Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul McSwizzle
yeah, certainly no disagreement there.
But the question here is whether there's any reason to think the political fallout from this event will be different. It's by no means assured but I think there are outs for it to be different this time because the videos/images from this shooting make it very clear that additional people being armed would not have done **** in this situation.
Now, that's obv true for any shooting. We know that. But we're not the constituency that matters here. What matters is if regular people think so. I'm not saying we're going to get dumbass John and Jane Gun on board, but I think regular people are going to be much less apt to listen to their bull**** arguments, in part because they (John and Jane) don't even believe them in this situation. Plus, I think this likely scares them too.
Another way to look at it - let's say there's another shooting tomorrow where 200 people are killed. Still nothing? What if a few days after that there's another 400? Point is - there's going to be a breaking point. People are going to just get fed up and rather than go the route of the DVaut joke where they start building towers underground and scanning handbags to go into the grocery store, they're going to say **** these guns. Sandy Hook was emotionally very impactful but I think people did buy the rhetoric that the way to solve it wasn't necessarily gun control. I don't see that rhetoric continuing to be effective.
ETA: I understand gun control is already popular, and the lack of legislation is bc of gerrymandering and the problem of staunchly polarized districts etc. That's thornier and part of why it's hard to be sure of anything. I guess my ultimate point is that I feel this will ramp up the pressure on gun control as a viable political movement.
Political power in the US isn't distributed equally to regular people. Due to gerrymandering, voter suppression, voter disinterest, geography, etc. a large share of political leverage is afforded to John and Jane Gun Nut. If everything else played out the same but in 2009 instead of 2017, you might be see bump stock bans or whatever. But 2017 America, power is in the hands of hardcore right-wing extremists. To imagine gun control passing is to imagine Paul Ryan / Mitch McConnell et allow for it. There are a lot of reasons they and their party are immunized to an extent from popular political pressure so it's simply not enough to say popular political pressure will win the day.
I agree, FWIW, that people are scared, but John and Jane Gun Nutter and the GOP -- when scared -- do not behave predictably or logically. Do not assume they will settle on gun control. 2017 America is partly a story of a nation under some deep stresses (many self inflicted, but that's a story for another day). And those deep stresses are not necessarily manifesting as logical responses. Almost the opposite. I agree mass shootings are weighing psychologically on right-wing America too, but I think it's time to take our Facebook news feeds and chain emails seriously. These people are taking their anxieties and lashing out at George ****ing Soros for buying MGM Resorts stock. Take this response seriously, stop dismissing it. Part of the anxiety NORMAL people should feel about 2017 America isn't just that maniac right-wingers see a guy shoot 500 people and muse about a rich Jew being behind it all, but that normal people assume that 'regular people' are actually secretly pining for gun control now.
Anyway, this is Minority Rule America yo, get used to it. Popular support isn't enough for now. The people in power are largely immune to generic, popular support and instead are beholden to smaller number of hardcore partisans and activists who are operating with a different set of incentives.
Last edited by DVaut1; 10-08-2017 at 07:29 AM.