Excellent thread. I'm in the aforementioned CA 50th, home of Duncan Hunter and his pet rabbit. I've done two volunteer sessions for Ammar Campa-Najjar already, and will go out canvassing again on Saturday.

I wish I didn't feel like this district was a lost cause, but we don't call this area Calabama for nothing. I think the race will be closer than predicted, mainly because Hunter is doing basically zero campaigning (he's never really had to. The first time he won because half the senile retiree population of Temecula and Alpine thought they were still voting for his father) and hiding from debate invitations and town halls.

However, he'll still win, which is fine in the eyes of the republicans here, since they have Darrell Issa waiting in the wings to swoop into a new home in San Marcos (can't live in Escondido or Temecula, not high-class enough) and handily win the special election that will be required when Hunter is convicted and sent to lounge in white-collar prison for 6 months.

I'll be honest, I didn't vote for Ammar in the primary because I'm a realist, and I knew that the white former Navy SEAL who was running as a "democrat" would be the only shot we'd have in this district to flip the seat. But he didn't win, Ammar did, so now I have my yard sign proudly displayed, my donation money sent, and a few hours on the odd saturdays that i don't have to work dedicated to getting out the vote.

https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/stat...55139333369858

https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/stat...91034371792897

This.

Well, look at it this way: of the Democrats who voted in the district primary...
- 48% voted for Campa-Najjar
- 36% voted for the former SEAL
- the rest voted for some other dude

I think that's making a strong statement about who the Ds in that district want to represent them. I certainly understand the "vote for the safe guy, maybe now that Hunter is under indictment some of the Rs who feel disgusted with him will cross over" kind of sentiment...but expecting Rs to do that in 2016, with Trump, failed spectacularly, so why would it be any different here? Deplorables gonna deplorable, might as well go with someone that liberals can get excited about.

Thanks for helping with his campaign, we all really really hope it will pay off in November.

i just moved, didn't realize i'm now a proud Ted Lieu constituent

probably will go down and try to help out Rouda

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/sta...17607079505920

Brat is the deplorable who primaried Eric Cantor back in the day

One of the Dem women running in FL literally died RIP RIP

Illinois


All the chicago ones are rated either lock dem or pretty much dem so we'll take a look at some of the closer races

Illinois 6th Peter J Roskam (R) incumbent
vs
Sean Casten (D)

Current rating +1 point R. This area is typically 59-41 R. Roskam is currently chairman of the tax committee in the house so he's got the people who ***** about taxes vote locked up. He beat current senator Duckworth by 2 points in 2006. He's a loyal derp (was on benghazi committee, was fourth in line in the house for awhile at one point) but hasn't said any of the bat**** insane stuff outloud. (other than the standard stuff everyone else is)

His opponent is a science/engineer dude, so while 2p2 would give him points for that, it's gonna be -5 right off the bat for being a nerd in that district. And that's all I got on that guy.

Too close to call.

Illinois 12th. East St.Louis and a couple other towns and full blown deplorable world with the bonus of a green party candidate here to **** it all up. Mike Bost (R) is your incumbent, this is a R +13.3 according to 538 but also he's only up 2.7 points which he'll probably win by less votes than the green guy gets. The only thing I know about Bost is checking his twitter account where he just praised amazon for good paying jobs. Good luck running on that.

His opponent is running on bailing out pensions and other left stuff here but he's gonna be somewhere in the center. Best you can get there I'd take it.

Illinois 13th typically R+7.7 Your incumbent is Rodney Davis. Best known for beating a former miss america with a harvard JD (why are they ALWAYS republicans). Guy's a trump toad. 538 has the incumbent as +3 point fav. The University of Illinois is in this district so it's literally down to how many college kids actually bother to vote vs the rest of it, which is trumpland. He is pro weed though, which might be the difference in the end. (multiple universities are in that district actually)

Illinois 14th. The first part west of chicago area that people don't live. Another usual R 59/41 is just 3 points for R somehow. Incumbent is an evangelical investment advisor. Man do you get any more grifting than that? He's also on the science committee which I assume for republicans is entirely made up of trolls. Opponent is a black lady who served in the Obama administration. Well gl with that.

It's 11-3 lock D to R, rest I've listed above are slight favorite R and currently held by R's.

The DCCC is running ads in Rohrbacher's district that complain about him having taken too many trips in Congress. The ads are so generic that they probably just change the voice over and run them in districts all over the country, and they suck. The guy is a walking five alarm scandal, and they run some generic BS.

Compared to these ads from noob candidates that kill it, it's just sad. I don't know TX, or that area of TX, but I bet that lady's ad works there. Hope it gets seen.

The problem with running thirty second bits of truth about someone like Rohrabacher is that to uninformed people it just comes across as outlandish conspiracy theory.

Cards Against Humanity joining The Onion, Jim Carrey, and Michael Avenatti as the last bastions of the republic.

https://www.cardsagainsthumanityhackstheelection.com/

Just play quotes of his--he has to have a **** ton of awful ones. Yeah HE TAKES TOO MANY TRIPS is not gonna move a needle and a waste of money.

get the clip of him on Who is America talking up guns for 6 year olds

Here's the ad, with a whole 775 online views.

savvy. this is running on Fox.

Man, if that guys name wasn’t obviously Muslim I think he would win. But white olds ain’t pulling that lever.

the tagline that his grandfather (who died years before he was born) was a terrorist also doesnt help him with those same olds.

Yeah I am in the district, he has no chance. He's sending out mailers similar to that TV ad which are pretty good also, but this district has a super high derp population that 1) thinks all attacks of Republicans are a Soros conspiracy or 2) don't care if who they vote for is a child molester or axe murderer, as long as there is an R next to his name, especially given the other dude's name sounds like an immigrant terrorist.

All true. and what i've been saying since the primary, but it's who dems in this district chose. Oh, and he's not a Muslim...not that it matters.

Yeah, unfortunately Joe Bob in Ramona thinks a name like that essentially signs you up for Al Qaeda. I think best hope is not really that Najjar gets enough turn out the vote, I don't think there's enough libs here to make the difference, but maybe the deplorables stay home in enough numbers because it's just a midterm and Hunter is probably annoying to some of them to give Najjar a shot.

Lol, you're right about Ramona, though there are a few blue folks up here. We moved here for the cheap houses, but man, if I had known I was moving to Alabama West, I might have chosen something else.

My sign hasn't been stolen or defaced yet, so we'll see.

California voter registration is at record levels

Looking at past data from the Secretary of State's website:
- overall registration is up, compared to 2014, from 17.8 million (73% of eligible voters) to 19.1 million (76%)
- registered Ds grew by 600k
- registered Rs dropped by ~350k