Perfect accuracy not promised; hopefully a mod will edit the OP on anything I ****ed up. Obviously the list of races is not exhaustive and there will probably be upsets that aren't mentioned in this OP, but just what I quickly picked up as foreseeably competitive pickup opportunities for both parties (mostly Dem in this case) tonight. Obviously some more competitive than others, and I just jumbled in everything worth a look.

Dems need to pick up 23 to take over the House, two to take the Senate.

Let's do this.

(All times Eastern)

6:00 Closings: Indiana, Kentucky

Key Races

Indiana Senate - Donnelly (D) [i] vs. Braun (R)

KY-06 House - Barr (R) [i] vs. McGrath (D)

7:00 Closings: New Hampshire, Vermont, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida

Key Races

VA-02 House - Taylor (R) [i] vs. Luria (D)
VA-05 House (Open R) - Riggleman (R) vs. Cockburn (D)
VA-07 House - Brat (R) [i] vs. Spanberger (D)
VA-10 House - Comstock (R) [i] vs. Wexton (D)

Georgia Governor (Open R) - Kemp (R) vs. Abrams (D)
GA-06 House - Handel (R) [i] vs. McBath (D)

Florida Governor (Open R) - DeSantis (R) vs. Gillum (D)
Florida Senate - Nelson (D) [i] vs. Scott (R)
FL-06 House (Open R) - Waltz (R) vs. Soderberg (D)
FL-15 House (Open R) - Spano (R) vs. Carlson (D)
FL-26 House - Curbelo (R) [i] vs. Mucarsel-Powell (D)
FL-27 House (Open R) - Salazar (R) vs. Shalala (D)

7:30 Closings: North Carolina, West Virginia, Ohio

Key Races

NC-09 House (Open R) - Harris (R) vs. McCready (D)
NC-13 House - Budd (R) [i] vs. Manning (D)

West Virginia Senate - Manchin (D) [i] vs. Morrissey (R)

Ohio Governor (Open R) - DeWine (R) vs. Cordray (D)
Ohio Senate - Brown (D) [i] vs. Renacci (R)
OH-12 House - Balderson (R) [i] vs. O'Connor (D)

8:00 Closings: Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Michigan, Alabama, Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota

Key Races

ME-02 House - Poliquin (R) [i] vs. Golden (D)

Connecticut Governor - Lamont (D) [i] vs. Stefanowski (R)

New Jersey Senate - Menendez (D) [i] vs. Hugin (R)
NJ-02 House (Open R) - Grossman (R) vs. Van Drew (D)
NJ-03 House - MacArthur (R) [i] vs. Kim (D)
NJ-07 House - Lance (R) [i] vs. Malinowski (D)
NJ-11 House (Open R) - Webber (R) vs. Sherrill (D)

PA-01 House - Fitzpatrick (R) [i] vs. Wallace (D)
PA-05 House (Vacant) - Kim (R) vs. Scanlon (D)
PA-06 House (Open R) - McCauley (R) vs. Houlahan (D)
PA-07 House (Vacant) - Nothstein (R) vs. Wild (D)
PA-10 House - Perry (R) [i] vs. Scott (D)
PA-14 House (Open D) - Boerio (D) vs. Reschenthaler (R)

Tennessee Senate (Open R) - Blackburn (R) vs. Bredesen (D)

Michigan (Open R) - Schuette (R) vs. Widmer (D)
MI-08 House - Bishop (R) [i] vs. Slotkin (D)
MI-11 House (Open R) - Epstein (R) vs. Stevens (D)

Mississippi Senate (Special) - Hyde-Smith (R) [i] vs. Espy (D) vs. McDaniel (R) vs. Bartee (D) - runoff if no majority

Illinois Governor - Rauner (R) [i] vs. Pritzker (D)
IL-06 House - Roskam (R) [i] vs. Casten (D)
IL-12 House - Bost (R) [i] vs. Kelly (D)
IL-13 House - Davis (R) [i] vs. Londrigan (D)
IL-14 House - Hultgren (R) [i] vs. Underwood (D)

Missouri Senate - McCaskill (D) [i] vs. Hawley (R)

Texas Senate - Cruz (R) [i] vs. O'Rourke (D)
TX-07 House - Culberson (R) [i] vs. Fletcher (D)
TX-32 House - Sessions (R) [i] vs. Allred (D)

Kansas Governor (Open R) - Kobach (R) vs. Kelly (D)
KS-02 House (Open R) - Watkins (R) vs. Davis (D)
KS-03 House - Yoder (R) [i] vs. Davids (D)

North Dakota Senate - Heitkamp (D) [i] vs. Cramer (R)

South Dakota Governor (Open R) - Noem (R) vs. Sutton (D)

8:30 Closing: Arkansas

Nothing to see here...

(AR-02 is I guess an outside shot for Dem pickup to look at, but probably nothing here.)

9:00 Closings: New York, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Louisiana, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico

Key Races

NY-19 House - Faso (R) [i] vs. Delgado (D)
NY-22 House - Tenney (R) [i] vs. Brindisi (D)

Wisconsin Governor - Walker (R) [i] vs. Evers (D)
WI-01 House (Open R) - Steil (R) vs. Bryce (D)

MN-01 House (Open D) - Feehan (D) vs. Hagedorn (R)
MN-02 House - Lewis (R) [i] vs. Craig (D)
MN-03 House - Paulsen (R) [i] vs. Phillips (D)
MN-08 House (Open D) - Radinovich (D) vs. Stauber (R)

NE-02 House - Bacon (R) [i] vs. Eastman (D)

CO-06 House - Coffman (R) [i] vs. Crow (D)

NM-02 House (Open R) - Herrell (R) vs. Small (D)

10:00 Closings: Iowa, Montana, Utah, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho

Key Races

Iowa Governor - Reynolds (R) [i] vs. Hubbell (D)
IA-01 House - Blum (R) vs. Finkenauer (D)
IA-03 House - Young (R) [i] vs. Axne (D)
IA-04 House - KKKing (R) [i] vs. Scholten (D)

Montana Senate - Tester (D) [i] vs. Rosendale (R)
MT At-Large House - Gianforte (R) [i] vs. Williams (D)

UT-04 House - Love (R) [i] vs. McAdams (D)

Arizona Senate (Open R) - McSally (R) vs. Sinema (D)
AZ-02 House (Open R) - Peterson (R) vs. Kirkpatrick (D)

Nevada Governor (Open R) - Laxalt (R) vs. Sisolak (D)
Nevada Senate - Heller (R) [i] vs. Rosen (D)

11:00 Closings: Washington (mail-in), Oregon, California

Key Races

WA-08 House (Open R) - Rossi (R) vs. Schrier (D)

CA-10 House - Denham (R) [i] vs. Harder (D)
CA-25 House - King (R) [i] vs. Hill (D)
CA-39 House (Open R) - Kim (R) vs. Cisneros (D)
CA-45 House - Walters (R) [i] vs. Porter (D)
CA-48 House - Rohrabacher (R) [i] vs. Rouda (D)
CA-49 House (Open R) - Harkey (R) vs. Levin (D)
CA-50 House - Hunter (R) [i] [indicted] vs. Campa-Najjar (D)

12:00 Closings: Alaska, Hawaii

AK At-Large House - Young (R) [i] vs. Galvin (D)

In before merge. Much better than Riverman's.

This one imo.

EDIT: Looks like cursed thread was already locked. Good job mods.

Thumbup

One note on Indiana, particularly as it's one of the first closures and there will naturally be overreactions early on to the only real results to focus on: I believe that the Gary area, which is one of the bigger liberal pockets of the state, will close an hour later because it's in Central Time. I don't know how quickly each county gets counted, but it does seem like a slow start for Donnelly in that first hour can be recovered with some second-hour reinforcements as long as he's hanging close.

There has to be better uses for money than John Cox playing ads like he actually will become governor. Dumbass could literally take the money he burns on that ****, dump it over LA from a helicopter and have an infinitely better chance to get votes

People are saying the KY-06 race should be a leading indicator, if Barr loses Dems should have a great night.

Does that also mean if Donnelly gets a few percentage point lead early, it's a REALLY good sign? Or will Gary's late end time be offset by the slower counting of the more rural areas?

I don't think that's what's happening here. But a new tactic I just thought of that Trump will probably "jokingly" suggest at some point - all the olds with no jobs get to the polls early and sit in the booth forever - thus making huge lines to scare off the youngs who have jobs, kids, etc. to get back to.

Nice op. Thanks for putting this together.

I really don't know the efficiency of each county in the state. I will say that I would be surprised if Lake County (Gary) was significantly more efficient than other counties.

Obviously Donnelly needs to wafflecrush in Marion County (Indy), so if he's showing an early lead but it's on that basis, that's nothing to get excited about. Really just depends on when precincts are reporting.

Voting should be a points system: 1 x life expectancy points per vote. ****ing olds get to steal our money, ruin the environment and reinstitute segregation then FOAD? Bull****

https://twitter.com/VicBergerIV/stat...10986339618816

Good, useful OP.

In to hear the words “Cuyahoga County” uttered aloud for the first time in exactly two years

the tweet is rediculous. young first time voters are not entirely braindead. it doesnt take 30 minutes to read the damn ballot. theres nothing confusing about it.

I'm a new transplant to fl-15, hoping to watch it turn blue tonight. If this district flips its gonna be a good night.

Get ready to hear about DELAWARE COUNTY in my district (the Balderson/OConnor one that just had a runoff). It’s absolutely packed with $100k+, well educated, super ****ing racist while people the media wants so, so badly to not be racist *******s.

The CA ballot is absurd. If I walked into the polling place without having looked at it before, and if I cared to think through the various issues, it could easily take an hour.

It’s bull**** of course. No one is taking 30 minutes to read a ballot. Maybe if someone would Show Them that this thing called “early voting” exists they would adopt it. Or we can just blame the youngs for our own stupidity, whatever

I appreciate that VA Senate is omitted from the key races list. It's accurate because either Kaine crushes as expected, or Stewart wins and democracy is over, voiding this entire thread.

OP doesn't list proposals, but Michigan has 3 pretty important ones (imo)
recreational marijuana
voter rights package (early voting, auto registration, no reason absentee)
anti-gerrymandering (districts by independent committee)

Perhaps tomorrow I will finally have a discussion about America that isn't related to how ****ed up it is.

Either that or I will have a discussion about America that is related to how ****ed it is.

If NJ matters in the overall scheme of things we may not find out for a few days the outcome. They made a change this year in abscentee ballots. They have to be postdated no latter than today to be counted. They used to have to arrive by this date to count.

I’m at the gym now. Then I gotta go home and figure out what I’m voting for. Planned to do it last night but those Mahomes highlights aren’t going to watch themselves.