The lesson, as always is be in a war and you'll get re-elected. People don't like to change horses mid-stream. Let us pray Trump is too stupid to figure it out.

Eh, the Watergate scandal didnt really metastasize until after the election.

Not sure what Watergate has to do with the relevance of the statistic

I'm not sure that statistic has much relevance anyway. That 92% number doesn't really indicate that 1970 was an overwhelming rebuke of Nixon's first 2 years in office, as 2018 was for Trump. Turnout wasn't especially high that year, nor was it even particularly Democratic. The number looks more extreme mostly because Nixon won in 1968 with a relatively low number of votes due to George Wallace's third party candidacy.

I don't know that there's much predictive value in comparing 2018 to 1970, but if I was reaching for something, I'd take the more optimistic view and point out that Democrats went on to hold an overwhelming House majority for the next 24 years after that. 1972 is more a lesson in just not running ****ty candidates if you don't want to get blown out.

Torres Small wins NM-2

Mia Love winning is somehow not that terrible since Trump publicly blamed her "loss" on her not showing him any LOVE

Mia Love is no longer winning



+40 is now in play:

lol why does it take these people 2 weeks to count 100k ballots, again?

waiting on mail-ins or some ****?

Are we not going to get any MS Senate polls before the runoff?

It's not obvious to the average person that's a confederate hat, but I'm sure the fine folks in Mississippi oh ****ing hell.

538 has the forecast for the House as D +40 now.

Is dressing up in confederate gear even abnormal in Mississippi?

Only seen when the hood is at the dry cleaners

In CA, at least, you can postmark your ballot on election day and still have it count.

I've been tracking San Diego County's ongoing count pretty closely, and it seems they get through about 25k-30k per day.

CA50 is basically a done deal, but it's gone from an 8% margin for Hunter on election night to ~4% now.

I’m old enough to remember when they said the D’s had a 3/8 chance to take the House.

i think the main issue is saying that's the best of Mississippi history. that amount of racism in that small statement is crazy.

Hah yeah it was like being on a crippled submarine the first third of the thread on election night

Ut-4 officially called for McAdams

**** never mind bye bye Mia

So, NYT has (with UT-4 included)...
- Dems +38
- NY-22 (D+0.8) uncalled
- GA-7 (R+0.4) uncalled
- NY-27 (R+0.9) uncalled
- CA-21 (R+1.0) called for GOP

538 isn't worried about NY-22, so if you give that one to Dems, that's D+39. Where is 538 getting their R+40 forecast? Are they bullish on CA-21 or figure the odds of CA-21 flipping + odds of one of the others flipping gets Dems, on average, one more seat?

Consensus seems to be that CA-21 is the best chance for Dems to get to +40.

I fired up the thread right on cue for that and you guys scared the crap out of me.

Yeah Nate said the prediction is actually 39.6 with CA-21 as a toss-up and then add a little more for the others.

NY22 is over, Brindisi (the dem) definitely has it. The absentees have been breaking heavily for him, he’s increased his e-day lead from 1300 to 3000 and that’s all thats left, and Tenney (the repub) would need to win the remaining absentees by like a 60 point margin to retake the lead. There are some pretty conservative areas of NY-22, but not that conservative, and they’re the part’s of NY-22 where the population is tiny.