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Old 11-09-2017, 11:27 PM   #201
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

We need to discount scenarios where Moore voluntarily quits. Dude literally believes he's on a mission from God
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:28 PM   #202
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

So let's say somehow either the GOP withdraws Moore (or Moore withdraws himself) and the GOP gets a write-in campaign going for Luther Strange.

Wouldn't it be a great time to play Russian troll and try to convince reliable R voters that "the Deep State and their lies" ****ed over Roy Moore and that they should vote for him over Strange?
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:33 PM   #203
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Rubin's a big conservative

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Old 11-09-2017, 11:34 PM   #204
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Odds the GOP votes for Moore again if he’s booted off the ticket and they have another primary? 95%?
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:40 PM   #205
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

those...are not the odds
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:40 PM   #206
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

For the pessimists itt who think Moore will still win, how do you think this is more survivable than the Akin race? The Akin race was on a presidential ticket and he still lost by 16. This is a random special election in December where Roy Moore has to convince people to go vote for only him with nobody else on the ticket
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:46 PM   #207
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 425kid View Post
For the pessimists itt who think Moore will still win, how do you think this is more survivable than the Akin race? The Akin race was on a presidential ticket and he still lost by 16. This is a random special election in December where Roy Moore has to convince people to go vote for only him with nobody else on the ticket
Alabama.
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:46 PM   #208
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 425kid View Post
For the pessimists itt who think Moore will still win, how do you think this is more survivable than the Akin race? The Akin race was on a presidential ticket and he still lost by 16. This is a random special election in December where Roy Moore has to convince people to go vote for only him with nobody else on the ticket
Akin unperformed RMoney by 15 points, got 39% of the vote. Trump got 62% in Alabama. I agree, I think he loses if he fights it out.

Which is why I think he's going to withdraw or have his nomination withdrawn. Then he'll win and there will be another special election.
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:51 PM   #209
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Dont think that works either. How do you convince people to go vote for a Pedo just to get a revote? Seems like a great way to convince Republicans to stay home while the Ds get close to presidential turnout levels
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:53 PM   #210
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

you tell them to vote for the pedo and there will be a revote? I mean it's pretty straightforward.
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:55 PM   #211
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

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Originally Posted by SenorKeeed View Post
you tell them to vote for the pedo and there will be a revote? I mean it's pretty straightforward.
you understand how dumb the average trump voter is? you understand how dumb the average old person is? you understand how dumb the average person in Alabama is?

now put all those together. they're not all gonna get on the same page if that happens.
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:56 PM   #212
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Nothing turns out your marginal voters like "Vote for a guy you're disgusted by so you can vote for someone else in 6 months".

Like that might work if Trump was on the ballot too and campaigning in Alabama. But who the **** is campaigning and going door to door convincing people of this strategy
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:56 PM   #213
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Though I'm not an expert in AL election law, it would be super unusual for a party to be able to void the result of a primary. The whole point of a primary is to keep the party from picking a nominee.
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:59 PM   #214
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

you dudes are wishcasting real hard here. It isn't a hard concept, the six o'clock news will explain it in like 30 seconds. Literally everyone who can operate a television can understand what is happening. Dead guys win elections sometimes. This would be no different.
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Old 11-10-2017, 12:07 AM   #215
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

You guys are adorable thinking that anybody in AL GAF about Moore deciding that (32/2)+7=14. He's going to win, he's going to serve, and that's that.
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Old 11-10-2017, 12:09 AM   #216
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

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Originally Posted by zikzak View Post
You guys are adorable thinking that anybody in AL GAF about Moore deciding that (32/2)+7=14. He's going to win, he's going to serve, and that's that.
what odds will you give me he doesn't serve a day in the senate?
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Old 11-10-2017, 12:15 AM   #217
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed View Post
Akin unperformed RMoney by 15 points, got 39% of the vote. Trump got 62% in Alabama. I agree, I think he loses if he fights it out.
Using Akin's performance as a guide, 39/54 * 62 implies 45% for Moore. And I think Moore's supporters could be more sticky compared to Akin's because:
(a) Lolabama
(b) Moore was already doing poorly, meaning there could be fewer people remaining who might switch sides
(c) There's no audio like with the "legitimate rape" comment, which was played a million times

I'm optimistic, too, and said as much earlier today. Conditions favor democrats right now in a way they didn't in 2012, so that has to be part of the calculus too. But I still think Moore is the favorite.

Last edited by JoltinJake; 11-10-2017 at 12:23 AM.
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Old 11-10-2017, 12:20 AM   #218
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed View Post
what odds will you give me he doesn't serve a day in the senate?
My honest answer is that it's ~even money.

No, I'm not betting on it.
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Old 11-10-2017, 12:22 AM   #219
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

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Originally Posted by zikzak View Post
My honest answer is that it's ~even money.

No, I'm not betting on it.
Predictit had Roy Moore to win at 89 cents this morning, down to 58 cents now... I think that's about right on both counts. He's still better than a coin flip, but Jones has a chance now.
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Old 11-10-2017, 12:27 AM   #220
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Alabama is such a garbage state full of garbage people.
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Old 11-10-2017, 12:29 AM   #221
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Is there a third party candidate running for this seat? That could matter, too. Might give enough deplorables an out.
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Old 11-10-2017, 12:31 AM   #222
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

another mega conservative

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Old 11-10-2017, 12:37 AM   #223
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoltinJake View Post
Is there a third party candidate running for this seat? That could matter, too. Might give enough deplorables an out.
Sitting senator Luther Strange (got 45% of the vote vs Moore in the primary) is apparently considering running a write in campaign.
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Old 11-10-2017, 12:53 AM   #224
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

that'd be cool
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Old 11-10-2017, 12:54 AM   #225
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re: Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington)

Is anyone else actually printed on the ballot, though? Like a libertarian?
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