I predict a 50-50 senate.

without looking at any polling or anything,

Manchin wins
Heidtkamp loses
one of Tester or Donnelly loses.
Smith (or whoever in MN) wins.

Heller loses
Cruz loses
McSally wins
Blackburn wins

so that's 51R-47+2. will revisit this sometime in September.

Cruz losing is a hawt take

O'Rourke is making a serious bid for Cruz's seat. It's still a longshot, but he's campaigning hard and putting in real work. It isn't a token run.

Arizona is interesting. My understanding is if McCain leaves after June 30 the appointment will last until 2020. If he leaves after June 30th but before the November election and assuming Mcsalley has won the primary, do you think Ducey appoints her, or would he appoint one of the wackos and try to snag both seats?

Ducey is up for reelection, he's won't appoint Arpaio.

Appointing one of the two wackos makes it harder to take both seats. McSally likely loses primary 1v1 vs either, who would then be big dog in general.

Most likely is appointment of someone not running for Flake's seat as that maximizes McSally's shot at winning primary.

Cruz probably wins reelection, but Trump's approval rating in Texas has been around -10. Cruz losing is way more likely than most people think.

This poll shows Cruz at -4 (39/43) on job approval.

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set...l-october-2017

Turnout is what won Trump the election, it is also what won Doug Jones the election. I see turnout amongst Dems to be very high, as comparisons are failing to see that most of the people who disapprove Trump really hate Trump. A lot of the approve of Trump that really love him will not be bothered to vote in a senate election and some of them were first time voters.
There is also a lot more relative funding for the Democrats to get that turnout they need.

Could be the optimist in me, but when Democrats come close in Republican >+20 environments in Georgia before Trump's approval ratings plunged I see something that models are neglecting.

Unlike Roy Moore, Ted Cruz could get caught sexually harassing teenage girls and easily get reelected.

Texans have even less morals than Alabamians.

If I had to set the betting line it would be Ted Cruz -10 and I would lay the points.

Heitkamp's biggest potential threat just announced he's not running against her.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...-dakota-336495

Some will win...Some will lose... Everyone will be singing the blues...

Nothing will change for the better ever.

If you would lay the points, then your line is wrong. DUCY?

That's how it's worded in the real world by hundreds of millions of people.

Do tell so I can be annoyed.

doesn’t understand:

gambling
politics
posting on a forum

^^^ you need to get a life.

I actually feel bad for you and those who have to interact with you in the real world.

Predict gives Ds a ~30% chance to take Cruz's seat.

Guy is one of the most viscerally hateable humans in the country. His one draw was his image of being "principled" but he has exposed himself as a massive fraud in the last year. Putting issues aside, Trump calls his wife ugly and says his father murdered JFK, and Cruz bends the knee anyway. What a cuck!

We got a new dumbest w00t post ever, which is always impressive with the high bar he sets

Should definitely be "fewer morals".

How much would you like to wager? I'll take O'Rourke +10.

I guess this means UD not CY.

The line should be the point at which you are indifferent to taking either side. If you set the line and still prefer a side, you've done it wrong. You're welcome.

I can't figure what Beto O'Rourke's metagame is.

Is he throwing away his Congressional seat for this Senate bid stunt ?

Or does he think he's gonna run for both seats at the same time ?

Dems need to run constant ads using this line of attack (the picture of him phonebanking for Trump should be everywhere, adorned with some well chosen quotes). Label Ted Cruz as the swamp that needs to be drained. Guarantee R turnout will be driven down bigly.

How much would you like to wager? I'll take O'Rourke +10.