Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
While there are universes in which Cruz loses, there are no universes in which Cruz loses and Heidtkamp/Tester/ and/or Donnelly lose. It would have to be a blue tsunami for Cruz to lose (possible, but not particularly likely), and these races are correlated with each other.
Edit: Unless Cruz gets caught with a dead girl or live boy I guess.
In theory, I could see WV being an outlier due to coal-related issues, but if they're angry, it's likely to be with Trump for not doing anything effective for them, which would mean a bigger blue wave there than nationally.
To play Devil's advocate, here are the Cook PVI's by state:
Montana (Tester) R+11
North Dakota (Heitkamp) R+17
Indiana (Donnelly) R+9
West Virginia (Manchin) R+19
Texas is R+8 and Cruz has bad favorable/unfavorables. Those four all won their seats in an Obama election, so it's possible, but still massively unlikely, that Dems lose one or more of those seats and win Texas. Incumbency matters.