Alabama Special Election (Roy Moore diddles, GOP thumbs up, Mr. Jones goes to Washington) - Page 37 - Politics and Economics

verneer:

Since I'm an unapologetic "librul" - which is something of an endangered species here in Alabama - I don't really know that many center-right or right-leaning folks; so I can't deliver a good reading on where those folks are leaning. (My suspicion, which the polling data seems to bear out, is that very right-leaning folks, especially right-leaning men and right-leaning Christian evangelicals, are going to vote for Moore, but that was expected since those folks would [very likely] vote for Moore even if all this "stuff" had not come out.) I'm semi-retired now, so I don't have as much daily contact with friends and colleagues as I used to, so I'm taking my cues mostly from what I'm reading and what I'm seeing on television.

There is one demographic that may produce a "surprise" on election day: Women. These allegations against Moore, irrespective of whether or not they are true, resonate with women - more so than with men. I'm sure there are women who have never had the experience of being subjected to an unwanted sexual advance, but there are a lot of women who have. There are also women who have memories of unpleasant experiences involving men like Roy Moore - or know a close female friend who has confided such an experience to them. It is hard to quantify how many of these women since they don't generally talk about such encounters publicly, but there's no doubt that these women exist - probably in substantial numbers.

I don't know what the percentage of these women is - and how many of them will vote - but that percentage is greater than zero. In a statistically "close" race, a heavy turnout of women could swing the result in Doug Jones favor. That is exactly what happened in the recent elections in Virginia. Democratic candidates unseated Republicans en mass due largely to a huge turnout of women voters. That Virginia vote was widely interpreted as women voting "anti-Trump," but I can see the same kind of "anti Roy Moore" thing happening here in Alabama.

Not sure. I'm a liberal living in Alabama and my best guess is that the right is going to vote for Moore no matter what, but that women could be a wildcard, for obvious reasons.

Last edited by Minor Edit; 11-18-2017 at 01:59 PM. Reason: Minor edit.

11-18-2017 , 01:57 PM

#903

Trolly McTrollson

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MicroPimpin

Might have missed something, but I don't see how the signature will even matter. He's obviously guilty and people aren't going to change their vote because of it. Good chance the signature is forged anyway.

This is the classic trap liberals get into trying to argue in good faith with disingenuous people. 90+% of Moore voters know full well he's a creep who chases after teenage girls. If some magic CSI evidence 100% proves the signature was him, they'll immediately pivot to claiming that it's totally normal and healthy for 30-somethings to hang around shopping malls trying to pick up teens.

Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: 100% perspiration
Posts: 1

11-18-2017 , 01:58 PM

#904

MicroPimpin

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 590

+rep,

ok, a small chance the signature is forged. Does that make you feel better. lol

11-18-2017 , 01:59 PM

#905

Minor Edit

stranger

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 5

Quote:

Originally Posted by Former DJ

Alabama Governor Declares She Will Vote for Roy Moore

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...ushpmg00000009

J. Pierpont Morgan, the famous 20th century banker, declared that a man has two reasons for every decision he makes: The reason he says and the real reason. Such is the case with Governor Kay Ivey. When this story first broke, Governor Ivey claimed that she was "very disturbed" and "very troubled" by the accusations. In the past 10-12 days she has traversed from being very disturbed to declaring that she intends to vote for Roy Moore. The real reason Governor Ivey has decided she will vote for pedo Roy is not because she wants a Republican senator. The real reason is because she wants a Republican Governor - namely herself!

Kay Ivey has already declared that she will run for a full term as Alabama Governor in 2018. Ivey will face a field of three (or possibly more) challengers in the Republican primary. (One of those challengers is Tommy Battle, the mayor of Huntsville, Alabama. There are also [at least] one or two other challengers who have indicated that they intend to oppose Governor Ivey in the Republican primary.) Governor Ivey has to make sure she survives the primary or finishes in the top two so that she's assured of making it to a runoff. Since Christian evangelicals, (aka Roy Moore supporters), make up approximately 49 percent of Republican voters in Alabama; Governor Ivey knows it would be political suicide for her to declare that she is disgusted with Roy Moore. So instead of saying that she's voting for Roy because he's a Republican, what she's really saying is that she's voting for Roy because she wants Roy's voters to vote for her. A true profile in courage.

AL Governor Kay Ivey sucks, she's supporting Moore so she doesn't get primaried. Hoo boy. Why do I live here again?

Last edited by Minor Edit; 11-18-2017 at 02:00 PM. Reason: Minor edit.

11-18-2017 , 02:00 PM

#906

Minor Edit

stranger

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 5

Quote:

Originally Posted by Former DJ

Minirra:

Alabama voter (and long time North Alabama resident) here ...

I'm not so sure pedo Roy is a lock. This may be more "wishful thinking" than an outright prediction, but Democratic challenger Doug Jones may have a better chance than all these polls are indicating. The last time Roy Moore ran statewide for elective office was 2012. In that election he was running to reclaim his Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court position - an office he had been booted out of after refusing to obey a United States Supreme Court order to remove a Ten Commandments stone monument he had erected. Moore "won" that election, but just barely. He won against a Democratic opponent by a margin of 51 to 49 percent. (And that was before all these creepy allegations became public knowledge.)

I watched a video somebody posted [on here?] of Moore's wife and one of his campaign aides arguing with a gaggle of reporters who were attempting to ask questions. Moore's wife (and the spokesman) were frantic as to why reporters weren't talking about "the issues" instead of "personal crap!" that nobody cares about? (I'm paraphrasing a bit, but it was obvious that top Moore campaign aides - especially his wife - do not want the media asking questions about Roy Moore, teenage girls, and [alleged] "stuff" that happened nearly 40 years ago.)

One gets the sense, from watching this spectacle, that the stories (and the continuing coverage) are having an effect - probably not a good effect - on the Moore campaign. I'll be voting at a church precinct on December 12. I'll probably vote in mid-afternoon. It's going to be interesting gauging the turnout. I have a feeling there's going to be heavy voter turnout statewide. The only way I can see turnout not being heavy is if a substantial number of Republicans decide to stay home and not vote. If turnout is depressed, I would think that has to be good for Doug Jones.

Democrats are certainly not a majority in this state, they're outnumbered by something like 2-1, but I get the feeling that Democrats are highly motivated to get out and vote. Plus, Doug Jones is running a smart campaign. I'm seeing a lot more of his ads on TV than I am Moore's, another indication that Roy Moore is having trouble raising money.

Adding all this up, I think Doug Jones might just pull this out. Whatever happens, election night will be interesting ...

A biographical detail you might not know about me is that I live in Alabama. We all know Roy Moore's history and, speaking as an Alabamian, I'm getting the sense that all the bad press piling up around Roy Moore is both helping Doug Jones and hurting Roy Moore. Should be a hoot!

Last edited by Minor Edit; 11-18-2017 at 02:18 PM. Reason: Minor edit.

11-18-2017 , 03:24 PM

#907

+rep_lol

banned

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 14,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by MicroPimpin

+rep,

ok, a small chance the signature is forged. Does that make you feel better. lol

I dont feel any type of way but the sooner you admit that the chance of that signature being forged is like next to 0 (the 8th woman to come forward), the sooner you can stop looking like a complete idiot and defender of pedophiles

11-18-2017 , 03:57 PM

#908

MicroPimpin

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 590

good, I'm glad we have that straightened out

11-18-2017 , 04:24 PM

#909

pvn

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minor Edit

Not sure. I'm a liberal living in Alabama and my best guess is that the right is going to vote for Moore no matter what, but that women could be a wildcard, for obvious reasons.

Is this a new Alan Lawhon gimmick replying to an old Alan Lawhon gimmick?

11-18-2017 , 05:05 PM

#910

polarized_imo

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 8

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: 100% perspiration
Posts: 1

meh

11-18-2017 , 05:26 PM

#911

Vecernicek

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,781

Quote:

Originally Posted by pvn

Is this a new Alan Lawhon gimmick replying to an old Alan Lawhon gimmick?

Yeah, wait a minute. This is crazy. We used to make fun of Alan L. for his "Minor Edit" edits, didn't we? Was that really after 2012?

11-18-2017 , 05:56 PM

#912

simplicitus

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Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 10,840

"You're the Best. I'm sorry (not sorry) I raped you when you were 15. Roy Moore, Assistant DA."

That's the kind of thing that would generate some forgery concern. [Not that potential forgery is even relevant here.]

Last edited by simplicitus; 11-18-2017 at 06:12 PM.

11-18-2017 , 05:58 PM

#913

simplicitus

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Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 10,840

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minor Edit

You've made 3 posts in 5 years. There's probably a lot we don't know about you.

11-18-2017 , 06:18 PM

#914

fatkid

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Everyday I kneel on my prayer rug to beg for a giant sinkhole to open up under Alabama.

11-18-2017 , 06:39 PM

#915

rockfsh

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 2,530

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatkid

Everyday I kneel on my prayer rug to beg for a giant sinkhole to open up under Alabama.

Too late, Alabama is a giant sinkhole.

11-18-2017 , 07:00 PM

#916

Former DJ

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,394

Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball" Says Alabama Senate Race "Leans" Democratic

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...ans-democratic

Not sure of Mr. Sabato's record for calling races, but he is widely followed - especially on cable news channels. On another note, a women's group held an "anti Roy Moore" rally today in Birmingham. The Cook Political Report is predicting a Democratic "wave" election for 2018. Amy Walter specifically cited "the mess the GOP has gotten itself into thanks to Roy Moore" as one of the reasons why she believes Republicans are about to get swamped. If Republicans are successful in getting (so called) "tax reform" passed into law, that alone will virtually guarantee their defeat. Once a third of all middle class taxpayers see their SALT (State and Local Tax) deductions go away while folks like Donald Trump and the Koch brothers get a BILLION dollar tax break, it will be a no brainer ... The Democratic attack ads will write themselves.

Another telling indicator will be the number of GOP incumbents who announce they are stepping down rather than seeking reelection. (Even long serving Utah senator Orrin Hatch is rumored to be contemplating retirement.) I suppose for a vulnerable Republican who thinks the gig might be up, it's better to retire gracefully - and take that big generous lifetime pension - rather than risk the humiliation of being defeated like Eric Cantor. Amy Walter and her boss, Charlie Cook, might be right: A wave is coming.

11-18-2017 , 07:03 PM

#917

prana

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11-18-2017 , 07:06 PM

#918

will1530

self-banned

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 5,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by Former DJ

The Democratic attack ads will write themselves.

Assuming Democrats are capable of implementing a cohesive national campaign against all the horrible ideas Republicans have is wishful thinking. I fully expect 2/3's of Democrats running for congress to embrace the majority of the Republican tax plan while getting into the weeds of a few specific changes they would make.

11-18-2017 , 07:50 PM

#919

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

Quote:

Originally Posted by will1530

They will attack the cuts for blowing up the deficit

11-19-2017 , 01:30 AM

#920

rockfsh

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 2,530

50 Alabama pastors say Moore unfit to serve.

https://apnews.com/aa71fe0da5a3459aa...,-divide-women

11-19-2017 , 02:09 AM

#921

Former DJ

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,394

Quote:

Originally Posted by pvn

Is this a new Alan Lawhon gimmick replying to an old Alan Lawhon gimmick?

pvn:

No, it's not. I'm sure if you expended the time and effort to check this out with the mods, they would confirm that whoever "Minor edit" is, that person (and I) are not one and the same. There's no "gimmick" involved here, but thanks for the scurrilous intimation. (I suppose I should be flattered that someone might think I'm capable of Donald Segretti style dirty tricks ...)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Segretti

Last edited by Former DJ; 11-19-2017 at 02:13 AM. Reason: Minor edit: Added a link to Donald Segretti Wikipedia page.

11-19-2017 , 03:15 AM

#922

Former DJ

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,394

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

They will attack the cuts for blowing up the deficit

Fly:

What Democrats should do is obvious ... Assuming the tax cuts pass and the deficits explode, Republicans will throw up their hands declaring "Oh my God, the deficit is out of control! We have to deal with this crisis! The only 'solution' is to cut spending!" Having discovered this terrible problem, Republicans will go after Social Security and Medicare with a vengeance while simultaneously failing to utter a single word about the tax cuts that created the problem in the first place.

This is the GOP's back door plan for shrinking Government. They "create" an artificial budget crisis by intentionally manufacturing a massive revenue shortfall. In trying to kill Obamacare, Republicans discovered that proposing significant spending cuts is politically difficult - if not impossible. Paul Ryan and the GOP's wet dream has been to devise some way of cutting taxes, (and popular social programs like Medicare and Social Security), simultaneously. If you can't do both simultaneously, you do the former first and the latter will surely follow. It's ingenious. (Ayn Rand would be proud!)

It's a variation of the 2008 financial crisis. Put a collective gun to the American peoples' head, (i.e. create a "financial/debt crisis" and insist that something must be done as we can't let the banks fail), then force taxpayers to bail out Wall Street with something called TARP. In the present context, tax cuts for the rich and privileged will be financed by slashing social programs.

Democratic leaders need to get a lot more aggressive in explaining to American voters the GOP's game plan and what's likely to happen [to them] if Republicans get their tax cuts. In fact, they should be running ads pointing out the likely budgetary consequences of massive tax cutting. (It's no accident that Republicans are running ads gushing about how great things will be once they get their tax cuts.) Some of those Democratic ads should point out what has happened in [Republican] Kansas with Governor Brownback's tax cutting. Kansas is not exactly a shining example of trickle down prosperity and exploding economic growth.

11-19-2017 , 08:03 AM

#923

DudeImBetter

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Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 10,664

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

You can chip off paint and do tests on it to see if it has like, chemicals that didn't exist in the 1600s, but I would be enormously skeptical about any sort of IRS tests for accounting books. Like, they may have SAID they did that, in that they paid a guy to look at it and say "yeah these marks are from later I can tell from the indentation pattern", but that ain't true.

This isn't really relevant but in the event any of you serve on a jury like 90% of what Hollywood says about forensic science is a lie and you should be enormously skeptical of anything besides DNA. Judges aren't scientists and lawyers are good at cloaking bull**** to get it in.

The evidence I hate is dentists looking at a bite mark and conclusively determining it must have come from X person lol

11-19-2017 , 08:13 AM

#924

pvn

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Former DJ

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Segretti

It seems pretty weird to admit you're using a gimmick account while you simultaneously pretend to be offended at the suggestion that you would use a gimmick account.

11-19-2017 , 12:09 PM

#925

Former DJ

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,394

Quote:

Originally Posted by pvn

It seems pretty weird to admit you're using a gimmick account while you simultaneously pretend to be offended at the suggestion that you would use a gimmick account.

pvn:

I don't know what the hell your problem is. I am not [intentionally] using a "gimmick" account. (I'm not even sure what a gimmick account is ...)

When I registered my original 2+2 account approximately 10-12 years ago, I registered under my current moniker: Former DJ. I used "Former DJ" up until (2010 - 2013?) or whenever the 2+2 web site was hacked. (I don't recall whether the mods and/or Mason asked all of us to re-register and change our passwords in the aftermath of the hack, but I believe that was the case, so I re-registered and used my actual name - Alan C. Lawhon - as I didn't see any point in hiding behind an alias.) I don't give a fig whether people on here know my actual name or not - I'm not a Russian spy working for the KGB. I like using "Former DJ" as I was a radio station disc jockey back in the 1970's, so I chose that moniker when I originally registered on 2+2. At the time of the hack, I assumed the account attached to "Former DJ" was deleted by the System Administrator and "went away" once I re-registered under my actual name.

Once I re-registered under my actual name, I continued posting until I ran up well over 2,000 posts. Approximately 12-18 months ago, (not sure of the exact date), my "Alan C. Lawhon" account mysteriously disappeared. I don't know what happened, but one day I logged on to 2+2 to discover that username "Alan C. Lawhon" was gone and username "Former DJ" was back. To the best of my knowledge I didn't make the change - I don't know how it happened. One day I'm posting under my actual name, the next day I'm suddenly "Former DJ" again. How this change occurred I have no idea, but, to the best of my knowledge, it wasn't due to any action on my part - or any action that I'm aware of.

This doesn't seem like a big deal to me. I don't care whether I post under my actual name or Former DJ, so I decided not to make a federal case out of this and raise a big stink with the mods. The only person on here who gets their panties in a twist seems to be you. Whatever the case, I'm not intentionally attempting to break site terms and conditions or violate any 2+2 rules - that I'm aware of. (I have received one infraction from a mod for something I did years ago, but that's the only "No No" that I'm aware of.) If I'm guilty of using a "gimmick" of some sort, (or violating site Terms & Conditions), I'm confident the mods and/or Mason will straighten me out. (To this point, I've had no communication or PM from a mod concerning my account, alleged use of a "gimmick" - or any other violation. The only person I'm aware of that is accusing me of using a "gimmick" appears to be you.)

From this point forward, I'll be grateful if you ignore my posts, avoid commenting on my posts, and restrain yourself from attempting to make a mountain out of a mole hill. I'll do likewise with respect to your posts.

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