And adding the 538 prediction for the toss-ups here whose polling you pulled...

(538 calls it a "lean" seat if over 60% for one side, "likely" if over 75), so they have only 17 of these seats as toss-ups in their model)

It's also probably helpful to refer back to this in the future: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...petitive_seats

(Wikipedia table of all competitive seats, "competitive" being any seat that any one of ~8 sites doing ratings think isn't safe R/safe D)

Good analysis by Dynasty and Goofy. My sense is that 538 is being a bit more aggressive than most places with house seats, but that aggressiveness is likely justified.

If you look into the Upshot polling of all competitive races, most seem to have a higher dem % if you skew (unskew?) the turnout model some, particularly with generally higher turnout.

My personal sense is that Trump had a lot of "screw politics, I'm voting for Trump" voters (maybe 20-25%, pulling it from my rear), and maybe 50% of those voters now see that Trump is just a different, worse form of normal politics.

Also, I can't see Trump-inspired crazies going on the rampage helping republicans.

Glad we have the Washington Post doing fact checking so voters are better informed and politicians are held accountable. No way that could be twisted by any candidates.

Oh wait.

THEY SHOULD ACKNOWLEDGE THEY MADE A MISTAKE

I'm in CA 48 and I think I might go to the local college campus and try to get people to go vote. Not sure the best way to go about this, maybe just a sign and yell at people for a few hours.

Is it illegal to offer them chipotle gift cards or something? College kids ****ing love chipotle.

Maybe at my UC it would be - but definitely not at my old local CC. It has a "free speech" area where basically anything goes. I've seen full on nazis in there before un-molested for hours.

Maybe a clipboard "enter to win" and winner has to mail me a receipt of their vote, and they win a PS4 or something. I don't know. Not looking to spend a ton of money but I want to try to do something, even if I only gain a few votes, I feel like this race is gonna come down to a few hundred.

I would say contact some disengaged friends to see if they're voting maybe.

I know Nate's model puts some stock in fundraising.

It will be interesting to see if fundraising is reflective of broader turnout. I suspect it will be, if only as indicative of moving the curve of "likely to vote" in favor of dems. Then again, maybe all the GOP small donors spent their money on MAGA hats and conservative scams.


https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/s...35308879630337

Axl is a bat**** crazy guy from the heartland, but he's doing his part to GOTV.


https://twitter.com/axlrose/status/1056736856455372800

Axl Rose not being a deplorable is surprising to me.

While I applaud the idea, I would check with someone reliable to make sure that's legal first

I’m not really seeing the legality issue here i guess - from an election standpoint or from the uni’s standpoint?

SCOTUS sits out of another redistricting battle

Election. IANAL, I'm just guessing that "can you provide fiscal incentives for people to vote" is a question the government has an interest in regulating, and possibly already has.

You snowflakes are going to get smashed, red wave yo.

Cant wait to see you clowns crying on Nov 7th

i think it's ok.. i haven't done a lot of research on the issue, but i know that certain areas have run lottery type systems where they pick a random person that voted and give them money. i think LA did it and philly did it once

i would assume that there would need to be a lot of oversight in a strict here's 5 dollars if you promise to vote, to make sure its not a defacto "here's five dollars if you promise to vote for X"..

The whole “actual snowflake calling others snowflakes” shtick has been stale for a while.

I think it is illegal, actually - definitely for a "vote for a certain candidate" angle. That is obvious.

I think it's still illegal the other way, but I doubt it'd be enforced. I'd not really like to run amuck of anything annoying though. I will have to get creative. Any and all ideas are welcome, and I'll definitely provide some entertainment here if I end up doing it.

Want to put some money on it?

My guess is you'll never see him again

One time Beto

Made me laugh out loud.

I was playing in a tournament in late October early November 2012 and I was virtually all in with AA vs A6o. Just before the money. Day 2.

I knew my odds were about 94% to hold which were ironically the exact odds of Obama beating Romney at that time.

I rarely pray for anything in life and in cards, but pray I did. And when I pray its usually a trade. Like I'll do X if God does Y.

So I prayed that if I lost that Obama would win. And I lost. Blanking 6 on the flop and then again the turn. And yet.

Cool story, bro