the problem is that you arent including gerrymandering, voter suppression, selective purging of voters and other kinds of outright fraud in your analysis.

While there are universes in which Cruz loses, there are no universes in which Cruz loses and Heidtkamp/Tester/ and/or Donnelly lose. It would have to be a blue tsunami for Cruz to lose (possible, but not particularly likely), and these races are correlated with each other.

Edit: Unless Cruz gets caught with a dead girl or live boy I guess.

Chelsea Manning files to run for U.S. Senate in Maryland



I predict Chelsea Manning will not become senator of Maryland.

Any model that gives the PA/OH/WI seats a 96% of being Democrat is clearly flawed.

In theory, I could see WV being an outlier due to coal-related issues, but if they're angry, it's likely to be with Trump for not doing anything effective for them, which would mean a bigger blue wave there than nationally.

To play Devil's advocate, here are the Cook PVI's by state:

Montana (Tester) R+11
North Dakota (Heitkamp) R+17
Indiana (Donnelly) R+9
West Virginia (Manchin) R+19

Texas is R+8 and Cruz has bad favorable/unfavorables. Those four all won their seats in an Obama election, so it's possible, but still massively unlikely, that Dems lose one or more of those seats and win Texas. Incumbency matters.

For the vast majority of its history West Virginia was a very blue state. I envision heitkamp, manchin, and tester all winning because they are well cast for their respective states. Donnelly I am less sure about but Indiana politicians are the definition of boring and Donnelly is the most boring politician ever

I don't think Manning has a chance, and not because she's trans-gendered. Voters don't really like even a whiff of treason.

I think McCaskill is the most at risk D senator up in 2018.

McCaskill, Donnelly then it's really close, maybe even Nelson. That's based on model plus senator approval ratings plus likely quality of challengers.

PA & OH are really safe. Maybe not 96% safe but definitely over 90%. WI a little riskier because Baldwin isn't particularly popular but she'd need a lot to go wrong to lose. An unexpectedly strong primary challenger plus a tightening of the generic could make it interesting but really she should win.

What odds can I get on the D's gaining 60 house seats but not gaining control of the senate?

Can someone make a new thread for the midterms? Feel like the OP kinda despoils this one. I may try in a week if no one else does.

w00t the despoiler

w00t thinks presidential election electoral votes in wisconson are counted on the basis of all-or-nothing sub-electoral votes by county so it does seem unfair for him to start the midterm election thread but you gotta admit it's funny

Why does it not seem there is any pressure on Menendez not to run in 2020. Franken had to resign due to sexual harassment allegations but pay for play politics is not a big deal? Seems like this could jeopardize a safe seat and should damage dems credibility as they push against corruption in the Trump campaign.

prediction:

dems take the house and crack don jr like an egg on national tv

Well not that it settles the issue, but he was tried and 10/12 jurors found him not guilty. I would support a primary challenger, but more for him being an Israel hawk than pay-to-play.

Menendez was found not guilty because the Supreme Court decided that bribery is legal as long you don't say, "yes I would like to do a crime with you, please give me $100,000 and I will take official acts to help you in my official role as a Senator of the United States of America."

Menendez is a scumbag and Ds should absolutely primary him.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/201...de_the_in.html

Menendez's "friend" is a scumbag who defrauded $105 million from Medicare. Menendez tried to help him with his Medicare fraud case and helped him with many other things over the years. Menendez received lavish gifts from the doctor and $100ks of campaign contributions. Menendez's defense is that the two were great friends and helped each other because of their friendship rather than him being bribed. Functionally, it is impossible to tell the difference between the two, so the pro-bribery SC precedent lets him off the hook legally. But he absolutely should not be a US Senator.

he wasn't found not guilty, it was a hung jury and the prosecutor has publicly announced he plans to try again


idk if he's a scumbag, the only thing i read about menendez is one of the jurors got excused to go on a vacation and she told reporters the prosecution was bull**** and menendez was obv innocent. i lol'd cause this woman thought her vacation was more important than vindicating a guy standing trial who she thought was innocent and the judge ok'd it because vacations are evidently the most important thing

Meh. Who reads OPs, really?

Trump begging Corky to stay in the Senate would be...something

Corker going back on his word? You don't say.

well in my district in ks3 Im confident dems can take the seat this time around so thats +1 pick up in the house for dems. I will be campaigning.

How is the special election for pa-18 going to work with the redistricting. It seems they are going to go ahead with the special election with the old map. Does that mean when they run the elections in November they will have to run again, or will the winner become the rep for the newly drawn district?

dem won bama