I hope someone would make a good hitler subtitles video as he tears kellyanne ailes ivanka jr a new one after hearing about a landslide. Whatever happens in the actual election, I will always have that video to watch forever on a loop.

Anyone semi intelligent sees the people trump has hired to run his campaign and is scared of the possibility of Corey Lewandowski, Steve Bannon and others having high level jobs in the government. He has filled his inner circle with plain alt right morons with no history of governing. How could these people adequately run a country? They have run the worst campaign in history. There is no organization, they didn't even get an office open in every state.

I'm on team it's already over, but it would ruin the world economy. Without a doubt in my mind.

Early voting does look good for him in Wisconsin but not good enough to overcome 7 points. That may change when we see the post Comey votes though.

Turns out the Trump pivot after the primary was actually tried, but Trump was too undisciplined to go for any amount of time without the attention on him.


Apparently hyping up the paranoia and crazy talk is Bannon's, the Breitbart guy, idea.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer...inal-days.html

Seeing as how the base of the Republican Party - white males, seem to refuse to assimilate; isn't it fair to conclude that in the next 20 years, the only possible alternative to a civil war would be a scenario where special interests takes the U.S. into a suicidal war vs Russia?

I mean...if glowing world economy predictions with promises of great returns in the stock market haven't worked, what will? It's not like these savage, racist, misogynistic Drumpkins are docile folk either.

theyre also mostly spineless cowards with no guts for a civil war.

God that link is so unreadably formatted and argued that it took me a while to figure out what the argument is in Nevada. It boils down to this; here's a side by side comparison of 2012 and 2016 first week early voting. These numbers are for party registration, so we don't know what people voted, it has to be inferred.

2012:

	Mail	Early	Total	%
Dem	22956	139281	162237	45.3%
GOP	23491	110094	133585	37.3%
Ind	8613	53610	62223	17.4%

2016:

	Mail	Early	Total	%
Dem	15925	131076	147001	44.4%
GOP	17864	101935	119799	36.2%
Ind	8074	55998	64072	19.4%

This shows essentially no change from 2012. Both parties have lost registered voters and turnout is lower across the board, but the numbers are similar.

So he then unskews these affiliations into actual votes, using a poll crosstab showing how many Ds are voting R and vice versa, as well as which way independents are breaking. Unfortunately he uses Axiom, which is a GOP push polling outfit that is not included in RCP or 538 averages. Here's my own unskewing effort of the 2016 numbers using a recent Emerson poll that had Clinton +2, which is roughly the RCP average. (Bonus weirdness: in Emerson's sample there were 0% of Dems either unsure or voting Stein, but 0.2% of registered Republicans were voting Stein).

	Reg Dem	Reg GOP	Ind	Total	%
Total	147001	119799	64072	330872	100.0%
Vote Dem	117748	13657	20375	151780	45.9%
Vote GOP	22197	90808	27935	140940	42.6%
Other	7056	6589	0	13645	4.1%
Undecided	0	8745	15762	24507	7.4%

So a reasonably comfortable lead for Clinton, assuming the undecideds are not breaking very heavily for Trump. Note that this is a pretty generous way to do things, I could have simply noted that party affiliation turnouts are similar to 2012 and that Obama won by nearly 7 points in 2012. The analysis above tries to account for the fact that maybe more Dems/Inds are voting GOP than Reps/Inds are voting Dems, when compared to 2012. The discrepancy between polling numbers and the substantially higher early voting lead indicates this might be the case, but it could also simply be that the Dem GOTV operation is superior.

I hope you enjoyed this edition of Math You Do As A Liberal To Find Out The Actual Answers To Things.

Edit: Just checked the crosstabs of another poll (Marist) and it's broadly similar to Emerson, a bit more pro-Dem. Independents break for Trump and more Dems vote GOP than GOPers vote Dem in both crosstabs, but it's not enough to overcome the discrepancy in affiliations among voters.

Maybe guerilla tactics?

That psycho hanging dudes [for Halloween] on his front lawn wasn't exactly a mouse.

Madison agrees with you but I don't. I think they are assimilating but at a slower rate. Basically Mexicans and Muslims are like the Polish, Jewish , and Eastern Europeans in the 1930's. It just takes time.

The Justice Department has not granted approval for FBI agents to examine the materials, so FBI officials have no idea whether the emails contain sensitive or incriminating information or anything investigators have seen before.

“We do not have a warrant,” a senior law enforcement official told Isikoff. “Discussions are under way [between the FBI and the Justice Department] as to the best way to move forward.”





Lol if accurate

This is great and all but is missing the main point. The FBI is revealing details of its *investigation* and not just the standard things related to HRCs position of Secretary of State. That's not something it does in other circumstances, right?

It's accurate. This is from Comey's letter to the FBI explaining his actions (emphasis mine):

Steve comey woke up one day and said screw it , MAGA!!

You think he fires away if the police knock?

I don't. I think he thinks he will.

I don't think he will

I think that photo has to be a meme. There's no way his house isn't going to get vandalized, and there's no way he isn't aware of that.

Miami? Pfft these guys are great.

Possibly. And, of course, you see: the left hates my free speech wahhh. Not *blasts shotguns at vandals*. Sure, dude could be Zimmerman. More likely he's not. Because: mass violence isn't happening right now. Give them a leader, and the go signal? Absolutely. Then the mass violence.

This depends on what contract work you do, but if a recession hits, people lose their expendable income, your business goes down. You make less money.

Surely this must have been discussed in the thread before, but I'll ask anyway. Has anyone floated the idea that if Hillary wins, she'll serve her four years, and then bow out? Like unless she is awesome, soaring approval ratings, it seems like she will be facing a lot of pressure from the Dems to do just that.

Really is incredible that Clinton's campaign IT team OKd a completely obvious phishing email. I guess she hires just the best people as well.

Yeah, this is kind of my hope. Her health is going to suffer, with the stress of the job how could it not? And even if she does ah-mazing things, people are going to be wishing she fails. I would love for her to find some great politicians who'd have a good chance of winning in 2020.

Bow to who? Someone, as in a candidate, has to primary her. No, she will not step aside. I mean, could she? Sure, it happens. Rarely. It isn't likely, at all.

Well didn't they say he should use the real google link to change the password and enable 2-factor authentication? So like they got it half wrong?