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Old 06-06-2018, 12:02 AM   #76
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Originally Posted by chuckleslovakian View Post
So the districts to be sweating is CA-39 and CA-48 right?
And 10 apparently. 49 is Issa's old district with a billion candidates, but Ds look cozy there so far (R 32, D 19, D 12 at the moment with 15k votes in)
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Old 06-06-2018, 12:10 AM   #77
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

NJ did fine.
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Old 06-06-2018, 12:10 AM   #78
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

I'm learning from MSNBC that Montana is only 2 points away (33-31) from nominating someone named "Fagg" to challenge Tester - that's an interesting name to have in 2018
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Old 06-06-2018, 12:17 AM   #79
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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And 10 apparently. 49 is Issa's old district with a billion candidates, but Ds look cozy there so far (R 32, D 19, D 12 at the moment with 15k votes in)
To add to this - honestly I thought 39/49 would be more trouble than the others. It's utterly bizarre to me that incumbent Republicans (Denham, Rohrabacher) are generating such strong support for Republican challengers in the ~15% range. Rohrabacher's been in Congress since the late 80s, how is he not even getting twice as many votes as the Republican trying to primary him??
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Old 06-06-2018, 12:44 AM   #80
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

48 is looking like the big sweat. It is close and **** off if Rohrabacher doesn't get a democratic challenger
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Old 06-06-2018, 01:10 AM   #81
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Old 06-06-2018, 01:43 AM   #82
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Leon advances.

Looks like dems lost their super majority in the state senate due to Josh Newman being recalled for supporting the gas tax.
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Old 06-06-2018, 01:59 AM   #83
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Why?
I meant 3rd. If he comes in 4th, I should have voted for a better Dem, and I was counting on you to guide me.
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Old 06-06-2018, 02:45 AM   #84
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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- prop E: banning sale of flavored tobacco in the city, tobacco industry spending a ton of $$ against this, tons of billboards and radio ads and phone calls/text messages about it
- prop F: to provide lawyers for evicted tenants, a pet project of DSA types around here
- prop H: sneaky attempt by SF police officers to give themselves more latitude to use tasers against people
Looks like these three are all going the right way (yes on E, yes on F, no on H). One unfortunate result is what I think is a bad proposition looks like it's going to succeed - it says that you have to step down from SF city office (basically, board of supervisors, which is our city council) to run for higher office. Two supervisors ran for state senate recently, two supervisors are currently running for mayor, and I think that's a good thing that makes elections more competitive - now people are going to be discouraged because maybe they lose their seat for good.
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Old 06-06-2018, 02:57 AM   #85
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

You can lock up district 49 (Issa's, Ds are in 2nd 3rd 4th) and probably 39 (Royce's, the D in 2nd is 4.5 points ahead of the 3rd place R). Sweats remaining are...

10: Denham 37.9, Harder (D) 15.4, Howze (R) 14.0 with 61% reporting
48: Rohrabacher 30.4, Keirstead (D) 17.3, Baugh (R) 16.7, Rouda (D) 16.3 with 78% reporting
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Old 06-06-2018, 03:18 AM   #86
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Update in 48:

Rohrabacher 30.1
Keirstead (D) 17.3
Rouda (D) 17.2
Baugh (R) 16.2

93% reporting. lockout averted, you'd have to say.
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Old 06-06-2018, 03:20 AM   #87
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Rouda was the one with the tabulation error or something, right? That's quite a surge for him
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Old 06-06-2018, 09:12 AM   #88
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Any new news on what they're doing about the 118k left off LA county voter rolls? That seems like a big deal.
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Old 06-06-2018, 10:45 AM   #89
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Any new news on what they're doing about the 118k left off LA county voter rolls? That seems like a big deal.
Provisional ballots. I'd like to know how it happened.

My 16yo worked at a polling station all day. I haven't had the chance to talk to her about it yet though.
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Old 06-06-2018, 03:45 PM   #90
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Any takes on last night?

Jungle primaries are nuts, dunno if I like them.

CA didn't really look as great as I expected. Dunno if because Primaries, jungle primary, or people pissed at the gas tax. I know tons of people who don't follow politics but know enough to hate Trump that were still really pissed about the gas tax. I tried to explain its pretty reasonable to tax people who drive on roads to help fix the darn roads lol. But gas prices are already insane here so yeah people gonna be outraged regardless of common sense.
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Old 06-06-2018, 03:50 PM   #91
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Gas tax increases each fill-up by a couple dollars (if that), time to burn down the establishment

In TROLLOLOLOL news

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Old 06-06-2018, 03:54 PM   #92
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Politico’s headline is “Democrats avoided a debacle in California, and women fared well all over. But the Bernie Sanders revolution continued to sputter”.
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Old 06-06-2018, 04:19 PM   #93
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Newsom amplifying John Cox in his media ads certainly helped, though probably not as much as the Trump endorsement. Still, Newsom would have deserved a portion of the blame if D's had been locked out in a competitive House race. Villaraigosa's weakness was surprising, he never kicked on from early name recognition in the polls.

And because the Rs did consolidate at the top of the ticket, I don't think they will be too disappointed about failing to consolidate in the Senate. How much money will Democrats spend fighting each other, when resources could be allocated to more important races? Everyone knows Feinstein is much too hawkish, but we'll see how the somewhat establishment De Leon plays it.
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Old 06-06-2018, 04:22 PM   #94
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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How much money will Democrats spend fighting each other, when resources could be allocated to more important races?
I think the answer is: not that much. De Leon has a super uphill battle and not a lot of cash. Feinstein will likely coast to victory.

I'm glad he made the top two and would prefer he won, but I'm not bullish on his actual chances.
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Old 06-06-2018, 04:26 PM   #95
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Old 06-06-2018, 04:41 PM   #96
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Was really hoping Menendez would get primaried
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Old 06-06-2018, 05:27 PM   #97
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Can't imagine agricultural tariffs having much effect in flipping Central Valley R's to D's. The farming mindset is very much a Fox News-centric world and harmful tariffs can be explained away to where they won't have to violate their cultural world view by voting D. Much more success for D's in mobilizing the Latino vote in these areas.
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Old 06-06-2018, 06:47 PM   #98
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

I don't really understand the point of a jungle primary. Why not just have a jungle general and then runoffs?
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Old 06-06-2018, 06:55 PM   #99
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Was really hoping Menendez would get primaried
It probably would have happened if there had been a credible challenger. A nobody with 1,500 signatures and 800 FB followers just took 38%.

In this case I’m glad he didn’t lose. Lisa McCormick is...just no. Cool resume item for her considering she raised no money. Her winning yesterday would have been a disaster in Nov.
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Old 06-06-2018, 08:37 PM   #100
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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I don't really understand the point of a jungle primary. Why not just have a jungle general and then runoffs?
Runoffs are bad for Dems DUCY
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