked because they like Putin now and lock her up, Pizzagate etc etc, but I figure why not create a huge conspiracy anyway?

[Assembled heads of intelligence agencies and private security companies]: Yeah, why not? We're in!
At least 9/11 truthers had plausible motives for the creation of their giant conspiracy.
01-04-2017 , 07:58 PM
Well somebody buys the conspiracy.

01-04-2017 , 08:05 PM
i'm sure the department of info wars will do a good job spreading the kind of "information" trump wants out there
01-04-2017 , 08:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsjefe
Well somebody buys the conspiracy.

But not the FBI.

Been a few days since I said this but F trump voters.
01-04-2017 , 08:14 PM
One problem I had with this article (and I think the intercept does a similar thing):

is this claim:

Quote:
The 13-page report, which was jointly published Thursday by the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI, billed itself as an indictment of sorts that would finally lay out the intelligence community's case that Russian government operatives carried out hacks on the Democratic National Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Clinton Campaign Chief John Podesta and leaked much of the resulting material.
Did it? Where?

If it is supposed to be an "indictment" then why is most of it about preventing cyber attacks?
01-04-2017 , 08:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
I wouldn't listen to anything Graham has to say foreign policy wise since he is a disgusting war hawk.

Maybe he just really hates Russia and this is his opportunity to keep ****ting on them.
I admit it's going to be hard to find a Republican who is not a disgusting war hawk.
01-04-2017 , 08:44 PM
This is from the link in the tweetstream that bobman linked to:

https://www.secureworks.com/research...oogle-accounts

Quote:
Most of the targeted accounts are linked to intelligence gathering or information control within Russia or former Soviet states. The majority of the activity appears to focus on Russia’s military involvement in eastern Ukraine; for example, the email address targeted by the most phishing attempts (nine) was linked to a spokesperson for the Ukrainian prime minister. Other targets included individuals in political, military, and diplomatic positions in former Soviet states, as well as journalists, human rights organizations, and regional advocacy groups in Russia.
Quote:
More than half (53%) of the targeted authors and journalists are Russia or Ukraine subject matter experts (see Figure 7). It is likely that the Russian state has an interest in how it is portrayed in the media.
Quote:
TG-4127 targeted high-profile Syrian rebel leaders, including a leader of the Syrian National Coalition. Russian forces have supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime since September 2015, so it is likely the threat actors are seeking to gain intelligence on rebel forces to assist Russian and Assad regime military operations.
So either Russian interests were behind the hack or someone went through A LOT of trouble to make it look like Russia was behind the hack. Hundreds and hundreds of phishing attempts. Repeated phishing attempts of targets that apparently weren't compromised. It just does not seem plausible that some other country would spend so much effort setting up Russia like this.
01-04-2017 , 08:46 PM
Greenwald, scourge of inadequately supported claims, has concluded that the allegations of Russia being behind the hacks are "ranting" about "imaginary Kremlin plots":

01-04-2017 , 08:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
https://theintercept.com/2016/12/14/...ts-not-enough/

Here is an analytical write up from The Intercept about the whole Russian hacking.

The answer is, we will never know who did it. Only 2 people do. Julian Assange and the person that leaked it to him. Neither will divulge the truth about it and the circumstantial evidence tying this to Putin is laughable.

I am supposed to believr Putin hacked the Podesta email account with a phishing scam, saw Clinton's wall street speeches and immediately tells his stooges to get this to wikileaks? That isn't occam's razzor at all.
The actual Occam's Razor explanation here, by the way, is that NSA or someone has direct confirmation that Russia was behind this that they are unwilling to make public because it would compromise their sources and methods. The idea that the notoriously liberal intelligence community (!) and FBI (!!!) are just making **** up for the sheer pleasure of infuriating their new boss is laughable.
01-04-2017 , 09:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
The actual Occam's Razor explanation here, by the way, is that NSA or someone has direct confirmation that Russia was behind this that they are unwilling to make public because it would compromise their sources and methods. The idea that the notoriously liberal intelligence community (!) and FBI (!!!) are just making **** up for the sheer pleasure of infuriating their new boss is laughable.
This, but also I meant to quote that Tien post earlier:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
I am supposed to believr Putin hacked the Podesta email account with a phishing scam, saw Clinton's wall street speeches and immediately tells his stooges to get this to wikileaks? That isn't occam's razzor at all.
Most likely is that the Russians just hacked this information as a matter of course. We know from the reports that there were intrusion attempts against a range of journalists and various other targets. This is just what nation-states do, all the time, as part of intelligence-gathering efforts. Complaining about that is just pearl-clutching, the US does it too (remember the revelations that they spied on Merkel, etc etc).

What's new here is that information was selectively released by the Russians to try to influence the election. They probably didn't even bother reading most of it before releasing it. Selective release of private communications is virtually always damaging, it's the reason privacy laws and the Fourth Amendment exist.
01-04-2017 , 09:20 PM
ChrisV and bobman

We'll see soon enough on Friday. If that comprehensive intelligence report Obama orders doesn't give any direct evidence, it will confirm what I thought about this entire situation. If it does offer very convincing evidence, then I will be willing to admit I am wrong.

But telling me "We can't give you the real evidence just believe us" is a line of bull. That FBI report was a massive letdown.
01-04-2017 , 09:21 PM
One reason the conspiritarding is particularly weird is that people's starting assumption is that governments are doing nefarious things behind closed doors... and the conclusion from this is that it isn't likely that Russia, essentially a dictatorship, is engaging in covert cyber ops to find out what is going on inside one of America's major political parties? Wouldn't one assume that is the case even absent evidence of specific intrusions?
01-04-2017 , 09:24 PM
If the US doesn't name the names of all the spies on active duty in Russia, along with pictures and their location, WE CAN NEVER KNOW IF RUSSIA DID THE CYBER

      
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