The 2018 Senate midterm elections & predictions thread - Page 8 - Politics and Economics

Yeah, actually surprised Tipirneni is doing that well. I've read a couple of articles pointing out how horrible the demographics are for Dems in that district, as well as the obvious fact that R's win it routinely by over 20 points and have done so for decades. If we can hold at like -8, this would be a massive win for Dems in November, as it forces the GOP to spend a lot of money defending safe seats.

04-24-2018 , 11:24 PM

#178

uDevil

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Yeah, ok.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/988978035771826176?s=19

04-24-2018 , 11:29 PM

#179

uDevil

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Lol conservatives.

https://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/statu...674853376?s=19

https://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/statu...220336129?s=19

04-25-2018 , 12:37 AM

#180

m_reed05

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First batch of same day came in Tiperneni +10. Not enough to pull off the miracle, but enough to make it even closer and an even worse sign for gop.

04-25-2018 , 01:25 AM

#181

StimAbuser

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So assuming Trump is guilty of a bunch of significant crimes, what does he do if it becomes clear the dems are gonna win the house and possibly even senate? I feel like he'd have to be in pretty big panic mode at that point and think him likely to try some crazy stuff.

04-25-2018 , 04:14 AM

#182

simplicitus

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Oh, I predict the the next 6 months will be much crazier than the last 6 (which are the current record holder). Manafort will go to trial, Mueller will issue report on obstruction, a bunch of info will be learned about SDNY case, economy will likely get worse, dreamers will be deported, lots of craziness ahead.

Strong showing to lose by 5-6% in this district.

How Trump handles it? I wouldn't be shocked if he quits, but he wants to hold onto the pardon power.

04-25-2018 , 05:06 PM

#183

cuserounder

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Quote:

Originally Posted by simplicitus

How Trump handles it? I wouldn't be shocked if he quits, but he wants to hold onto the pardon power.

I wouldn't be shocked if he pardons himself and his family, then resigns... but only if he's facing likely impeachment.

Spoiler:

04-25-2018 , 06:13 PM

#184

simplicitus

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https://twitter.com/pollbuster/statu...65748651577345

04-25-2018 , 06:38 PM

#185

cuserounder

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Quote:

Originally Posted by simplicitus

https://twitter.com/pollbuster/statu...65748651577345

Only a small change from the last Ipsos poll (44-35).

04-25-2018 , 06:40 PM

#186

cuserounder

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Ipsos uses a registered voter filter as their default. If you switch to likely voters, you get Dems +7.5, which is right around the margin of the gerrymander.

04-25-2018 , 07:32 PM

#187

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 58,708

Quote:

Originally Posted by simplicitus

https://twitter.com/pollbuster/statu...65748651577345

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

Ipsos uses a registered voter filter as their default. If you switch to likely voters, you get Dems +7.5, which is right around the margin of the gerrymander.

So a greater percentage of R voters are "likely voters" compared to D voters?

That's infuriating.

04-25-2018 , 09:19 PM

#188

zikzak

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In the past, yes. Things might be different this time around.

04-25-2018 , 09:29 PM

#189

cuserounder

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Quote:

Originally Posted by eyebooger

So a greater percentage of R voters are "likely voters" compared to D voters?

That's infuriating.

Yeah, like zikak said, typically R voters are more reliable in turnout. A big part of the reason for the success in special elections though is that Dems have been turning out because they are very energized right now.

04-26-2018 , 08:57 AM

#190

simplicitus

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A note of caution that is hopefully misguided.

Quote:

Overall, our House outlook remains the same: Democrats are about 50-50 to win the House. What these ratings change do is make clear that in the event of a big wave, there are some districts that might not seem competitive on paper that could flip, particularly because a deep bench of Democratic candidates is in place to capitalize on a potentially great environment in the fall. That’s where one could see Democrats picking up substantially more than the 23 net seats they need to win House control. However, the Democratic wave could fail to materialize, and Democratic gains could be limited to the teens. At this juncture, the range of possibilities in the House is wide. We realize that may be an unsatisfying and overly cautious assessment, but that’s where we’re at right now with the election still half a year away.

In total, we have 211 House seats rated Safe/Likely/Leaning Republican, 198 Safe/Likely/Leaning Democratic, and 26 Toss-ups. Splitting the Toss-ups evenly, 13-13, would lead to a 224-211 Republican House, a 16-seat Democratic gain from the current House, which is 240-195 Republican assuming no vacancies.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...c-house-gains/

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