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2016 Presidential Election GAMEDAY THREAD 2016 Presidential Election GAMEDAY THREAD

11-12-2016 , 01:40 PM
Yes, it was and I think you may be missing the point entirely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colin Powell
“Everything HRC touches she kind of screws up with hubris"
Nice read.
11-12-2016 , 01:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar
Just got done watching it (great episode). For some reason, the entire show is on YT (maybe Maher told HBO this one is too important to chop up and just serve up a 1/4 of it on YT), which is never the case.

John Legend at 35:05 breaking down why #NOTMYPRESIDENT is a thing (basically why a % of the country will never accept him as the president).

Bill Maher is discriminating me for being latino as well. I cant watch the video.
11-12-2016 , 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
If the parties realign to the populist right versus the progressive left I am voting the new third party, neocon libertarian Mormon or whatever McMuffin forms.
If parties realign, I'd expect that the realignment would completely destroy the right/left spectrum. My money would be on:
1) Authoritarian/Status-Quo Party: #ImWithHer D loyalists (Max, Wookie, ElliotR types), D & R neocons, Bush-type Rs, bankers, military and "defense" industry types.
2) Alternative Party: Progressive Ds, populist Rs, independents.

I think that this is already slowly happening behind the scenes, but is wildly unlikely to manifest explicitly.
11-12-2016 , 01:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASPoker8
If parties realign, I'd expect that the realignment would completely destroy the right/left spectrum. My money would be on:

Authoritarian/Status-Quo Party: #ImWithHer D party cheerleaders, D & R neocons, Bush-type Rs.

Alternative Party: Progressive Ds, populist Rs

Makes sense. Steve Scmidt had a similar take regarding the parties no longer being split along ideological divide but rather the winners and losers of globalization.
11-12-2016 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
People thought she was lying because her whole presence was a lie. It didn't matter what words she said.
I think there's a lot of truth in this. Every time she spoke, I couldn't stop from thinking of the word "phony," even though I think she really does believe deeply in her convictions. She's just not charismatic, and she tried to be, and failed horribly.
11-12-2016 , 01:59 PM
It does seem like a good time for a new party.

Maybe Apple could try the iParty. Or Elon Musk the Teslacrats. Googletarians.

4Chanicans vs. Tumblrcrats
11-12-2016 , 02:02 PM


At least we can be united behind this righteous protest.
11-12-2016 , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999
It's not a thing.

Because no matter how much they whine or refuse to accept it.

He will still be President.
Of course it's a thing. Of course he will still be president Jan. 20. ldo. That's not the point.

The point is he has ripped the already fragile social fabric of this country for personal gain. People aren't going to forget, dismiss or forgive his actions/rhetoric these past 18 months. 36.3% of the nation ... just talking about minorities here, not even white women were personally insulted by Trump (individually, their sisters, their fathers, their uncle who is a vet, there adopted child, etc.). Many of these people don't feel safe in their country for the first time ever.

The next time you're in a stadium or restaturant or theater look around. POTUS insulted in the cruelest and crudest ways 36 of 100 ppl there. People are taught to respect themselves above all us. How can you respect yourself and Trump at the same time? Cliffnotes: you can't.

I read where there's going to be a Million Women March in D.C. on Jan. 21. I don't remember a million person march the day after a previous POTUS' inauguration. Do you?

The ACLU has received a record amount of online donations since Tuesday. I don't remember this being the case in the organization's 96 year history. Do you?

Trump and his administration are going to be scrutinized, observed, sued, stonewalled, obstructed, confronted, investigated, fact-checked, etc. like no administration before him -- that's just domestically (and that's saying something when you consider how Obama was railroaded by the Rs for the past 8 yrs). Wait until the international participants jump into the fray. dude's ghana probably quit before year 1 is over.
11-12-2016 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayo
I think there's a lot of truth in this. Every time she spoke, I couldn't stop from thinking of the word "phony," even though I think she really does believe deeply in her convictions. She's just not charismatic, and she tried to be, and failed horribly.
My Mom is a lifelong democrat, hater of all things Republican, lover of MSNBC and when she told me that she disliked it every time Hillary tried to get loud and angry and fake passionate, I had pause for concern on how that may be coming across to those who are not as hardcore Dem.
11-12-2016 , 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
To a certain extent I don't disagree but this is re-litigating the primaries. Once she's the candidate after the primaries, I think the personality stuff becomes circular and unpersuasive. By most metrics (trustworthiness an intriguing exception), Hillary was viewed more favorably and more likeable than Trump. Not objectively good, but better than her opponent.

But, I'll admit we might be able to square this: if we view the electorate as two separate entities (e.g., there's very little cross pollination between Clinton voters + potential Clinton voters and Trump voters + potential Trump voters), I can buy a compelling argument that Clinton was more susceptible to the likability question than Trump. I haven't seen it written much yet but Trump's victory to me is just a huge, huge testament to the hardiness of GOP partisanship.

In fact if we view the electorate like that, it means that the disparity in likeability between the two parties is not important. You can have Reagan, a telegenic charismatic actor or Trump, a rage filled buffoon and the GOP's conservative old whites are showing up no matter what. That's the story I take away from this. Don't bother making it about the GOP. You sincerely cannot go negative enough to shake their supporters. Trump seems like it's almost conclusive to that point. He is dangerously unqualified, really just such a drastic departure from Romney and they all showed up and pulled the trigger for him anyway. Didn't matter a bit.

I mean it's incredible in a sense:

John McCain vote total: 59.9 million
Mitt Romney vote total: 60.9 million
Donal Trump vote total: 60.0 million but not done counting, he'll get a few hundred k more by December

Population growth, death, demographic change, yadda yadda. But that's some astounding ****!

Clinton and the Democrats, however, since they skew younger and poorer and rely on less dependable voters, are much more beholden to the vagaries of these personality contests. I'm also veering to some theories, long expressed by academics but not seen much in pop political writing that negative campaigning IS a bulwark for the GOP and far less effective for Democrats not for any specific tactical reasons but just due to the demographic compositions of the base: if your voters are wealthier, older, and dependable, you aren't going to be able to shake them with negativity. If you rely on younger, poorer voters with less confidence in the efficacy of voting and less beholden to the persistence of the status quo, you can absolutely sully their candidate as terrible and ineffective and have it work to depress turnout.

I'm getting a little bored with this conversation but the advice to Democrats might be something like:

- put a high value on charisma, likability. Unfortunate that technocratic competence isn't important and the GOP gets to play by different rules but just accept it as fact that telegenic, charismatic candidates who can reach younger, poorer, less dependable voters on the fringes are a critical quality. And only for Democrats. GOP can play rote "put anywhere from a bland inoffensive white guy to a firebrand moron on the ticket" and as long as there's a tax cut and white grievances somewhere in there, they're good, 60 million are there for them.
- Clinton's strategy to make Trump dangerously unqualified back-fired since Republicans aren't listening, at all. They've got AM radio, they've got Drudge, they've got FNC -- their closed-loop reality. It's almost not even worth talking about them. They're all gone, all of them. They will show up and vote as they always do.
- related, can't count on making boogey men out of the GOP to scare their people to the polls. Trump is also conclusive there. They have to sell themselves and their plans or at least be affable and entertaining, or sell hope. Something. Trump is truly frightening and dangerous, far more than Romney, and 5 million voters just weren't persuaded to bother like they were for Obama.

The point is the GOP is never changing, they got their people, they show up just like that.

In the end these Presidential elections hinge on Democrats finding those fringey people and getting them to the polls. They have to solve it. Whether that's more charismatic, more economic populism, I dunno.

If Biden or generic white male Democrat ran against Trump, the "he's dangerous" line would have worked much better. Persuadeable Republicans were never voting for Hillary b/c she's Hillary.
11-12-2016 , 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
Rural White America: we're suffering here!
Democrats: want some money?
Rural White America: how insulting!
Trump: we'll up-end the world order to employ you in our factories and mines
Rural White America: finally some common sense wisdom
This is a huge issues world-wide, one of the major problems of the 21st century and if we dont understand it and act then trump/brextit is just going to be the beginning of a great deal of pain.

During the Brexit campaign there was a spontaneous hiss of anger when a politican responded to a question about low wages with 'that's why we're raising the minimum wage', and that hiss was from people that overwhelmingly support the minimum wage and support raising it. It's not a contradiction but the reasonable belief that the minimum wage is supposed to be a minimum to protect the most vulnerable workers from exploitation. it's not supposed to be the norm for vast groups of people or become the ceiling on what people can expect to earn.

We have to recognise that the jobs are increasingly going and never coming back. We have to start to tackle the link between working and self-worth while finding ways to distribute all the wealth that no-one is working to create. This is one of the defining problems of our age - we can try to get ahead of it or we can reap the whirlwind and put it back together afterwards.
11-12-2016 , 02:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heroball
If Biden or generic white male Democrat ran against Trump, the "he's dangerous" line would have worked much better. Persuadeable Republicans were never voting for Hillary b/c she's Hillary.
It's pretty clear that "Persuadable Republicans" is not actually a thing. In the end they fell in line like they always do and used whatever post-hoc justifications they needed to explain voting for a man many of them knew wasn't fit to hold the office.
11-12-2016 , 02:23 PM
there just needs to be a candidate who will not manipulate and lie to voters and who will stand behind principles that he genuinely think that are good for the country

very simple but impossible
11-12-2016 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar
That's your interpretation. The majority of ppl who interpret and analyze the exit poll data for a living, side with me.

Both played a factor. The critical factor was the shift in the non college educated white voter, especially in the Upper Midwest. Again, djt won these voters by a margin 50% greater than Romney. 50%.

edit: as microbet mentioned, the lower black turnout was already baked into the models.
Look at the counties that flipped to R from D in last election. People wondered why Trump made visits to safe D states right before election. Looks like he was on to something no one else was.

http://www.cnbc.com/heres-a-map-of-t...rom-democrats/
11-12-2016 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jt217
If Trump managed to put together a bunch of government regulations that ends up giving these unemployable midwesterners make-work jobs with livable wages, that's literally a government hand-out, right?


Big psychological difference between government creating conditions that allow for new jobs (empowering handout) vs. giving people cash (pity-driven handout).

If Trump can implement FDR-style programs while not ****ing up anything big he might win by 10 points in 2020.
11-12-2016 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
This is a huge issues world-wide, one of the major problems of the 21st century and if we dont understand it and act then trump/brextit is just going to be the beginning of a great deal of pain.

During the Brexit campaign there was a spontaneous hiss of anger when a politican responded to a question about low wages with 'that's why we're raising the minimum wage', and that hiss was from people that overwhelmingly support the minimum wage and support raising it. It's not a contradiction but the reasonable belief that the minimum wage is supposed to be a minimum to protect the most vulnerable workers from exploitation. it's not supposed to be the norm for vast groups of people or become the ceiling on what people can expect to earn.

We have to recognise that the jobs are increasingly going and never coming back. We have to start to tackle the link between working and self-worth while finding ways to distribute all the wealth that no-one is working to create. This is one of the defining problems of our age - we can try to get ahead of it or we can reap the whirlwind and put it back together afterwards.

Good post. I am old and jobs and self worth go hand in hand. I know trust fund adults who never needed to work and have had a hard time organizing their lives.
11-12-2016 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
This is a huge issues world-wide, one of the major problems of the 21st century and if we dont understand it and act then trump/brextit is just going to be the beginning of a great deal of pain.

During the Brexit campaign there was a spontaneous hiss of anger when a politican responded to a question about low wages with 'that's why we're raising the minimum wage', and that hiss was from people that overwhelmingly support the minimum wage and support raising it. It's not a contradiction but the reasonable belief that the minimum wage is supposed to be a minimum to protect the most vulnerable workers from exploitation. it's not supposed to be the norm for vast groups of people or become the ceiling on what people can expect to earn.

We have to recognise that the jobs are increasingly going and never coming back. We have to start to tackle the link between working and self-worth while finding ways to distribute all the wealth that no-one is working to create. This is one of the defining problems of our age - we can try to get ahead of it or we can reap the whirlwind and put it back together afterwards.
This is true. The question is how do we get politicians (who have an eye on being re-elected and keeping a career) to level with people, to serve up the bad medicine, to tell it like it is?

We need strong leadership, but politics is thoroughly lacking in this quality.

Term limits would be nice, but is a moonshot.

Politics should be 80% eye on the long-term. 20% on the short-term. But now it is 99% on the short-term. sigh.
11-12-2016 , 02:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
This is a huge issues world-wide, one of the major problems of the 21st century and if we dont understand it and act then trump/brextit is just going to be the beginning of a great deal of pain.

During the Brexit campaign there was a spontaneous hiss of anger when a politican responded to a question about low wages with 'that's why we're raising the minimum wage', and that hiss was from people that overwhelmingly support the minimum wage and support raising it. It's not a contradiction but the reasonable belief that the minimum wage is supposed to be a minimum to protect the most vulnerable workers from exploitation. it's not supposed to be the norm for vast groups of people or become the ceiling on what people can expect to earn.

We have to recognise that the jobs are increasingly going and never coming back. We have to start to tackle the link between working and self-worth while finding ways to distribute all the wealth that no-one is working to create. This is one of the defining problems of our age - we can try to get ahead of it or we can reap the whirlwind and put it back together afterwards.
You might be right. Maybe the next utopian social engineering program the left can engage in is to drop justice for the historically oppressed and get to work destroying the norm that your productive capacities are what constitutes your value and your dignity. In a world of increasing automation without the need for unskilled labor where material wealth will be provided via technocratic instruments like universal basic income, seems like our best shot.

The classes that feel dispossessed certainly don't want to be told to respect racial and religious minorities. Can't hand 'em money, at least not yet. Looks like we first have to get them comfortable with sitting around all day playing video games. Got high hopes this is going to work out for the younger generations. Doesn't seem like a huge stretch.
11-12-2016 , 02:30 PM
it is what it needs to be
simple as that
everything is deterministic
you drop a rock and it falls on the ground
big bang happens and x years later there we are: typing on the computers talkin about trump (good living)
11-12-2016 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Used2Play
Look at the counties that flipped to R from D in last election. People wondered why Trump made visits to safe D states right before election. Looks like he was on to something no one else was.

http://www.cnbc.com/heres-a-map-of-t...rom-democrats/
Interesting map. Thx for sharing.
11-12-2016 , 02:32 PM
Dan, she played at PA bigly and still lost. If she campaigned in the midwest and won her blue wall states, she still would've lost the election, and would have lost PA and FL by more.

I know that to you, when HRC doesn't campaign in states where facts and data overwhelmingly point to victory, it is the very definition of technocratic hubris, but in reality, her campaign made good strategy decisions based on the info by playing at FL and playing "defense" in PA (we know now that it was actually offense). Playing at NC was terrible - I said as much in the old thread - and you can make the case for hubris there, but that's about it.

Generally speaking, I'm not seeing how it can be too hubristic to assume you won't disastrously underperform your predecessor in the blue wall states when your opponent is the worst candidate in history. What you perceive as hubris is probably more like too much faith in the R's to behave like the D's and stay home or protest vote when they disapprove of the nominee. Or to tell the ****ing truth to the pollsters.

Last edited by AllTheCheese; 11-12-2016 at 02:39 PM.
11-12-2016 , 02:34 PM
I mean in the spirit of magnanimity we're all gonna have to come together in dystopian Trump America. If he's serious about the return to the alphabet soup work relief programs like the WPA and the CCC to keep restless angry people busy digging holes in exchange for a paycheck and staying sedate, we're gonna have to get the next generation of right-wingers to not blame liberals for all the half-assed hole digging projects and unproductive indolent blacks living off the government dole building playgrounds and useless bridges once Democrats start winning elections again and after the next market correction hits and the rich elites start getting envious at all those paychecks going out to hole-digging classes are costing them slightly smaller yachts. Give me some implicit guarantees here and I won't mention you stole all our ideas. Like we've played this one out before but I'll give it one more go if we agree to play nice.
11-12-2016 , 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by valenzuela
I agree but just like we need to hold hands and not hurt the feelings of the old workers who may vote democrat , we need to hold hands and not hurt the feelings of dvaut, fly, etc. We need to compromise with them, they have the need to call people names, ok, do so , but how about only to the rampant minority and not people whose vote we need.
It's a bit different as Fly and dvaut (and indeed me) are good chaps who are never going to anything but vote on the liberal/progressive side.

The compromise is that we can all do what we think best and we can all handle and take onboard others disucssing the pros and cons of what we do. We dont all have to agree on exaclty what is best. In fact I'd strongly argue that it's best that we dont all come to an agreement on exactly what is best - some range of behavior and views is actually best.
11-12-2016 , 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
This is a huge issues world-wide, one of the major problems of the 21st century and if we dont understand it and act then trump/brextit is just going to be the beginning of a great deal of pain.

During the Brexit campaign there was a spontaneous hiss of anger when a politican responded to a question about low wages with 'that's why we're raising the minimum wage', and that hiss was from people that overwhelmingly support the minimum wage and support raising it. It's not a contradiction but the reasonable belief that the minimum wage is supposed to be a minimum to protect the most vulnerable workers from exploitation. it's not supposed to be the norm for vast groups of people or become the ceiling on what people can expect to earn.

We have to recognise that the jobs are increasingly going and never coming back. We have to start to tackle the link between working and self-worth while finding ways to distribute all the wealth that no-one is working to create. This is one of the defining problems of our age - we can try to get ahead of it or we can reap the whirlwind and put it back together afterwards.
Works easy enough for college students. Lots don't work yet don't suffer from social worth issues.
11-12-2016 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
Dan, she played at PA bigly and still lost. If she campaigned in the midwest and won her blue wall states, she still would've lost the election, and would have lost PA and FL by more.

I know that to you, when HRC doesn't campaign in states where facts and data overwhelmingly point to victory, it is the very definition of technocratic hubris, but in reality, her campaign made good strategy decisions based on the info by playing at FL and playing "defense" in PA (we know now that it was actually offense). Playing at NC was terrible - I said as much in the old thread - and you can make the case for hubris there, but that's about it.

Generally speaking, I'm not seeing how it can be too hubristic to assume you won't disastrously underperform your predecessor in the blue wall states when your opponent is the worst candidate in history. What you perceive as hubris is probably more like too much faith in the R's to behave like the D's and stay home or protest vote when they disapprove of the nominee.
I didn't just pull my concern over Michigan out of the blue based on a gut feeling.

But please, keep telling me how the Clinton ran a good campaign after they lost to DFT.

      
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