2017 "Tax Reform": They'll Screw This Up Too, Right? - Page 67 - Politics and Economics

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2017 "Tax Reform": They'll Screw This Up Too, Right?

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12-08-2017 , 02:12 PM

#1651

raradevils

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 8,189

Quote:

Originally Posted by formula72

Were you a fan of Mash in the 70s?

Wasn't everyone that was alive? It's not like we had many other choices at the time.

12-08-2017 , 02:59 PM

#1652

estefaniocurry

adept

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 1,165

Alan Alda. I'd be amazed if that guy wasn't at least as creepy as Dustin Hoffman.

12-09-2017 , 03:24 AM

#1653

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,075

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

A drum I've been beating for like the past decade is that we, as a country, need to understand that meritocracy is an ideal but not what we have, and everyone is just people. And people are all, without exception, extremely dumb.

Fancy degrees, millions of dollars, important elected positions... still just regular folks.

An article that perhaps gives you mixed emotions

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/03/o...nequality.html

12-10-2017 , 10:15 PM

#1654

Huehuecoyotl

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 29,257

Quote:

In a new paper, Surachai Khitatrakun, Aaron Krupkin, and I address the distributional effects of these plans, including alternative ways of paying for the costs of tax cuts. Our central finding: If you consider plausible ways of financing either the House or the Senate bill, most low-and middle-income households would eventually end up worse off than if the bill did not become law. In other words, they would lose more from inevitable future spending cuts or tax hikes necessary to eventually offset the costs of the tax bill than they would gain from the tax cuts themselves.

Quote:

Note that alternatives we did not analyze could be even more regressive. Republican leaders have recently suggested they will turn to cutting welfare and entitlements once a tax bill is complete. If this strategy is followed, the effects of the tax cuts plus their financing would be even more regressive than the alternatives we reviewed.

Our estimates do not account for potential economic growth effects because several recent studies suggest that such effects would be relatively small. Incorporating small growth effects would not change the basic conclusions. Nor do we include the effects of the Senate bill’s proposed repeal of the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate. If we included that item, the net effect of the TCJA would be even more regressive.

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvo...s-and-jobs-act

12-11-2017 , 04:11 PM

#1655

Huehuecoyotl

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 29,257

In unshocking news

Quote:

For months now, top leaders in the Trump administration have been promising to produce a dynamic economic analysis that shows the growth-boosting powers of its tax plan are so impressive that they will negate any revenue loss. But the report — published by an agency overseen by Trump appointees and using methods Republicans say they favor — found that they have to assume large numbers of additional policy changes to get the growth they’ve promised.

Dozens of Republican Senators and members of Congress profess to believe that some such analysis is out there somewhere, and that it justifies their decision to ignore Joint Committee on Taxation findings that the plan would, in fact, add somewhere between $1 and $1.5 trillion to the deficit.

Instead of a dynamic analysis showing that the tax plan would boost annual economic growth by the 0.7 percentage points they need, they have an analysis claiming that if you passed that tax plan and did a bunch of other stuff you will get the growth

Quote:

Two points on this.

One is that the budget proposal in question involved draconian spending cuts on a huge range of programs — everything from the Appalachian Regional Commission to Meals on Wheels to nutritional assistance for low-income pregnant women gets the axe. So if you want to “dynamically” score the growth benefits of this kind of thing, you also ought to dynamically update the distributional accounts. Treasury is basically saying that if you pay for a corporate tax cut by taking money away from the needy, your GDP will grow.

Quote:

The second point is that even House Republicans pronounced Trump’s budget proposal dead on arrival when he released it. The budget resolution congressional Republicans passed looks totally different from Trump’s proposal, and the negotiations over appropriations bills do not envision Trump’s proposals being enacted.

The administration’s analysis claims, basically, that the tax cuts would pay for themselves if and only if they are paired with a bunch of other ideas congress already rejected.

So there’s the story. Both JCT and Treasury are, at this point, run by Republicans and using the methods Republicans say they favor. According to those methods, the tax plan will not achieve what the tax plan’s political advocates say it will achieve. And by other, more skeptical methods, things look even worse.

https://www.vox.com/2017/12/11/16761...c-analysis-tax

All of this is because Republicans can't really follow through or even admit the logical conclusion of their convictions, that the last 100 years has been morally terrible and economically bad and the pre liberal, laisee faire 1890-1920s were the absolute morally best economic system. It really does rely on Republicans telling people that they don't deserve warm meals or retirement or good food, all for the betterment of society.

12-11-2017 , 08:20 PM

#1656

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

An article that perhaps gives you mixed emotions

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/03/o...nequality.html

I'd say a lot of that is cultural rather than a matter of "opportunity" per se. I had a good upbringing in general, but my dad had a pretty unremarkable career, staying as a mid-level technical officer for a government department. Whenever any discussion happened of what I would do in life, it was always absolutely assumed that I would be a wage earner. The idea that I might invent things, or start a company, or otherwise try to create wealth myself was never presented to me and I never considered it until later in life. It's hard to overstate how much what is modelled to you affects your perception of your options in life.

12-11-2017 , 10:05 PM

#1657

riddle777

adept

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 708

The president of my company sent out an email asking us to email our representatives regarding to slashing of the PTC credits. That makes me feel real comfortable. ****ing GOP changes the rules in the middle of the game. Hopefully the Senators won’t budge on it. Wind is so big in Iowa and Texas that I have a hard time believing it passes.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

12-11-2017 , 10:54 PM

#1658

Huehuecoyotl

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 29,257

The poster child for the idea that the estate tax hits ranchers told her story in 2015.

Quote:

On April 16, 2015, Noem stepped onto the floor of the House and described how her father was killed on March 10, 1994 in a tragic accident on their family farm. Noem, who was a 21-year old student at the time, recounted:

It wasn’t very long after he was killed that we got a bill in the mail from the IRS that said we owed them money because we had a tragedy that happened to our family … We could either sell land that had been in our family for generations or we could take out a loan. So I choose to take out a loan but it took us 10 years to pay off that loan to pay the federal government those death taxes. It is one of the main reasons I got involved in government and politics was because I didn’t understand how bureaucrats and politicians in Washington DC could make a law that says when a tragedy hits a family they somehow are owed something from that family business.

The problem is her story doesn't match with what the tax code says

Quote:

There are several important questions raised by Noem’s account. First, the estate tax has had a 100% marital deduction since 1982. In other words, upon the death of Noem’s father, all the family assets could have flowed to her mother without being subject to the estate tax. Noem’s parents were married and her mother, Corinne Arnold, is still alive today.

“It’s hard to believe the estate of a farmer who died in 1994 and was survived by his spouse was subject to tax,” said Robert Lord, a Phoenix tax attorney with an expertise in estate tax law. “It easily could have been deferred. That would have been a no-brainer.”

Another oddity in Noem’s story is that the IRS doesn’t send a bill for an estate tax without a tax filing. In 1994, families had nine months to file a return with the option of filing a six-month extension. The conservative canard that the taxman shows up at the funeral is emotionally gripping, but simply false. The law at the time allowed farms to defer estate taxes for up to five years.

In the event that the Arnold family did owe taxes, the IRS had flexible installment plan at an interest rate lower than any lender. There would have been no need to get a loan from a third-party. But this doesn’t answer the fundamental question: Why did they pay any tax?

“It’s very unclear they would have been subject to the estate tax given the law at the time,” said Lord. “But if she did pay a big estate tax bill. she should elaborate on the unusual circumstances.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...umn/930472001/

12-12-2017 , 05:19 PM

#1659

spidercrab

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 3,206

I think this thing's going to pass. It looks like they finally realized the obvious thing to do is to just slightly increase the corporate rate to make it easier to shove all the other stuff through without killing the Senate's deficit cap.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...publican-says/

I think if they had insisted on the 20%, it would have had a much harder time.

12-12-2017 , 05:33 PM

#1660

hacksaw JD

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 209

was Rand Paul's tweet today saying he promised to not vote to raise the deficit and could not vote on "any spending bill" that would increase the deficit mean anything? i assume he is not referring to the tax bill since it's not a "spending" bill

12-13-2017 , 12:03 PM

#1661

NhlNut

KANGZ

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 18,186

Mother lives in an assisted living community. This was in the weekly bulletin from the community CEO:

I don't know if it's completely correct, but wow.

12-13-2017 , 12:08 PM

#1662

ecriture d'adulte

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 5,916

At first I wondered why your mother’s assisted living community is sending her redacted memos.

12-13-2017 , 12:10 PM

#1663

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

Quote:

Originally Posted by NhlNut

Mother lives in an assisted living community. This was in the weekly bulletin from the community CEO:

I don't know if it's completely correct, but wow.

With the caveat that with the bill in conference, anything can change on a moment's notice, that letter is largely correct from everything we know. Some of those hits may be relaxed, but Republicans do want to fund their corporate tax cuts by making changes like those.

12-13-2017 , 01:03 PM

#1664

spidercrab

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 3,206

sigh

I mean, I guess this isn't terribly informative - there's always been an agreement in principle that they want to lower corporate rates and top marginal rates. But it seems like they're going to get something through.

12-13-2017 , 02:30 PM

#1665

UsedToBeGood

adept

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 882

The latest agreement appears to increase corp tax to 21% so they can lower the upper tier individual rates to 37%. Funny thing about that is Rubio's proposal to increase the child tax credit would have increased corp tax to 21% to pay the credit, but was shot down because it was "anti-growth." But it's totally cool to do if wealthy dudes catch a break.

12-13-2017 , 02:36 PM

#1666

j555

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,325

Rubio and Lee could sink the bill. Why don't they fight harder for what they want?

12-13-2017 , 02:38 PM

#1667

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,667

Quote:

Originally Posted by j555

Rubio and Lee could sink the bill. Why don't they fight harder for what they want?

"If your life depends on Marco Rubio having a spine, you're already dead"

12-13-2017 , 03:19 PM

#1668

+rep_lol

banned

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 14,900

*little marco

12-13-2017 , 03:52 PM

#1669

StimAbuser

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 8,822

Trump veto's bill and demands 20% ONE TIME lol

12-13-2017 , 04:07 PM

#1670

stinkubus

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 4,422

Trump's veto would pretty much ensure a consolidated effort to primary him in 2020.

12-13-2017 , 04:15 PM

#1671

StimAbuser

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 8,822

He's making a speech on tax reform currently. He's introducing families who say the tax bill is helping them.

12-13-2017 , 04:21 PM

#1672

OneEyedPoker

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 569

Did the Koch family come up yet?

12-13-2017 , 04:59 PM

#1673

Loki

binary duo

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 12,772

No chance trump vetos anything put in front of him by a person with an R by their name

Dude is desperate for anything he can point to as having accomplished actual work.

12-13-2017 , 06:49 PM

#1674

riddle777

adept

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 708

Has anyone read anything regarding BEAT and Wind PTC in the combined bill? Can't find anything on Google.

Thanks!

12-13-2017 , 09:06 PM

#1675

dth123451

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 15,502

This compromise bill seems like a lock to add way more than $1.5 trillion to the debt over 10 years. Does it have to be scored before they can pass it?

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