Saw a NYT headline that a black woman won the Dem primary for governor in GA, which is a first for either party in any state

Dude was a 30 year old deplorable being groomed by the turtle.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/new...fort/90428204/

**** that guy, couldn't be happy to seem him get primaried. Hope we've seen the last of him.

Also in Kentucky on the (D) side, a former female fighter pilot (Amy McGrath) beat out the popular, openly-gay Mayor of Lexington for U.S. Congress 6th District.

There is a correct conclusion here, and it actually has nothing to do with Gray being a popular, and gay mayor.

Here is Amy's first ad



She came full bad ass and I want to fight for you, **** Mitch, lets keep health care as it is.

I mean this was trending on youtube. People were mentioning this ad on the forum not even from Kentucky

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...k#post52638340

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...k#post52639165

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...k#post52645997

Here is a Jim Gray ad



That is just significantly weaker than Amy's ad.

Democrats needs to take notes from Amy's ad, and avoid Gray's ad.

This guy's probably going to get wrecked in a super red district, but you've gotta admire the cojones.

Yeah she's great in the ad and also in interviews. As good as Gray has been as mayor, he just doesn't grade out in these ads at all. I guess I don't really understand why she's running in KY 6 though.

KY-6 is the only flippable Kentucky seat for at least the next decade...

Sooooo good. Cmon Georgia! Do the right thing!

Paulette Jordan mentioned above as D-Idaho is Native American and would be a first as well, one time America!

Hey crazy thought but maybe instead of trying to win the hearts and minds of racist morons we should just push progressive candidates and get the base to turn out.

I was almost positive that KY-4 had a registered Dem advantage like KY-6. I guess what I failed to realize is how much it has changed in under a decade. Obviously it is more complicated than this but here are the movements in voter registration in KY-4.

YEAR	D%	R%	ADV
2010	51.2	39.7	D +11.5
2012	46.9	43.1	D +3.8
2014	45.8	43.7	D +2.2
2016	43.3	45.6	R +2.3
2018	42.3	46.3	R +4.1

That said, I'm still not convinced that KY-4 is unwinnable or that putting her in Gray's district is the best strategy. The good scenarios are (A) she wins close and it's attributable to her being the highest-quality candidate or (B) she loses and the seat was never actually winnable. The bad scenarios are (C) the Blue Wave is huge and she had real equity in another district with Gray easily winning KY-6 or (D) she loses due to sexism and Gray actually had more equity.

Olivia Wilde's mom is running for this seat as a dem.



https://twitter.com/WakeUp2Politics/...035926017?s=19

Olivia Wilde's mom produced and/or directed and/or on camera in documentaries mostly on Fronline:

Guns, Drugs, and the CIA
From the Killing Fields
The War We Left Behind
American Casino

I think her credits are probably better than Olivia's.

Good ad. Dem on dem violence (of the good kind).


https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/stat...46483401003009

Yeah it's good. I'm not super clued into the NY Dem scene (the really conservative Dems at least in some respects), but maybe that's what happens when the party has an absolute lock for a long enough period. Californians should take note as we have been moving into an era of one party rule.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/st...31635696373760

This is a gettable seat if everything breaks right. Although it is definitely Republican because of gerrymandering, super liberal Charlottesville is in this district.

Ugh. It sickens me that she will probably get crushed because her opponent is this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Crowley

http://nlpc.org/2017/05/25/rep-crowl...-pays-brother/

NY Democratic Party is the most corrupt in the country. It's basically impossible to successfully challenge incumbent Democrats. So disgusting.

A combination of the most insanely-stupid primary system in the country + too many Dem candidates cannibalizing each other will mean Dana Russiabacker wins again

Rohrabacher + another R would have to finish top two in the primary for him to not face a D in the general, seems unlikely. How would a second R (when he's not facing a strong primary challenger) get more than every other D with an incumbent R in the race?

CA's best-in-the-nation primary is probably going to have two Ds running for Senate again just like 2016 (and outside shot at two Ds running for governor which would bigly depress R turnout in midterm house races), seems awesome imo

Edit: Found where I had this exact conversation with goofy before, no need to rehash, although I'm not totally convinced of the awesomeness of this system.

Without addressing hypotheticals, we have examples in practice we can look at to see if that's what's playing out:
- Eric Swalwell (who I think gets enough press in this forum that most prob know who he is?) made it to Congress by defeating Pete Stark, a 20-term incumbent D, in the general election
- Ro Khanna made it to Congress in a similar way by defeating 8-term incumbent D Mike Honda

Simple math. There are 8 Dems running in that primary while there are only 2 GOP. Probably 6 of those Dems have no business running but they are anyway. There are quite a few articles out there pointing this out and lots of people pushing Rouda to avoid the scenario we're discussing (2 GOP in the general going at each other w/out any Dems).

Random thought ahead of CA primary tomorrow: SF has a contentious election for mayor taking place, so I wonder if that will spike turnout in SF relative to the rest of the state for the governor's race? Probably benefits Newsom (who's already expected to clean up) more than anyone though.

Newsom seems to have it locked up.