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Old 05-22-2018, 11:42 PM   #26
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Saw a NYT headline that a black woman won the Dem primary for governor in GA, which is a first for either party in any state
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Old 05-22-2018, 11:43 PM   #27
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Dude was a 30 year old deplorable being groomed by the turtle.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/new...fort/90428204/

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"I think before the recruiting was not terrific," McConnell said. "We were without a candidate in many winnable districts. Our state continues to get redder, even though the Democrats controlled the state House."

He named central Kentucky State Rep. Jonathan Shell, R-Lancaster, the head of a campaign committee to recruit candidates. Shell and McConnell have since personally met with dozens of candidates and spoke at fundraisers.

"It's truly amazing," Shell said. "With Sen. McConnell having to fight Barack Obama, getting harried every day by Nancy Pelosi and blocking Obama's Supreme Court nominations, he takes the time to call myself and ask questions, takes time to meet with the candidates in the recruitment process. He's doing everything he can."
**** that guy, couldn't be happy to seem him get primaried. Hope we've seen the last of him.
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Old 05-23-2018, 12:33 AM   #28
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Also in Kentucky on the (D) side, a former female fighter pilot (Amy McGrath) beat out the popular, openly-gay Mayor of Lexington for U.S. Congress 6th District.
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Old 05-23-2018, 03:02 AM   #29
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Originally Posted by Lawnmower Man View Post
Also in Kentucky on the (D) side, a former female fighter pilot (Amy McGrath) beat out the popular, openly-gay Mayor of Lexington for U.S. Congress 6th District.
There is a correct conclusion here, and it actually has nothing to do with Gray being a popular, and gay mayor.

Here is Amy's first ad



She came full bad ass and I want to fight for you, **** Mitch, lets keep health care as it is.

I mean this was trending on youtube. People were mentioning this ad on the forum not even from Kentucky

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...k#post52638340

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...k#post52639165

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...k#post52645997

Here is a Jim Gray ad



That is just significantly weaker than Amy's ad.

Democrats needs to take notes from Amy's ad, and avoid Gray's ad.
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Old 05-23-2018, 03:47 AM   #30
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

This guy's probably going to get wrecked in a super red district, but you've gotta admire the cojones.

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Old 05-23-2018, 04:07 AM   #31
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Yeah she's great in the ad and also in interviews. As good as Gray has been as mayor, he just doesn't grade out in these ads at all. I guess I don't really understand why she's running in KY 6 though.
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Old 05-23-2018, 04:41 AM   #32
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Yeah she's great in the ad and also in interviews. As good as Gray has been as mayor, he just doesn't grade out in these ads at all. I guess I don't really understand why she's running in KY 6 though.
KY-6 is the only flippable Kentucky seat for at least the next decade...
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Old 05-23-2018, 04:56 AM   #33
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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This guy's probably going to get wrecked in a super red district, but you've gotta admire the cojones.

Sooooo good. Cmon Georgia! Do the right thing!
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Old 05-23-2018, 10:16 AM   #34
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
Saw a NYT headline that a black woman won the Dem primary for governor in GA, which is a first for either party in any state

Paulette Jordan mentioned above as D-Idaho is Native American and would be a first as well, one time America!
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Old 05-23-2018, 12:12 PM   #35
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Old 05-23-2018, 04:37 PM   #36
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Originally Posted by chuckleslovakian View Post
KY-6 is the only flippable Kentucky seat for at least the next decade...
I was almost positive that KY-4 had a registered Dem advantage like KY-6. I guess what I failed to realize is how much it has changed in under a decade. Obviously it is more complicated than this but here are the movements in voter registration in KY-4.

YEARD%R%ADV
201051.239.7D +11.5
201246.943.1D +3.8
201445.843.7D +2.2
201643.345.6R +2.3
201842.346.3R +4.1

That said, I'm still not convinced that KY-4 is unwinnable or that putting her in Gray's district is the best strategy. The good scenarios are (A) she wins close and it's attributable to her being the highest-quality candidate or (B) she loses and the seat was never actually winnable. The bad scenarios are (C) the Blue Wave is huge and she had real equity in another district with Gray easily winning KY-6 or (D) she loses due to sexism and Gray actually had more equity.
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Old 05-28-2018, 06:00 PM   #37
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Olivia Wilde's mom is running for this seat as a dem.

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Old 05-28-2018, 06:14 PM   #38
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Olivia Wilde's mom produced and/or directed and/or on camera in documentaries mostly on Fronline:

Guns, Drugs, and the CIA
From the Killing Fields
The War We Left Behind
American Casino

I think her credits are probably better than Olivia's.
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Old 05-30-2018, 12:13 PM   #39
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Good ad. Dem on dem violence (of the good kind).

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Old 05-31-2018, 11:41 AM   #40
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Yeah it's good. I'm not super clued into the NY Dem scene (the really conservative Dems at least in some respects), but maybe that's what happens when the party has an absolute lock for a long enough period. Californians should take note as we have been moving into an era of one party rule.
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Old 05-31-2018, 12:56 PM   #41
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Old 05-31-2018, 01:01 PM   #42
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Originally Posted by simplicitus View Post
Olivia Wilde's mom is running for this seat as a dem.

This is a gettable seat if everything breaks right. Although it is definitely Republican because of gerrymandering, super liberal Charlottesville is in this district.

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Originally Posted by microbet View Post
Yeah it's good. I'm not super clued into the NY Dem scene (the really conservative Dems at least in some respects), but maybe that's what happens when the party has an absolute lock for a long enough period. Californians should take note as we have been moving into an era of one party rule.
Ugh. It sickens me that she will probably get crushed because her opponent is this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Crowley

http://nlpc.org/2017/05/25/rep-crowl...-pays-brother/

Quote:
Michael Gartland of the New York Post is applying more scrutiny to Rep. Joe Crowley (D-NY), the leader of the corrupt Queens, New York political machine. This time, Crowley is enriching his brother (and himself?) by successfully seeking $10 million in federal funding for a co-op for Bronx merchants
NY Democratic Party is the most corrupt in the country. It's basically impossible to successfully challenge incumbent Democrats. So disgusting.
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Old 05-31-2018, 03:36 PM   #43
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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A combination of the most insanely-stupid primary system in the country + too many Dem candidates cannibalizing each other will mean Dana Russiabacker wins again
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Old 05-31-2018, 03:41 PM   #44
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Rohrabacher + another R would have to finish top two in the primary for him to not face a D in the general, seems unlikely. How would a second R (when he's not facing a strong primary challenger) get more than every other D with an incumbent R in the race?

CA's best-in-the-nation primary is probably going to have two Ds running for Senate again just like 2016 (and outside shot at two Ds running for governor which would bigly depress R turnout in midterm house races), seems awesome imo
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Old 05-31-2018, 04:03 PM   #45
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Edit: Found where I had this exact conversation with goofy before, no need to rehash, although I'm not totally convinced of the awesomeness of this system.

Last edited by AllTheCheese; 05-31-2018 at 04:08 PM.
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Old 05-31-2018, 04:10 PM   #46
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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I have vague feeling of deja vu, so sorry if I'm making anybody repeat themselves, but from the outsider's perspective, my thinking on it is this.

Let's consider a conservative D incumbent in CA. You have the top two primary. The odds of an incumbent coming in 3rd or worse are close to 0. It's hard enough for one person to draw more votes than an incumbent, let alone two.

Now the top two vote getters proceed to the general. If it's the conservative D incumbent and a Republican, the D incumbent wins by party identification and incumbency advantage. If it's the conservative D incumbent and a progressive challenger, then all the Republicans vote for the incumbent and he or she can win with only 40% of the D vote. It seems like the system naturally entrenches conservative D power.
Without addressing hypotheticals, we have examples in practice we can look at to see if that's what's playing out:
- Eric Swalwell (who I think gets enough press in this forum that most prob know who he is?) made it to Congress by defeating Pete Stark, a 20-term incumbent D, in the general election
- Ro Khanna made it to Congress in a similar way by defeating 8-term incumbent D Mike Honda
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Old 06-04-2018, 01:56 PM   #47
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Old 06-04-2018, 04:19 PM   #48
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

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Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
Rohrabacher + another R would have to finish top two in the primary for him to not face a D in the general, seems unlikely. How would a second R (when he's not facing a strong primary challenger) get more than every other D with an incumbent R in the race?

CA's best-in-the-nation primary is probably going to have two Ds running for Senate again just like 2016 (and outside shot at two Ds running for governor which would bigly depress R turnout in midterm house races), seems awesome imo
Simple math. There are 8 Dems running in that primary while there are only 2 GOP. Probably 6 of those Dems have no business running but they are anyway. There are quite a few articles out there pointing this out and lots of people pushing Rouda to avoid the scenario we're discussing (2 GOP in the general going at each other w/out any Dems).
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Old 06-04-2018, 09:22 PM   #49
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Random thought ahead of CA primary tomorrow: SF has a contentious election for mayor taking place, so I wonder if that will spike turnout in SF relative to the rest of the state for the governor's race? Probably benefits Newsom (who's already expected to clean up) more than anyone though.
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Old 06-05-2018, 02:46 AM   #50
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Re: 2018 Primaries - Get Ridda Da Bums!

Newsom seems to have it locked up.
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