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Old 01-12-2018, 02:29 PM   #51
Victor
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigt2k4 View Post
Turnout is what won Trump the election, it is also what won Doug Jones the election. I see turnout amongst Dems to be very high, as comparisons are failing to see that most of the people who disapprove Trump really hate Trump. A lot of the approve of Trump that really love him will not be bothered to vote in a senate election and some of them were first time voters.
There is also a lot more relative funding for the Democrats to get that turnout they need.

Could be the optimist in me, but when Democrats come close in Republican >+20 environments in Georgia before Trump's approval ratings plunged I see something that models are neglecting.
the problem is that you arent including gerrymandering, voter suppression, selective purging of voters and other kinds of outright fraud in your analysis.
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Old 01-12-2018, 06:29 PM   #52
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Originally Posted by Klingbard View Post
without looking at any polling or anything,

Manchin wins
Heidtkamp loses
one of Tester or Donnelly loses.
Smith (or whoever in MN) wins.

Heller loses
Cruz loses
McSally wins
Blackburn wins

so that's 51R-47+2. will revisit this sometime in September.
While there are universes in which Cruz loses, there are no universes in which Cruz loses and Heidtkamp/Tester/ and/or Donnelly lose. It would have to be a blue tsunami for Cruz to lose (possible, but not particularly likely), and these races are correlated with each other.

Edit: Unless Cruz gets caught with a dead girl or live boy I guess.
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Old 01-13-2018, 04:24 PM   #53
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Chelsea Manning files to run for U.S. Senate in Maryland



I predict Chelsea Manning will not become senator of Maryland.
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Old 01-13-2018, 05:14 PM   #54
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Any model that gives the PA/OH/WI seats a 96% of being Democrat is clearly flawed.
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Old 01-14-2018, 03:40 AM   #55
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Originally Posted by jman220 View Post
While there are universes in which Cruz loses, there are no universes in which Cruz loses and Heidtkamp/Tester/ and/or Donnelly lose. It would have to be a blue tsunami for Cruz to lose (possible, but not particularly likely), and these races are correlated with each other.

Edit: Unless Cruz gets caught with a dead girl or live boy I guess.
In theory, I could see WV being an outlier due to coal-related issues, but if they're angry, it's likely to be with Trump for not doing anything effective for them, which would mean a bigger blue wave there than nationally.

To play Devil's advocate, here are the Cook PVI's by state:

Montana (Tester) R+11
North Dakota (Heitkamp) R+17
Indiana (Donnelly) R+9
West Virginia (Manchin) R+19

Texas is R+8 and Cruz has bad favorable/unfavorables. Those four all won their seats in an Obama election, so it's possible, but still massively unlikely, that Dems lose one or more of those seats and win Texas. Incumbency matters.
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Old 01-14-2018, 09:25 AM   #56
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

For the vast majority of its history West Virginia was a very blue state. I envision heitkamp, manchin, and tester all winning because they are well cast for their respective states. Donnelly I am less sure about but Indiana politicians are the definition of boring and Donnelly is the most boring politician ever
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Old Yesterday, 09:53 PM   #57
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

I don't think Manning has a chance, and not because she's trans-gendered. Voters don't really like even a whiff of treason.
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Old Yesterday, 10:03 PM   #58
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

I think McCaskill is the most at risk D senator up in 2018.
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Old Yesterday, 10:08 PM   #59
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

McCaskill, Donnelly then it's really close, maybe even Nelson. That's based on model plus senator approval ratings plus likely quality of challengers.

PA & OH are really safe. Maybe not 96% safe but definitely over 90%. WI a little riskier because Baldwin isn't particularly popular but she'd need a lot to go wrong to lose. An unexpectedly strong primary challenger plus a tightening of the generic could make it interesting but really she should win.
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Old Today, 02:06 AM   #60
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

What odds can I get on the D's gaining 60 house seats but not gaining control of the senate?
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Old Today, 02:54 AM   #61
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Can someone make a new thread for the midterms? Feel like the OP kinda despoils this one. I may try in a week if no one else does.
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Old Today, 02:59 PM   #62
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

w00t the despoiler
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Old Today, 03:01 PM   #63
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

w00t thinks presidential election electoral votes in wisconson are counted on the basis of all-or-nothing sub-electoral votes by county so it does seem unfair for him to start the midterm election thread but you gotta admit it's funny
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