For the election? Better than 1/3 for Clinton. Do you want to bet against me, you on Trump winning?

You keep saying this but you keep on failing to provide the part where he says well informed and strategic things.

http://nymag.com/selectall/2016/10/m...t-a-crank.html

Occam's razor handles Thiel pretty easily, he's a small minded petty and insecure bigot. That principle explains all of his actions. Peter Thiel is only an engima if you start with the premise that he's smart and then try to figure out how a smart guy could oppose women's suffrage, buy into crankish immortality schemes, support Donald Trump, engage in bizarre vendettas against media outlets, and so forth. If you simply just skip that step and evaluate Thiel holistically, yeah, he's just an idiot. No great mystery.

Thiel is just proof of that adage that poor people are crazy, wealthy people are eccentric.

Greenwald pointed out on Twitter the proper comparison for Thiel after his "single-digit millionaire" comment:

" Bud Light is a **** beer and nothing is going to boost sales at this point
If anything was going to boost sales among the crowd who still hasn't discovered good beer, Seth Rogen and Amy Schumer were absolutely not it.
Out of touch old beer executives trying a desperate stupid idea to make Bud Light cool with millennials again."

Just got back from LV and had dinner with my brother at Cut. He ordered a bud lite at the bar - Irish bartender gives him a look and say "I like bud lite. Drink it when I'm drunk - sobers me up"

MM MD

Nah- he's a real stupid mother****er. You can tell because he just went in front of people and said a bunch of stupid ****ing ****.

Brother, the Hulkster's real wealth comes from all the friendships he's made along the way. No one can put a dollar value on that.

that's actually a very appropriate casting choice

It's real telling that after all the anti-bullying, participation trophy, helicopter parenting bull**** we've produced a generation that has two overlapping subgroups:

1) Has no ****ing self-confidence at all, completely supplicates itself to techbros just because they are wealthy, refuses to try to form opinions of their own. Subfallen is an example but the internet is full of dudes who view Thiel, Musk, etc. as prophets whose every statement shall be regarded as the Holy Word. People who have like, emotional attachments to apps. They cried when Steve Jobs died.


2) Has no fear at all about being transgressive, celebrates offending people and punching down, but evaluates their own feelings as the highest priority. This is Gamergate, MRAs, the alt-right.


We ****ed that up as a culture.

Lol at ordering a Bud Light at Cut.

Where do you see this?

Fivethirtyeight since the Comey statement has increased Trump's chance of winning the election from 13% to 25%

538 is doing what 538 does. it's not particularly good this cycle.

pretty sure 538 was around 18-19% before comey

Um, also SJW's such as yourself and myself. It's very polarized but it's not all bad news.

Where do you see this?

NBC's poll, which has clinton at +6 today, showed no difference in its results from tues-fri vs sat-sun.

Fly, please don't stain Elon with Thiel. Two different worlds. Elon came up doing real science, Theil's just a smart, somewhat gayer Tucker Carlson. America has 3.5M people in the top 1% of intellect. Some get lucky and rich and think it justifies whatever their whims are, but if original thinking leads you to the same place as non-college educated whites 65+ y/o in rural America, you may be doing something wrong.

As far as gamergaters, who seem to be a core group of Trump's younger support, they are the players of games, not the makers.

Is this implying that 538 has been historically bad at forecasting? I didn't think that was the case, but if so, I'm interested in knowing all the reasons they're off. The one thing I'm aware of is that they could be off if the polling is off...bad data in = bad data out.

That said, if polls are at an all time high (per dessin d'enfant), then why isn't that reflected in 538's analysis?

Sometimes 2+2 can be an echo chamber, and lately it seems like people are throwing objectivity out the window and just saying "well obviously Clinton is going to win, because". I mean, I certainly hope so, but I can't see how the latest news cycle has no effect. Seems like a lot of undesirable noise right before the election.

This is right, and that was already up from around 12% from 10 days before that, however it's not evident it's because of the Comey thing.

Basically in post pussy gate tape / first few accusers period, 538 had Trump at 12%

In the "Worse tapes to come" yet nothing / third debate / wikileaks / pre Comey period he went from 12% to 18%, and then he's climbed to 24% over the last 4 days.

The main thing is the NV/NC/FL numbers have been trending to Manicula, and a few the national polls have also tightened a bit.

Well, I'm kinda freaking out, like many, because if Clinton wins by 6 instead of 8 that could allow the GOP to retain the senate.

some straight talk going on here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhWTdnjAxEU

Well, 538 for one. Their projection of her popular vote total is 45.4%, within half a point of her high. RCP has her at 45.6, which is close to her high and hasn't really gone down since Comey.

So we only care about the minorities that are visible? Interesting take.

In a just world the media would be HAMMERING him on this, but that's not where we live, so he gets a pass. Just like the other 9999999 things he's gotten a pass on this election. Sad.

Polls-Only: 24.4% Trump
Polls-Plus: 25.5% Trump

5:10pm EDT

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...d=rrpromo#plus

The comment was accurate.

Musk is clearly smart, his companies do good stuff and all, but the hero worship people have towards him is still creepy. Hero worship is not healthy towards ACTUAL heroes, have some freaking self respect.

Comey is a Republican, therefore he's probably a douche at best and a deplorable at worst.

Not surprised you'd be in here defending him, ikes, since that's been your schtick for many years now, but don't pretend those of us with eyes can't see what's going on.