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Old 01-12-2018, 02:29 PM   #51
Victor
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Originally Posted by bigt2k4 View Post
Turnout is what won Trump the election, it is also what won Doug Jones the election. I see turnout amongst Dems to be very high, as comparisons are failing to see that most of the people who disapprove Trump really hate Trump. A lot of the approve of Trump that really love him will not be bothered to vote in a senate election and some of them were first time voters.
There is also a lot more relative funding for the Democrats to get that turnout they need.

Could be the optimist in me, but when Democrats come close in Republican >+20 environments in Georgia before Trump's approval ratings plunged I see something that models are neglecting.
the problem is that you arent including gerrymandering, voter suppression, selective purging of voters and other kinds of outright fraud in your analysis.
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Old 01-12-2018, 06:29 PM   #52
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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without looking at any polling or anything,

Manchin wins
Heidtkamp loses
one of Tester or Donnelly loses.
Smith (or whoever in MN) wins.

Heller loses
Cruz loses
McSally wins
Blackburn wins

so that's 51R-47+2. will revisit this sometime in September.
While there are universes in which Cruz loses, there are no universes in which Cruz loses and Heidtkamp/Tester/ and/or Donnelly lose. It would have to be a blue tsunami for Cruz to lose (possible, but not particularly likely), and these races are correlated with each other.

Edit: Unless Cruz gets caught with a dead girl or live boy I guess.
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Old 01-13-2018, 04:24 PM   #53
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Chelsea Manning files to run for U.S. Senate in Maryland



I predict Chelsea Manning will not become senator of Maryland.
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Old 01-13-2018, 05:14 PM   #54
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Any model that gives the PA/OH/WI seats a 96% of being Democrat is clearly flawed.
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Old 01-14-2018, 03:40 AM   #55
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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While there are universes in which Cruz loses, there are no universes in which Cruz loses and Heidtkamp/Tester/ and/or Donnelly lose. It would have to be a blue tsunami for Cruz to lose (possible, but not particularly likely), and these races are correlated with each other.

Edit: Unless Cruz gets caught with a dead girl or live boy I guess.
In theory, I could see WV being an outlier due to coal-related issues, but if they're angry, it's likely to be with Trump for not doing anything effective for them, which would mean a bigger blue wave there than nationally.

To play Devil's advocate, here are the Cook PVI's by state:

Montana (Tester) R+11
North Dakota (Heitkamp) R+17
Indiana (Donnelly) R+9
West Virginia (Manchin) R+19

Texas is R+8 and Cruz has bad favorable/unfavorables. Those four all won their seats in an Obama election, so it's possible, but still massively unlikely, that Dems lose one or more of those seats and win Texas. Incumbency matters.
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Old 01-14-2018, 09:25 AM   #56
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

For the vast majority of its history West Virginia was a very blue state. I envision heitkamp, manchin, and tester all winning because they are well cast for their respective states. Donnelly I am less sure about but Indiana politicians are the definition of boring and Donnelly is the most boring politician ever
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Old 01-17-2018, 09:53 PM   #57
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

I don't think Manning has a chance, and not because she's trans-gendered. Voters don't really like even a whiff of treason.
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Old 01-17-2018, 10:03 PM   #58
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

I think McCaskill is the most at risk D senator up in 2018.
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Old 01-17-2018, 10:08 PM   #59
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

McCaskill, Donnelly then it's really close, maybe even Nelson. That's based on model plus senator approval ratings plus likely quality of challengers.

PA & OH are really safe. Maybe not 96% safe but definitely over 90%. WI a little riskier because Baldwin isn't particularly popular but she'd need a lot to go wrong to lose. An unexpectedly strong primary challenger plus a tightening of the generic could make it interesting but really she should win.
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Old 01-18-2018, 02:06 AM   #60
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

What odds can I get on the D's gaining 60 house seats but not gaining control of the senate?
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Old 01-18-2018, 02:54 AM   #61
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Can someone make a new thread for the midterms? Feel like the OP kinda despoils this one. I may try in a week if no one else does.
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Old 01-18-2018, 02:59 PM   #62
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

w00t the despoiler
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Old 01-18-2018, 03:01 PM   #63
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

w00t thinks presidential election electoral votes in wisconson are counted on the basis of all-or-nothing sub-electoral votes by county so it does seem unfair for him to start the midterm election thread but you gotta admit it's funny
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Old 01-20-2018, 10:04 AM   #64
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Why does it not seem there is any pressure on Menendez not to run in 2020. Franken had to resign due to sexual harassment allegations but pay for play politics is not a big deal? Seems like this could jeopardize a safe seat and should damage dems credibility as they push against corruption in the Trump campaign.
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Old 01-23-2018, 03:21 PM   #65
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

prediction:

dems take the house and crack don jr like an egg on national tv
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Old 01-23-2018, 03:59 PM   #66
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Originally Posted by stringbettor View Post
Why does it not seem there is any pressure on Menendez not to run in 2020. Franken had to resign due to sexual harassment allegations but pay for play politics is not a big deal? Seems like this could jeopardize a safe seat and should damage dems credibility as they push against corruption in the Trump campaign.
Well not that it settles the issue, but he was tried and 10/12 jurors found him not guilty. I would support a primary challenger, but more for him being an Israel hawk than pay-to-play.
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Old 01-23-2018, 05:28 PM   #67
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Menendez was found not guilty because the Supreme Court decided that bribery is legal as long you don't say, "yes I would like to do a crime with you, please give me $100,000 and I will take official acts to help you in my official role as a Senator of the United States of America."

Menendez is a scumbag and Ds should absolutely primary him.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/201...de_the_in.html

Menendez's "friend" is a scumbag who defrauded $105 million from Medicare. Menendez tried to help him with his Medicare fraud case and helped him with many other things over the years. Menendez received lavish gifts from the doctor and $100ks of campaign contributions. Menendez's defense is that the two were great friends and helped each other because of their friendship rather than him being bribed. Functionally, it is impossible to tell the difference between the two, so the pro-bribery SC precedent lets him off the hook legally. But he absolutely should not be a US Senator.
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Old 01-23-2018, 07:29 PM   #68
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

he wasn't found not guilty, it was a hung jury and the prosecutor has publicly announced he plans to try again


idk if he's a scumbag, the only thing i read about menendez is one of the jurors got excused to go on a vacation and she told reporters the prosecution was bull**** and menendez was obv innocent. i lol'd cause this woman thought her vacation was more important than vindicating a guy standing trial who she thought was innocent and the judge ok'd it because vacations are evidently the most important thing
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Old 01-23-2018, 08:40 PM   #69
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Originally Posted by simplicitus View Post
Can someone make a new thread for the midterms? Feel like the OP kinda despoils this one. I may try in a week if no one else does.
Meh. Who reads OPs, really?
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Old 02-07-2018, 11:47 PM   #70
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Old 02-13-2018, 09:53 AM   #71
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Trump begging Corky to stay in the Senate would be...something

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Old 02-14-2018, 12:50 AM   #72
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Trump begging Corky to stay in the Senate would be...something

Corker going back on his word? You don't say.
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Old 02-14-2018, 05:13 AM   #73
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

well in my district in ks3 Im confident dems can take the seat this time around so thats +1 pick up in the house for dems. I will be campaigning.
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Old 02-20-2018, 02:22 PM   #74
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

How is the special election for pa-18 going to work with the redistricting. It seems they are going to go ahead with the special election with the old map. Does that mean when they run the elections in November they will have to run again, or will the winner become the rep for the newly drawn district?
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Old 03-07-2018, 12:38 AM   #75
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

dem won bama
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