Quote:
Originally Posted by EfromPegTown
If Clinton wins a state, she's also more likely to win the neighbouring state, making her chances at a crushing defeat all that much higher.
Correct, but it doesn't increase her chances of winning, just of how she wins. Nate has mentioned that the chances of a Hil blowout are about equal to the chances of a small Trump win. As he sees it right now, there's a 25% chance of Trump winning, with pretty much all of that being a close win and virtually 0% of that being a Trump blowout. Then of the 75% chance of Hil winning, probably 50% is close/substantial win, and 25% blowout.
Also, to your point about it working the other way, yes, you're correct, but with her chances for each state already being at 90%, her scooping both states is much closer to what the odds predict so it really wouldn't be an outlier event. I guess what I'm saying is that him winning both states at 10% each shouldn't be looked at the 1/100 chance, but actually closer to just the 10% chance of winning one state. And because of that, it gives him mroe win equity for the whole election.