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Old 11-08-2018, 04:42 PM   #2476
simplicitus
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Fully agree that provisional ballots are a scam. While requirements differ, in some states people have to do things like to a courthouse within 3 days, which ain't happening in 99% of cases. Without a presumption of validity they are essentially a meaningless "solution" that resolves whatever discrepancy there was by sweeping it under the rug.
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Old 11-08-2018, 04:42 PM   #2477
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Where's Drake Sabitch and Mike Donnelly when you need them?
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Old 11-08-2018, 04:42 PM   #2478
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dominic View Post
The Escondido mayor flipping would actually be really big. Everyone in that town knows Sam Abed is a crook, but maybe the Dem GOTV machine got it done this time.
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Old 11-08-2018, 04:43 PM   #2479
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

I mean, let's do the purple thumb dye already.
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Old 11-08-2018, 04:45 PM   #2480
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andro View Post
Honestly, this shouldn't be that difficult to solve without needing handwriting analysis.

Where I live (Denmark), each citizen eligible for voting (essentially everyone aged 18+, we don't have to register to vote) gets sent a 'voter card' by mail to their address 3 weeks prior to the election. It's basically just a piece of paper with your info on it and some unique things on it that make it difficult to fake.

If you vote by mail, you send the voter card along with it. If you go to the voting station, you also need to bring the voter card and hand it in.

I can never remember a single case of any sort of voter fraud or doubt about legitimacy of votes. That's despite voter turnout being 85-90 % at general elections. This is one way to solve the whole issue that works perfectly fine here. I'm it's possible to create other ways or make this way even more efficient.

It's incredible to see from across the pond how the US is such a ****show when it comes to voting.
This is all fair but I think you are missing the point. All of the breathless hand-wringing about fraud is total pretense, total hysteria, done in total bad faith, and most of the chaos you reference is also sort of baked into the system, and done intentionally to disenfranchise voters.

They're features, not bugs. We're not missing consultants to show us an efficient way to vote, I mean yes America is full of idiots but we get it, it could obviously be done smarter and better, but in most places, it is absolutely by design that obstacles are put in place to confuse and irritate voters because cynical *******s that create this mess know that the kind of people who will cry uncle and disengage first are more likely to vote for Democrats.

I think it's fine and fair to think we're stupid, but it's too kind, we just have a huge part of the country and a powerful political faction that is ultimately undemocratic and really is almost gleeful about it. To chalk that up to stupidity or mass irrationality is to misunderstand the situation. They can't waltz onto TV and be like "yeah you know what, voting is really inconvenient for us, we're going to cheat" so they've resorted to intentional systemic obsolescence and disorder as their next best available option.
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Old 11-08-2018, 04:49 PM   #2481
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eyebooger View Post
From that link:


Wait, what? SIX HUNDRED THOUSAND? Is that right? That's like a fourth of the total votes.
Yup. They count super slow in Arizona. It hasn't been an issue in the past because they haven't had elections this close.
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Old 11-08-2018, 04:50 PM   #2482
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

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I mean, let's do the purple thumb dye already.
nah just have an app that lets people vote on their phones
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Old 11-08-2018, 04:51 PM   #2483
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

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Originally Posted by simplicitus View Post
Fully agree that provisional ballots are a scam. While requirements differ, in some states people have to do things like to a courthouse within 3 days, which ain't happening in 99% of cases. Without a presumption of validity they are essentially a meaningless "solution" that resolves whatever discrepancy there was by sweeping it under the rug.
Right. If they said "you can't vote," you might riot or throw rocks at them or be a pain in their ass, so voters are give you a faux provisional ballot that will never be counted, Republicans have a whole fleet of lawyers to descend into courts to make sure of that, it's just a different tentacle of the voter suppression scheme.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:07 PM   #2484
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.


Last edited by simplicitus; 11-08-2018 at 05:15 PM.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:07 PM   #2485
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

I am not a lawyer, but... There is about a 25K undervote in Broward County and Nelson is behind by 17K votes (and dwindling) as they continue to count votes from Nelson-favorable areas. If that undervote was random and not targeted, Nelson stands to gain a net of 8-9K votes during a hand recount based on the margins he ran up in Broward County. If it was targeted, he's already in the lead once they're counted.

We are far from dead in this thing.

That's based on the real undervote being like 3K instead of 25K, and counting 22K additional votes.

DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT A LAWYER OR AN ELECTION-LAW SPECIALIST.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:11 PM   #2486
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Also, in Arizona, I was seeing talk last night that we'd know by 7pm PST tonight whether it is legitimately too close to call, lean McSally or lean Sinema. Supposedly, Maricopa will be updating the totals around that time.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:13 PM   #2487
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Quote:
Originally Posted by master3004 View Post
Suburbs going red to blue is a HUGE deal.
I think this is less about people switching parties and more about the demographics of "suburbs" changing.

At least in the metropolitan areas I am familiar with that trend has been:

-80s though 90s upper and upper middle class married couples buy houses in suburbs to raise families.

-'00s-present: young people marrying and having kids later. Also placing more value on living close to employment and walkability of neighborhoods so they move to the city.

Property values in and around urban core skyrocket. New condos everywhere.

Working class people are pushed out to the suburbs where property values are decreasing.

Not that there aren't still super rich and predominately white suburbs but as a whole suburbs are less homogenous.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:17 PM   #2488
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1 View Post
Right. If they said "you can't vote," you might riot or throw rocks at them or be a pain in their ass, so voters are give you a faux provisional ballot that will never be counted, Republicans have a whole fleet of lawyers to descend into courts to make sure of that, it's just a different tentacle of the voter suppression scheme.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:18 PM   #2489
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

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Originally Posted by cuserounder View Post
There is a huge undervote in Broward County. 538 has moved that Senate race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.

Evidently the ballot was confusing in Broward County.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:20 PM   #2490
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

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Originally Posted by simplicitus View Post
**** THESE MOTHER****ING *********** PIECES OF ****ING ****!!!!!!!!

They're probably going to get away with jobbing Gillum, but not Nelson. It's going to get very interesting, though, to see how much the Nelson recount tightens Gillum's race if they're also confirming THOSE votes.

Lawyers, is that a thing? Or will the Senate recount be solely focused on the Senate race?

Like, does a hand count in Broward get to benefit both, or would Gillum need to fight for a similar hand count? (I know there was no undervote on the governor's race in Broward.)
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:21 PM   #2491
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Nelson now up to 25% on Predictit. I keep buying No and praying I lose.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:24 PM   #2492
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

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Originally Posted by Money2Burn View Post
Evidently the ballot was confusing in Broward County.
And apparently a Dem was in charge of designing it.

Because we root for literally the most incompetent party in modern history.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:32 PM   #2493
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cuserounder View Post
There is a huge undervote in Broward County. 538 has moved that Senate race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
More people voted for Agriculture Commissioner than Senate, lol. Seems legit. Probably cost Nelson like 10k votes.

Unfortunately, I think it's a ballot design problem because the undervote is consistent in both mailed votes and day-of votes.

So Democrats are getting ****ed in Florida by poor ballot design AGAIN. Unbelievable.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:35 PM   #2494
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Honestly the ballot isn’t that confusing, people are just dumb.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:42 PM   #2495
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

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That's one way of looking at it.

OTOH, Trump fared better than 6 of the last 9 presidents did during the mid-terms when their party was in power.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:44 PM   #2496
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

You guys are giving me hope. Getting 1 of AZ/FL would be big. Both would be a miracle.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:46 PM   #2497
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Might be ponied, but Nikki Fried, Dem Ag Commissioner candidate in FL took the read in the recount.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:49 PM   #2498
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus View Post
Based on 2017 Census estimates:

18-29: 54 million
65+: 51 million

"Next time the young people will vote!" - Everyone
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:50 PM   #2499
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

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Originally Posted by Money2Burn View Post
Honestly the ballot isn’t that confusing, people are just dumb.
People being dumb should be your #1 assumption if you are designing a ballot.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:55 PM   #2500
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re: 2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 13 Mia Love gets no Love.

Pretty lazy from the writers to recycle the same storyline in Florida from two decades ago.
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