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Old 01-01-2018, 01:49 PM   #1326
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Re: America & North Korea

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Originally Posted by microbet View Post
China doesn't want NK to fall apart. Also lots of Chinese, rich Chinese, benefit from trade with NK. NK is cheap labor for them.
Why would NK fall apart without a nuke program? America would spend an erg of energy worrying about them.

It is in everyone's best interest for them not to have a nuke program. We have zero intent of invading them if they aren't a threat to the US mainland. The have more money to spend on productive things....
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Old 01-01-2018, 01:54 PM   #1327
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Re: Rocket Man :Kobayashi Maru Edition....

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I have little understanding of psychology but he is just a bit idiosyncratic, would you not say? Seriously, do you not think he is a little more likely than say France to do something irrational?

I understand he thinks Iraq was "regime changed" by America because Saddam didn't actually have large scale WMD to threaten America. But he has all the deterrence to America in actuality that he needs by being able to flatten Seoul conventionally and inflicting a million casualties..
"All the deterrence he needs" seems silly to me given USA#1 has had the capacity to blow up the Earth a dozen times over. Kim has Seoul hostage and now he can credibly deter the US. No one is going to **** with him any time soon. Seems like he's played a weak hand exceptionally well.

I'd also point out that "rational" actors brought us ridiculously close to Armageddon during the Cuban missile crisis.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:00 PM   #1328
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Why would NK fall apart without a nuke program? America would spend an erg of energy worrying about them.

It is in everyone's best interest for them not to have a nuke program. We have zero intent of invading them if they aren't a threat to the US mainland. The have more money to spend on productive things....
Sanctions could make NK fall apart. Chinese pressure. Like you said, people picking seeds from manure.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:04 PM   #1329
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Re: America & North Korea

np9112602179914:

seems like your mind is already made up.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:06 PM   #1330
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Re: America & North Korea

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Just curious how that negotiating thing has been working out since 1953 and more recently the last 25 years?
Negotiations would have worked out much better if we'd have followed through with our commitments from 1994.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconv...-from-it-80578
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:12 PM   #1331
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Re: Rocket Man :Kobayashi Maru Edition....

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"All the deterrence he needs" seems silly to me given USA#1 has had the capacity to blow up the Earth a dozen times over. Kim has Seoul hostage and now he can credibly deter the US. No one is going to **** with him any time soon. Seems like he's played a weak hand exceptionally well.

I'd also point out that "rational" actors brought us ridiculously close to Armageddon during the Cuban missile crisis.

MAD is only relevant of the actors are sensible.

Kim can't really checkmate the USA at this point. He can't have any confidence of getting a retaliatory strike off if America decides to "come heavy".

Of course, Kim doesn't seem to consider we have no reason to invade NK if they aren't a threat with nukes. The have no resources we might want as in the middle east. They have a blood brother hedgemon on their border to "defend" them. We'd have zero reason to attach NK sans nukes. They already hold Seoul hostage....

And rational actors did actually prevent Armageddon. It was a true believer Castro who was in favor of "taking one for team Socialismo". The Ruskies weren't anxious to pull the trigger and they didn't.

Curtis Le May.... well.... thanks for civilian control.......
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:17 PM   #1332
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Re: America & North Korea

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np9112602179914:

seems like your mind is already made up.
I have an opinion but i would be happy to hear a better tangible suggestion to stop Kim from developing a gaggle of thermonuclear devices with the ability to hit the USA with impunity.....

Quite frankly I wouldn't sleep well in Seoul or Tokyo the day after Kim has a credible attack capacity over the USA... because I cannot think of a single thing to prevent him from invading the south.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:19 PM   #1333
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Re: Rocket Man :Kobayashi Maru Edition....

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I'd also point out that "rational" actors brought us ridiculously close to Armageddon during the Cuban missile crisis.
It's been *months* since South Korea had a mass uprising to remove the daughter of a dictator from being head of state. Isn't it about time nuclear weapons were forced on them?
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:20 PM   #1334
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Re: America & North Korea

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Their national interest is to see Rocket Man torment America so Pres. Xi can dangle some obscure "getting tough" with the north (to keep favorable trade intact) and keep playing the delay game til NP perfects their ICBM's and someone like Fauxcahontis or Bernie is elected and the thread from America disappears.
It's very hard to take you seriously when you insist on using Trump's moronic nicknames.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:25 PM   #1335
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Re: America & North Korea

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Negotiations would have worked out much better if we'd have followed through with our commitments from 1994.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconv...-from-it-80578
You really think so.... 4 US administrations left NK with no other choice than to peruse ICBM's???

Again.... someone tell me why America is going to reasonably invade NK unprovoked?????
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:27 PM   #1336
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Re: America & North Korea

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I have an opinion but i would be happy to hear a better tangible suggestion to stop Kim from developing a gaggle of thermonuclear devices with the ability to hit the USA with impunity.....

Quite frankly I wouldn't sleep well in Seoul or Tokyo the day after Kim has a credible attack capacity over the USA...because I cannot think of a single thing to prevent him from invading the south.
Hit the US with impunity?

Negotiations worked. Sanctions have only been valuable as pressure for negotiations to start.

If we were half way smart we could redo 1994 and peacefully end the NK nuclear program. But we're not. The mix of war mongers who see every relationship as adversarial (eg you and China) and western interests who make a ****load of money off the military make this nearly impossible.

KJU wants to stay rich and in power and thus alive. Keep that in mind and negotiations aren't so hard.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:28 PM   #1337
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Re: America & North Korea

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It's very hard to take you seriously when you insist on using Trump's moronic nicknames.
More likely you don't have a reasonable course of action that gets America out of Kim's bulls-eye (you feel better now?)
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:33 PM   #1338
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Re: America & North Korea

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They might if they were told accept them and have some skin in the game or we go home and leave you to the tender mercies of Xi, Kim and Putin.
You don't think South Korea and Japan have "skin in the game"?
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:37 PM   #1339
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Re: America & North Korea

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You really think so.... 4 US administrations left NK with no other choice than to peruse ICBM's???

Again.... someone tell me why America is going to reasonably invade NK unprovoked?????
1. Pretty much if you are clear that you mean the NK dictators and not NK the country. They made the 1994 agreement and then the US hawks have been threatening invasion and contending that living up to our agreement or even restarting talks is impossible until NK does what? There's basically nothing they can do. History shows that. Iraq opened wide for inspectors and it didn't help them.

2. Because it's in our nature. We do it more than any country in the world. To prevent them from getting nukes. Irrational fear. Racism. To make money. To sell arms. To keep the war economy going. And no one can stop us.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:37 PM   #1340
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Re: America & North Korea

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Hit the US with impunity?

Negotiations worked. Sanctions have only been valuable as pressure for negotiations to start.

If we were half way smart we could redo 1994 and peacefully end the NK nuclear program. But we're not. The mix of war mongers who see every relationship as adversarial (eg you and China) and western interests who make a ****load of money off the military make this nearly impossible.

KJU wants to stay rich and in power and thus alive. Keep that in mind and negotiations aren't so hard.
I'm missing something here.... If the North was interested in a peaceful accommodation with America didn't they just have 8 years of a sympathetic ear to propose it to? Seriously?

But what did they do.... they not only continued to develop a nuclear program they don't need for defense purposes... but they pressed on with an ICBM program aimed only at us. WHY????

BECAUSE THE INSTANT THEY CAN CREDIBLY THREATEN MASS CASUALTIES IN AMERICA THEY CAN DO AS THEY PLEASE TO "REUNIFY" THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND ABSORB THEIR RESOURCES.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:42 PM   #1341
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Re: America & North Korea

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1. Pretty much if you are clear that you mean the NK dictators and not NK the country. They made the 1994 agreement and then the US hawks have been threatening invasion and contending that living up to our agreement or even restarting talks is impossible until NK does what? There's basically nothing they can do. History shows that. Iraq opened wide for inspectors and it didn't help them.

2. Because it's in our nature. We do it more than any country in the world. To prevent them from getting nukes. Irrational fear. Racism. To make money. To sell arms. To keep the war economy going. And no one can stop us.
Racism??? Honestly??? The yellow menace??? You don't think the US would have their shorts in a knot if Iran was a few months away from threatening mass casualties in America ?

It's in our nature??? Jesus..........
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:44 PM   #1342
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Re: America & North Korea

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You don't think South Korea and Japan have "skin in the game"?
Their asses are in the game which is comfortably (for them) guaranteed by the US tax payer
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:45 PM   #1343
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Re: America & North Korea

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More likely you don't have a reasonable course of action that gets America out of Kim's bulls-eye (you feel better now?)
Nope but I think I could probably come up with something better than "Kim Jong Un of North Korea, who is obviously a madman who doesn't mind starving or killing his people, will be tested like never before!"
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:50 PM   #1344
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Re: America & North Korea

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Racism??? Honestly??? The yellow menace??? You don't think the US would have their shorts in a knot if Iran was a few months away from threatening mass casualties in America ?

It's in our nature??? Jesus..........
Racism against Iran too.

I doubt you're able to see this, but casually throwing around scenarios where tens of millions of Koreans, north or south, might die, is happening in a way that would be unthinkable if they were European, Canadian, Australian, American etc.

Massive war happening in non-white lands isn't mandatory or anything, but it's thinkable.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:53 PM   #1345
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Re: America & North Korea

Np,

You would make more sense policy wise if you just came out and said that we have no choice other than a massive first strike, perhaps nuclear, on NK.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:56 PM   #1346
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Re: America & North Korea

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Nope but I think I could probably come up with something better than "Kim Jong Un of North Korea, who is obviously a madman who doesn't mind starving or killing his people, will be tested like never before!"
You realize I want China to read him the riot act.... not us. And I'm not averse to giving the North a substantive aid package in exchange for dismantling his ICBM program. He can keep a dozen or so nukes if it makes him feel any better.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:59 PM   #1347
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Re: America & North Korea

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Np,

You would make more sense policy wise if you just came out and said that we have no choice other than a massive first strike, perhaps nuclear, on NK.
I agree that WE have no other good option or at least an option I like. But China DOES have an option to intercede. They just need a fire lit under their ass.
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Old 01-01-2018, 02:59 PM   #1348
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Re: America & North Korea

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You realize I want China to read him the riot act.... not us. And I'm not averse to giving the North a substantive aid package in exchange for dismantling his ICBM program. He can keep a dozen or so nukes if it makes him feel any better.
Damn. If Obama's position were within a light year of that what would you have thought of him?
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Old 01-01-2018, 03:04 PM   #1349
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Re: America & North Korea

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I agree that WE have no other good option or at least an option I like. But China DOES have an option to intercede. They just need a fire lit under their ass.
China might be able to get away with killing KJU and making sure they have more influence over the replacement dictator. Pretty risky though.
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Old 01-01-2018, 03:13 PM   #1350
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Re: America & North Korea

The notion that China can fix things is a fantasy. The reality: http://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki...d-be-a-mistake

Quote:
At some point, however, when sanctions begin to have a meaningful effect on North Korea, China’s leaders will likely conclude they cannot apply additional pressure without triggering a North Korean military provocation.

Some of the Chinese experts advising President Xi think that time has already come. They are the ones behind the Global Times editorial that threatened Chinese military intervention if the United States fires the first shot. These Chinese hard-liners are now trying to bring Russia on board with discussions about a joint statement warning the Trump administration against a preemptive attack on North Korea. They do not believe the United States is willing to risk a war with China and Russia to attempt a preemptive strike against North Korea that has a low probability of success.
Notice how similar this reasoning is to the USA hawks who say China would never risk war with the US. Wishing something to be impossible doesn't make it so.
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