On Tuesday, November the 6th in the year of our Lord two thousand and eighteen, all 435 seats in the United States House of Represenatives will be decided by a farcical popularity contest known as a midterm election. Soon after, Americans will have the answer to this burning question:

Who will take up the Speaker's gavel from Retirin' Paul Ryan in 2019? Will it be Tea Party ****head and fondler fan, Jim Jordan? Or perhaps the far left radical communist, Nancy Pelosi?

The current seat count in the House is 194 D, so that a net gain of 24 seats in November will flip the chamber to the Democrats. Various models have been constructed to determine how likely of a proposition this is, with most currently coming down around 75%. To help you understand this figure, it is as if the Dems are all-in preflop holding AKs to the GOP's A7o.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/house/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...-mid-term-race
https://www.thecrosstab.com/project/...erms-forecast/

D incumbents are nearly all rated safe this cycle, and about 60 seats in total are considered competitive.

*POINTS OF INTEREST*
Various Republican villains face nontrivial challenges.

CA-50:
Criminal Congressman Duncan Hunter Jr, who used hundreds of thousands of tax payer dollars to fund family expenses, hookers, and blow, faces progressive Justice Democrat and handsome devil Ammar Campa-Najjar.

FiveThirtyEight gives Campa-Najjar a small, but not insignificant, one in six chance of unseating the incumbent. Campa-Najjar's chances may be dampened however by the Republican campaign to (surprise!) tie the Muslim candidate to terrorism.

NY-27 and MT-AL:
Chris Collins - he of the flagrant insider trading on the WH lawn - and Greg Gianforte - he of the body slammed reporter - both face one-in-five-shot challengers. The Democrat in MT is actually up six in the only poll of the district.

(Pathetic loser Ben Jacobs, a Guardian reporter who declined to press charges after then-candidate Gianforte dropped a beatdown on his nerdy ass)

CA-48:
The big one. It'sHappening.gif. M4A-supporting Democratic candidate Harley Rouda is currently favored to unseat NRA shill and Putin's favorite Congressman Dana Rohrabacher.

Rohrabacher's star rose recently after appearing on Sacha Baron Cohen's Who Is America?, where he endorsed a "Kinderguardians" program to arm toddlers.


(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkXeMoBPSDk, jump to 8:30)

KS:
It looks like there's a not insignificant, probably 10%+, chance Kansas could have 3/4 districts turn blue for 2019. There is also a 40%ish Kansas goes 4/4 red. It all depends on the magnitude of the wave. Should be a good one to watch on election night.

The Failing New York Times:
Is live polling competitive districts and publishing the results in progress.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ons-polls.html

Hey Ladies!:
Some great progressive ladies have won their primaries and are virtual locks to win in November. These include Ayanna Pressley (MA-7) and - for maximum GOP triggerage - the first two Muslim prospective Congresswomen, Ilhan Omar (MN-5) and Rashida Tlaib (MI-13). Even if election day goes badly for the Democrats, we're at least guaranteed some major bright spots and hope for the future .

Ohio has exactly one competitive district.

Despite the state being almost exactly 50/50, the Ohio House is 67% Republican.

Democracy!

Looking forward to the last national election in our failing democracy. Hopefully we can put up a bit of a fight and go down with some dignity.

MN-3 should flip D. Erik Paulsen has been in for a while, but is trailing in polls to Dean Phillips (Phillips Distillery and Dear Abbie fame). District is a mix of everything.

District went for HRC in 2016 and rage has been built over the fact Paulsen did not hold an in-person town hall for like 7 years. Look up Phillips' Big Foot ad.

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MN-5 easy D hold.

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MN-1 no idea.

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MN-2 probably flipping D

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MN-4 Staying D
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MN-6

Staying R. Michelle B's old seat. Guy running against Tom Emmer has no shot.

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Collin Peterson should cruise to victory in MN-7. It's crazy that he still represents a R-12 district as a Dem.

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MN-8 is the real nail biter.

xposting from the Pres thread, on Paul Gosar (AZ-4)

lol dat ratio.

great OP. we needed this thread

VAMOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Are Gosar's 6 angry democrats part of the same angry democrats Trump is always bitching about?

subscribed

definitely recommend the failing new york times link in OP, with in-depth data on every poll they've done for the house.

The one Iowa poll in that link is pretty wild - D 52, incumbent R 37 (!).

I present to you all a guide to the great state of CALIFORNIA and important House battles here. Currently, 39 of California's 53 representatives are Democrats, and 14 are Republicans.

There are 5 districts Cook rates as Safe Republican: CA-01 in the rural northeast corner, represented by Doug LaMalfa; CA-08 in the mountain/desert area southeast of the Sierras, which is one of 4 districts in the country per Ballotpedia to not have a Democrat running (two Republicans beat all three Democrats running in the jungle primary, but it's safe R anyway); CA-22, centered in the deplorable-heavy Central Valley and represented by Devin Nunes; CA-23, centered in deplorable-heavy Bakersfield, home to both a recent shooting and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy; and, lastly, CA-42, centered around Riverside (who lives in Riverside??), represented by Ken Calvert.


With that out of the way, here are your BATTLEGROUND districts.

Lean Democratic

CA-49, saying GOODBYE to Darrell Issa
Clinton 51, Trump 43



A weird district, with a mix of both southern Orange County and northern San Diego County, split in half by Camp Pendleton, a huge Marine Corps base. Darrell Issa was very nearly taken out in 2016, beating challenger Doug Applegate by less than 2,000 votes, and in 2018 he's seen the writing on the wall and announced his retirement long ago.

Applegate ran again, but the Democrat to emerge from a widely contested primary was Mike Levin, an attorney.


Toss Up

CA-10, currently represented by Jeff Denham
Clinton 49, Trump 46



A widely rural Central Valley district centered on Modesto, this place must be less deplorable than the Fresno area because Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, appears to actually have a chance to win it. His platform is all over the map, he says he wants to work across the aisle but is also pro-M4A.

Beat: apparently CPHoya and I share our alma mater with deplorable Denham.


CA-25, currently represented by Steve Knight
Clinton 50, Trump 44



This district north of LA winds across a few disparate areas - Simi Valley, the Santa Clarita Valley, and the Antelope Valley cities of Lancaster and Palmdale which tbh feel like an entire world away (unlike the other areas of this district) from LA if you've ever driven through them. Knight's opponent, Katie Hill, is an executive director of a homelessness nonprofit and has raised over $2 million. And, come on, this seems like a pretty easy choice:




CA-39, saying GOODBYE to Ed Royce
Clinton 52, Trump 43



This district straddles northern Orange County and southeastern LA County, and like Darrell Issa, Ed Royce peaced the **** out when he figured out what was coming this year.

Gil Cisneros, a former Republican and veteran turned lottery winner, somehow emerged from a crowded field with better candidates to get the D nomination. His opponent is Young Kim, a former Royce staffer who seems like a weird choice to continue his legacy in a year where he retired expecting to get slammed. Cisneros has raised $5m but notably does not appear on the coveted Obama list of endorsements for tight CA races.


CA-45, currently represented by Mimi Walters
Clinton 50, Trump 44



This is a rapidly changing district, as Santa Ana becomes drastically more Hispanic in contrast with other traditionally conservative and wealthy areas of Orange County. Walters is being taken on by Katie Porter, a law professor at UC Irvine. They've both raised $2-3m and polls show a tight race.


CA-48, currently represented by Dana "paid by Putin" Rohrabacher
Clinton 48, Trump 46



Some similar demographic trends to CA-45 above, but also with the more famous and hyper-wealthy areas of Orange County in this district like Laguna Beach. His opponent is businessman Harley Rouda, who's raised over $3m.


Lean Republican

CA-50, currently represented by Cool Guy Vaping Congressman Duncan Hunter
Trump 55, Clinton 40



This one wasn't really on the map, having been represented by the Hunter dynasty (both the current Duncan Hunter and his father, also Duncan Hunter) for decades, until indictments came down showing that Hunter treats his campaign donations like a piggy bank for family trips to Italy. As mentioned in the OP, his handsome progressive opponent is Ammar Campa-Najjar, who has his work cut out for him in a district that borders Issa's to the west, but does not border the ocean and thus is that much more deplorable.


Likely Republican

CA-04, currently represented by Tom McClintock
Trump 54, Clinton 39



A huge district geographically, covering Lake Tahoe and the Sierras all the way down through Yosemite and Kings Canyon, whose population is mostly centered on Sacramento suburbs. His opponent is Jessica Morse, who describes herself as a 5th-generation Northern Californian who worked as a national security strategist. Trying to find more about her led me to her campaign website which has some one of the most bland, nondescript issues pages I've ever seen, but maybe being perfectly milquetoast is just what this district needs? idk, probably not. Morse is the other candidate in these 9 contested seats to not get an Obama endorsement.


CA-21, currently represented by David Valadao
Clinton 55, Trump 40



A very rural Central Valley district, whose largest city is Hanford (population 55k). The district has a cook PVI of D+5, I guess owing to it being 71% Hispanic, but Valadao's opponent is a businessman who doesn't live in the district (he elected to run in CA-21 instead of against Josh Harder in CA-10, which was one of the "oh **** are Dems gonna **** themselves in the jungle primary" districts) and is not regarded as a strong candidate to beat Valadao. We'll have to see if the large anti-Trump current this district demonstrated in 2016 is enough to oust Valadao on its own.

Goofy,

Awesome post. Thanks.

I present to you all a guide to the great state of TENNESSEE and important House battles here. Currently, 7 of Tennessee's 9 representatives are Republicans, and 2 are Democrats.

With that out of the way, here are your BATTLEGROUND districts.

LIKELY D

none

LEAN D

none

TOSS UP

none

LEAN R

none

LIKELY R

none

All nine districts are > 99.9% to hold, except for the 4th, which is 99.4%.

Great post, goofy. Solid OP too. LOL pvn and LOL Tennessee.

I don't have much to contribute from my state. Peter Welch will still be my representative.

Seems like the GOP here really kinda screwed up, if the districts are that resilient in a blue wave situation they probably could have been more aggressive and given themselves a better chance at the two blue seats if things even tilted slightly red.

I have been waiting all day for somebody to post something I can use to make a "Gosar the Gosarian" joke and you're all failing me!

Also I'm surprised that Tennessee has 9 congressional districts. Why the **** do so many people live there?

+1 Goofy.

For comparison, Cook rates 37 of the 39 California D seats as safe, and the other 2 as Likely D:

CA-07 (Elk Grove, Rancho Cordova, Folsom)

3 term incumbent Ami Bera has never won with more than 52% of the vote, but should hold on against the weakest of his challengers to date in this Clinton 52, Trump 41 district.

CA-16 (1/2 of Fresno, Merced, Madera)

Portuguese-American farmers seem to have a monopoly on Southern San Joaquin Valley congressional seats, including 7 term incumbent Jim Costa. He survived a scare in the low turnout midterms of 2014, but Hillary won here by 21 points, so I don't see how Costa loses here.

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RCP also lists CA-24 (Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Paso Robles) as Likely D, but again, this is a Clinton +20 district, incumbent Salud Carbajal shouldn't need to break much of a sweat.

And I'll be keeping an eye on CA-26 (Thousand Oaks, Ventura, Oxnard), where Antonio Sabato Jr is running on the deplorable ticket, but should come in 2nd place comfortably.

The south is the most stubborn place on the planet. There is no event that could release them from the Rs tip. That’s why confederate soldiers were called Tar Heels during the civil war, they didn’t move when being attacked . ( maybe not optimal )

Nashville is possibly the second hippest City in the south behind Charleston . The rest of the state is full of fake Jesus people who preach , preach, preach but bang a traitor park Dolly Parton knockoff outside of their marriage . They also think Tennessee is a relevant cfb team who can win the NC.

Kentucky outlook



1. LOCK Rep
2. LOCK Rep
3. LOCK Dem
4. LOCK Rep
5. LOCK Rep

****er has been there for 37 years. Even though Eastern Kentucky is an absolute ****hole they keep voting him. They even name highways after him.

6. Hey an actual race. Lex will go blue. Every other county likely going red. Just depends on margins.

Democrat candidate trying to keep it positive. Rep candidate throwing every piece of **** negative ad he can throw against the wall and hopes it sticks. Sadly a TOSS UP

Internal RNC Poll: Complacent Trump Voters May Cost GOP Control of Congress

A private survey conducted for the Republican National Committee and obtained by Bloomberg Businessweek contains alarming news for Republicans hoping to hold on to control of Congress in November: Most Trump supporters don’t believe there’s a threat that Democrats will win back the House. President Trump’s boasts that a “red wave” could increase Republican majorities appear to have lulled GOP voters into complacency, raising the question of whether they’ll turn up at the polls.

...

Fully half of self-identified Republicans don’t believe Democrats are likely to win back the House. And within that group, 57 percent of people who describe themselves as strong Trump supporters don’t believe Democrats have a chance (37 percent believe they do).

...

The poll contains more worrisome news for Republicans: A generic congressional ballot shows the Democratic candidate leading the Republican by 9 points. Historically, generic ballot surveys have correlated closely with election outcomes. The RNC study also finds “a wide gender gap and generation gap,” with the Democrat favored by women of all ages and also by men aged 18-44. Only men older than 45 preferred the Republican candidate, by a 15-point margin.

...

“Republicans don’t have a ‘base problem,’ ” the report concludes. “Those voters who strongly approve of the President and those who support both his policies and leadership style are genuinely passionate about voting in the election and are voting GOP lock, stock and barrel.”

The problem for party leaders is that these voters constitute only a quarter of the electorate and are “dwarfed by the 44% of voters who strongly disapprove of the President and are just as committed to DEM candidates and voting in November.”

Report from MD:

We are currently 7 D, 1 R. The most vulnerable seat is one of the D seats, but still likely to remain 7-1 after the election. There is no incumbent in that seat, the D primary winner is a rich dude that has already spent $25M+ of his own money between this race and the primary he lost in 2016. The district also consists of the entire western mountainous part of the state, basically WV. It's only D because it's been gerrymandered with enough DC suburbs. The 1 R district is anchored on the Eastern Shore, cut off from all of the major population centers (DC, Baltimore, Annapolis) but also wraps around to pack some additional Republicans in from select Baltimore suburbs. It's not flipping. The rest of the districts are safely gerrymandered in the Democrats' favor.

Time to seek out that 57% that doesn’t think the dems can win and monetize their ignorance .

Nice OP and some very good posts. I'm in Rohrbacher's district and grew up in Ed Royce's. I think Rohrbacher is likely out, but I like the odds of an Asian republican over the lottery winner for Royce's seat. Suspect the district is 15-20% Asian. Than again, not that many olds in Royce's district because the avg house is over $500k and many have cashed out and moved to Riverside or Az and such.