Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington) - Page 13 - Politics and Economics

Yeah I've lost my faith in polls. I never actually believed in them that much, but they've been wildly inaccurate in the age of trumpism. Not just in favor of them, they were way off in VA as well. Aren't most still done by landlines? I've never been called for a poll ever, so they probably don't even talk to the 18-35 year old voters.

They haven't been wildly inaccurate, and they weren't way off in VA. A five point polling miss is fairly normal. The average politard talks about polls the way the average live player talks about pocket kings. On the very same day as the slightly large polling error in VA, we had Phil Murphy hit almost exactly his polling average, but no one remembers that.

11-10-2017 , 05:08 PM

#302

BMOL33

adept

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 722

Quote:

Originally Posted by eyebooger

Why do you think this?

Moore and the party establishment don't exactly see eye-to-eye. Pretty much any Republican with any name recognition endorsed Luther Strange in the primary. Moore owes the Republican Party NOTHING.

Probably will receive threats, be bribed etc. Politics is more dirty than even the most knowledgeable people who don't work directly in it realize

11-10-2017 , 05:12 PM

#303

Huehuecoyotl

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Bold move by Reason to get to the heart of Roy Moore's problem, onerous sex offender laws

Quote:

Going 'a Little Too Far' With a 14-Year-Old Girl Could Have Ruined Roy Moore's Life
Thanks to Alabama's onerous sex offender law, the Republican Senate candidate would still be paying for his mistake four decades later.

Quote:

Those rules give you a sense of what Roy Moore's life would have been like if the actions alleged by Corfman had led to his arrest and conviction. A record as a sex offender probably would have prevented him from attending West Point, completing law school, becoming a prosecutor, getting elected to the Alabama Supreme Court, and winning the Republican Senate primary. The burdens of registration would continue to constrain and complicate his day-to-day decisions, impinge on his livelihood, and expose him to ostracism and harassment—all because he "went a little too far" with a girl who was a little too young.

http://reason.com/blog/2017/11/10/ho...-with-a-girl-a

Like I get that we need to have some way not to completely destroy people's lives forever for a crime and that rehabilitation and being treated as a normal person is an admirable goal, but you probably shouldn't phrase it as psychopathic candidate probably wouldn't be where he his now if he would have been convicted of his crimes at the time he did them, which were very minor and of little importance.

Last edited by Huehuecoyotl; 11-10-2017 at 05:17 PM.

11-10-2017 , 05:20 PM

#304

pvn

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Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

I think there's a subset of people that won't say on the phone, "Yeah, I'm voting for the child molester," but when they get in the voting booth, they'll freeze up and rationalize it to avoid voting for a liberal.

Isn't this one of those old wives tales that has been speculated about for generations, yet nobody has ever found any evidence to support?

11-10-2017 , 05:21 PM

#305

JoltinJake

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 5,236

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

I also think it's quite possible that Moore drops in the polls, but outperforms them significantly. I think there's a subset of people that won't say on the phone, "Yeah, I'm voting for the child molester," but when they get in the voting booth, they'll freeze up and rationalize it to avoid voting for a liberal.

Maybe, but most will rationalize it before they get to the booth. It will slowly start showing up in the polls, just like in the aftermath of the Access Hollywood tape.

11-10-2017 , 05:21 PM

#306

pvn

Guest

Posts: n/a

This whole "ruined roy moore's life" meme needs to be called out. This **** is absolutely not going to ruin his life. He's 74. Not getting to play senator for a few years is not ruining his life. That's pretty much the extent of the effect on him.

11-10-2017 , 05:26 PM

#307

JoltinJake

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 5,236

Quote:

Originally Posted by pvn

Isn't this one of those old wives tales that has been speculated about for generations, yet nobody has ever found any evidence to support?

Depends on the timing, I think, but generally I believe you are correct.

There does seem to be a short term effect in situations like this, though. People get confused and haven't had time to rationalize, and polling response rates go way down. So if the election were like, tomorrow, then the results could be wacky. But there's plenty of time left here.

11-10-2017 , 05:47 PM

#308

cuserounder

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I recall reading an article at some point in the 2016 cycle about how the polling question "Who do you think your neighbor is voting for?" was more accurate than asking who the respondent was voting for, because people didn't want to admit that they supported Trump.

11-10-2017 , 05:56 PM

#309

lycosid

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 2,806

Quote:

Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl

Bold move by Reason to get to the heart of Roy Moore's problem, onerous sex offender laws

http://reason.com/blog/2017/11/10/ho...-with-a-girl-a

Like I get that we need to have some way not to completely destroy people's lives forever for a crime and that rehabilitation and being treated as a normal person is an admirable goal, but you probably shouldn't phrase it as psychopathic candidate probably wouldn't be where he his now if he would have been convicted of his crimes at the time he did them, which were very minor and of little importance.

This is the Super Bowl for weird libertarians who are single issue age of consent voters.

11-10-2017 , 05:57 PM

#310

Namath12

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Roy does not "generally" remember dating girls that young per his Hannity interview.

11-10-2017 , 06:05 PM

#311

gobbo

Trust the fat man.

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I almost never repost memes but this is too perfect.

11-10-2017 , 06:14 PM

#312

goofyballer

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WaPo: A list of things Roy Moore has said about sex and morality

mainly wanted to post this one, which is incredible and hits so many right-wing grievance points in so few words:

Quote:

3. “I want to get freed from political correctness and social experimentation, like transgester troops in our bathroom and inclusiveness.” — Moore in that September GOP primary debate

It's just...perfect.

11-10-2017 , 06:22 PM

#313

DVaut1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbo

I almost never repost memes but this is too perfect.

Once the liberals with their lax standards and 'anything goes' morals let the Sharia Law Muslims in, wife beater terrorists with military training will arm themselves and shoot up Christians as they gather to pray, as is the custom of those barbarians.

I mean, read the news. Have you heard about what goes in SAUDI ARABIA? Their culture simply doesn't work with ours.

11-10-2017 , 06:22 PM

#314

synth_floyd

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So what's the polling on this election? Does the Dem have a chance or will Moore be shoe in just because he has an R next to his name?

11-10-2017 , 06:27 PM

#315

fatkid

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That Hannity interview is funny. How do you **** that up? It’s like an adult losing a tic tac toe game to a three year old.

Haha he doesn’t dispute dating 16 year olds and he doesn’t remember if he ever dated teens without the permission of the mother. Alabama bro.

11-10-2017 , 06:57 PM

#316

BMOL33

adept

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 722

Quote:

Originally Posted by synth_floyd

So what's the polling on this election? Does the Dem have a chance or will Moore be shoe in just because he has an R next to his name?

It's probably not easy to call but even the most optimistic Dems seem to think the Alabama conservative base will stand by Moore. The best chance by far is if the GOP voters stay home. I still say he's dropping out and what occurs if he does is still foggy as I continue to see conflicting info ranging anywhere from Jones simply runs uncontested and the GOP can try to do a write in push for Strange or Gov Ivey doesn't allow the seat to be filled

11-10-2017 , 07:04 PM

#317

Former DJ

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,394

Quote:

Originally Posted by synth_floyd

So what's the polling on this election? Does the Dem have a chance or will Moore be shoe in just because he has an R next to his name?

synth_floyd:

According to this poll:

http://www.al.com/news/huntsville/in...cart_big-photo

the race is now tied.

11-10-2017 , 07:10 PM

#318

PartyGirlUK

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When does Strange stand down and when does the winner of the race take their seat?

11-10-2017 , 07:10 PM

#319

StimAbuser

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NRSC exits fundraising agreement with Roy Moore's campaign

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nrsc-se...ith-roy-moore/

11-10-2017 , 07:18 PM

#320

Huehuecoyotl

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11-10-2017 , 07:29 PM

#321

fatkid

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Your late to the party bro.

So I guess all Roy has left is insane trump voters and Hannity.

11-10-2017 , 07:31 PM

#322

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

So people in Alabama hate Democrats more than pedophiles.

Wow. They're not the only state who'd vote in a pedo before a Democrat either.

Probably just best to never visit the deep south.

11-10-2017 , 07:31 PM

#323

goofyballer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl

There's no limit to the disgusting level Dems will go to spread these fake news lies. Guy's wearing a Packers shirt, clearly came from Wisconsin when it was still a BLUE STATE, obvious plant.