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Old 01-09-2018, 02:02 AM   #1
w00t
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The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

The Democrats are just so ****ed in 2018 Senate midterms.

Retake control of the Senate ?

Prediction: I don't think so.


http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/03/politi...ary/index.html
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Old 01-09-2018, 02:16 AM   #2
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

How is this guy not banned yet?
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Old 01-09-2018, 02:21 AM   #3
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...hread-1638166/
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Old 01-09-2018, 11:14 AM   #4
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian View Post
I do think the midterms should have its own thread, just not by this guy. Probably most important midterms of our collective lives.
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Old 01-09-2018, 11:17 AM   #5
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

He got exiled from the worst thread on 2p2 so he decided to make politics his home instead.
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Old 01-09-2018, 03:49 PM   #6
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Perhaps the mods enjoy watching people sow chaos but ban once they get bored of it.
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Old 01-10-2018, 02:33 PM   #7
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

FWIW: my senate model.

Nate seems to agree which is a good sign.
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Old 01-10-2018, 02:53 PM   #8
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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FWIW: my senate model.

Nate seems to agree which is a good sign.
This is great. I especially like this little nugget.

Quote:
In eight midterm elections from 1986–2014 only four incumbent senators lost reelection while “in opposition”. Two of these were in 1998 and two in 2002 — the Senators were running against stratospherically popular presidents, an environment unlikely to replicate itself in 11 months.
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Old 01-10-2018, 03:34 PM   #9
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

That's true but ... there were very few elections where incumbents were trying to hold off challengers in PVI -19 (WV) or PVI -17 (ND) seats like we see in 2018. Something like 0 seats as "hostile" as WV and 1 as hostile as ND. So while the record suggest OH is very safe (way safer than most pundits predict) and VA is a lock (ditto), I'd caution against thinking Dems will hold all their seats even in a D+10 environment.
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Old 01-10-2018, 03:35 PM   #10
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

I'll make a good thread tonight. Then, please literally lock thread ban op.
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Old 01-10-2018, 03:56 PM   #11
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

Jesus, we go from one blowhard who made this OP to another blowhard wanting to re-do the thread because he thinks he's less of a blowhard.

Who gives a ****.
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Old 01-10-2018, 03:59 PM   #12
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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FWIW: my senate model.

Nate seems to agree which is a good sign.
This house model is decent. My instinct is it underestimates D's chance of taking the house but I haven't run any numbers of myself so......
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Old 01-10-2018, 04:03 PM   #13
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

we deserve a better op but awval started the main thread so who cares the forum is blown already
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Old 01-10-2018, 04:04 PM   #14
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

re: previous models

i think a record breaking number of democrats are running this year
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Old 01-10-2018, 05:35 PM   #15
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2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

I'm the OP and I have no problem with this thread getting nuked and another one is started.

Prediction: Democrats have a net loss of 5 Senate seats, which will really jack up Trump.

55/45 Republicans to Democrats and independents.

The Sen. McCain situation might change this by one.
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Old 01-10-2018, 07:15 PM   #16
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Jesus, we go from one blowhard who made this OP to another blowhard wanting to re-do the thread because he thinks he's less of a blowhard.

Who gives a ****.
Only because I can foresee this thread being 80% arguing with OP and making fun of him, 20% actual good discussion about 2018 mid terms.

Hoping to get involved & volunteer for the first time this midterm and think a good thread with constructive discussion would be awesome. Plus we need a thread that includes the house midterms obv.
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Old 01-10-2018, 07:18 PM   #17
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Re: 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Originally Posted by w00t View Post
I'm the OP and I have no problem with this thread getting nuked and another one is started.

Prediction: Democrats have a net loss of 5 Senate seats, which will really jack up Trump.

55/45 Republicans to Democrats and independents.

The Sen. McCain situation might change this by one.
Just your run of the mill center left poster here
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Old 01-10-2018, 07:41 PM   #18
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian View Post
re: previous models

i think a record breaking number of democrats are running this year
I think we'll see the same thing on the republican side. crazy people all just saw Trump win and are now thinking they can win too. Also a bunch of R incumbents are retiring.
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Old 01-10-2018, 08:12 PM   #19
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian View Post
we deserve a better op but awval started the main thread so who cares the forum is blown already
everyone knows the OP in the main thread is literally amazing for politards. the OPs in this forum typically are terrible.
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Old 01-10-2018, 08:37 PM   #20
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread



No idea if there is any connection, but republicans in 2009 is the second highest amount on this chart and that's when republicans absolutely crushed in 2010
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Old 01-10-2018, 09:27 PM   #21
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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everyone knows the OP in the main thread is literally amazing for politards. the OPs in this forum typically are terrible.
i'm just busting your balls there's no improving on the main thread or this thread. if w00t wants to center-left up the forum he'll do it in a new thread too
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Old 01-10-2018, 10:38 PM   #22
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

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Originally Posted by awval999 View Post
everyone knows the OP in the main thread is literally amazing for politards. the OPs in this forum typically are terrible.
That OP is a magical snapshot of the time you were fawning over Daddy Trump, and should be preserved for posterity.
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Old 01-10-2018, 11:03 PM   #23
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

It's better than average. "Amazing" is serious overreach.
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Old 01-11-2018, 12:22 AM   #24
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

the new thing is to confidently assert what everyone knows or what everyone believes, thus making it reality
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Old 01-11-2018, 01:18 AM   #25
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Re: The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread

I'm not flag waver either way, but about a year ago I made a bet that the GOP would pick up Senate seats in 2018. I based that on the fact that a lot of incumbents were elected in the big Obama sweep in 2012. Based on the way the White House has performed, I'm feeling much less confident about this, but if I'm on the wrong side of this bet, this would be the first political bet I've ever lost. I feel more confident that the House will swing Democratic than the Senate will. We'll see. It's certainly going to be an interesting year. (Low stakes bet fwiw).
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