Sweet, let's see if we can get No Rohrabacher, No Nunes, and others out of this.

Hunter is running an ad against Najjar which describes him as a "Mexican muslim millennial." It's funny/sad that this district is one in which describing your opponent as a "millennial" is probably quite effective (the mexican/muslim description is to be expected given the deplorableness of CA 50).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.57c9e434364b

made the WaPo.

Went out canvassing for Ammar on Saturday. This session was much more positive than the last one, three weeks ago. More people were home, we had many more "yes on Ammar" responses, and a LOT of Duncan Hunter hate.

This was in a slightly more affluent section of Escondido than my last trip out. Also, my previous session was about 90% spanish-speakers. This one was the opposite.

One house was a Democrat son living with Republican parents. Dad gave an eye-roll when we said who we were and who we were looking for, but promised to give his son the information.

I go again Sunday...I might have to dig one of my old Air force T-shirts out of the back of my closet so people can see that I'm a veteran.

Anyway, i'm feeling a little better, like the margin will be Hunter winning by only 5% as opposed to 25%

Thankless job that probably won't matter in the end, but I appreciate your efforts, he definitely should not be a congressman in this country.

We may not be comin for that ass. Last two generic ballot polls are within the gerrymander margin.

Marist has Dems 48-42 and YouGov has Dems 45-40.

I noticed that 538 went from 80/20 Dem takeover to 75/25 in abouta (less than a?) week. Maybe white male Kavanaugh rage?

Yep, pretty much.

It's amazing.

GOP has managed to use Merrick Garland, and Brett Kavanaugh to enrage their base for critical elections. They are so much better at the game.

If we take the double L from the Kavanaugh situation I'm going to lose it.

It’s about Roe. I’ve thought for a while now that anti-abortion forces would eventually get the win. Those people are just more passionate and more vocal than pro-choicers.

Anecdotally, I work directly across the street from an abortion clinic. Been there for years. Every single day, when the clinic is open, there are between 1 and 6 people out on the sidewalk, marching, singing, carrying signs and shouting at the women entering the facility. They’re not going to rest until it’s outlawed and that place is shut down. The next time I see even one pro-choice demonstrator out there will be the first. Their side is motivated, ours is complacent.

Hunter up by 2, Rohrbacher tied, Nunes ahead.


https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/st...577837056?s=19

Yeah, thanks for all the hard work you do getting out there in a tough district. My wife and I are two votes for Ammar that weren't in this district last time. simplicitus just posted a pole showing Ammar down by 2%, which is actually pretty mega at this point. Maybe we are looking at a gutshot here as opposed to a one outer.

Interesting methodology.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-m...004-story.html

It seems a bit flawed to me, since certain groups are much less likely to provide an email address. I guess it's a bit more encompassing than calling land lines, but still, seems like it's not as random as it could be.

From what I saw in my canvass 3 weeks ago, this type of poll would definitely miss a lot of minorities in the 50th.

so this lady managed to find approximately 90% of the democrats in Ramona to interview, and 1% of the republicans.

http://www.latimes.com/local/abcaria...009-story.html

In other news, the giant Duncan Hunter sign on Main Street is...gone. Not sure if stolen or the guy came to his senses. Hopefully not stolen, because that just pisses people off, and pissed off people vote (and tell their friends).

Sunday was awesome, I finally got to meet Ammar. With a bit of polish, this kid is going places.

I saw that LA Times article too, I have no idea how she missed all the derps. Probably should have gone to the local church.

I liked the latest mailer sent out, which was basically an entire front-and-back page dedicated to how Hunter told the Navy to go **** themselves because they didn't let him in to some invite (something like that) so he couldn't write off a very expensive trip as a campaign thing.

Yeah, i've told Ammar's comms director that they should be hammering that quote.

As for the giant Hunter sign...it's been replaced by a ramona quilt show sign, so I guess he chose to take it down.

My parents in Ohio saw that LA times article, so it's getting out there somehow. Unlike many of you, my parents were flaming hippies, and have remained so, and raised me liberal...I am grateful every day I don't have to deal with Fox News-brainwashed parents

Gonna do some last minute donations to House candidates. Any suggestions?

My prereqs are:
(1) Not burning money (polls already show D+10 or R+10)
(2) Not a super flush high profile race, like Rouda vs. Rohrabacher.
(3) Candidate is at least mildly progressive. M4A-supporter preferred, but just mainly don't want them to have Republican talking points on their website.

I can understand why ads like this ran 10 years ago but not now.You paid for 30 seconds put something that's somewhat meaningful for anyone and has some oomph.

Sharice Davis. Its a very very close race and i think she will win by less than 1 percent.

Thanks. Sharice Davids is actually the one person I was hoping no one would say. I donated literally about $350 to her primary opponent Brent Welder, who was way more progressive. She's not terrible. I'm just bitter that Emily's List dumped a bunch of money on Davids in the last month of the primary, pushing her to a narrow win.

I live in johnson county and am a volunteer for Sharice Davids campaign.I love her

Anyway, yeah I can understand a lot of people supported Brent Welder ,not just in joco but around the world. It was a pretty crazy primary. But of the things Brent Welder stands for Sharice stands for many if not most of those things too.

Xochitl Torres Small in NM-2. Long held republican seat but the incumbent deplorable is running for governor. She's behind in the polls but seems to be making it close.

https://www.xochforcongress.com/meet-xochitl/

Her opponent has attack ads with scary stuff like "she's going to expand Medicare!" and "she's against the border wall!".

If she wins then NM will likely be completely blue.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/pol...219862165.html

There's a miami house race that was won by hillary by 20 points in 2016 that's a giant tossup fight. (the current house rep is a retiring R, so it's newcomer v newcomer)

Why? Republicans are running a Cuban American Miami spanish speaking lady who's been distancing herself from Trump in a 70% hispanic voting block. Dems are running Donna Shalala, a first time runner who you may remember the name, she was Clinton's Health and Human sec then Miami University president. So yeah, she's got baggage and I don't know if she speaks spanish. Worse, that poll (which was 2 points in favor of the republican) has a full blown trump candidate in that race running as independent siphoning a percent or two.

Some young Republicans thought they could do some ratf*cking and went to the Democrats in AZ 01 and offered to volunteer and donate money under the organization name of the Communist Party and specifically asked for a recept. When they were told they would get an emailed receipt and not a physical one they got upset and scratched out the email address and put another address in there (presumably they were going to put a fake address in and count on a physical receipt and had to put in a real address in when the realized they werent getting a physical copy).

So the campaign got suspicious and followed the kids back to the Young Republicans group on the local campus. The campaign then went to the local GOP organization where the kids were volunteering and returned the money.

After giving Devin Nunes eight straight endorsements, the Fresno Bee endorses his opponent

Not like this moves the needle or makes the district competitive, but it's pretty funny