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Old 06-21-2018, 07:22 AM   #1
AALegend
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WSOP Main Event Origin of Winner

Was looking at some Sports Bets on Bovada and saw this:

2018 WSOP Main Event - Origin of Winner
USA-150 Europe+205 Canada+400 South or Central America+900 Australia+1200 Field (Any Other)+900

I figure ~80% of the players are Americans (although there is a higher concentration of pros among foreigners), so USA @-150 has to be a good bet. What do you guys think?
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Old 06-21-2018, 11:25 AM   #2
rainmaker1855
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Re: WSOP Main Event Origin of Winner

I'd be curious to see how the last 6-8 years of the final table have broken down (I would use that as more of a ruler than just the total field).
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Old 06-21-2018, 12:51 PM   #3
Stu Ungar
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Re: WSOP Main Event Origin of Winner

Quote:
Originally Posted by AALegend View Post
Was looking at some Sports Bets on Bovada and saw this:

2018 WSOP Main Event - Origin of Winner
USA-150 Europe+205 Canada+400 South or Central America+900 Australia+1200 Field (Any Other)+900

I figure ~80% of the players are Americans (although there is a higher concentration of pros among foreigners), so USA @-150 has to be a good bet. What do you guys think?
I think a much better wager is:

2018 WSOP Main Event - How many American born players will be at the final table?

Over 5.5 Americans at the Final Table is +120..
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Old 06-22-2018, 10:15 PM   #4
AALegend
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Re: WSOP Main Event Origin of Winner

I did some research and...
actually in 2017, the number was 4/9. In 2016, it was 5/9. In 2015, it was 6/9. In 2014, it was 4/9.

Small sample size, but I guess that makes both bets highly questionable at best?
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Old 06-26-2018, 01:37 PM   #5
rainmaker1855
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Re: WSOP Main Event Origin of Winner

Quote:
Originally Posted by AALegend View Post
I did some research and...
actually in 2017, the number was 4/9. In 2016, it was 5/9. In 2015, it was 6/9. In 2014, it was 4/9.

Small sample size, but I guess that makes both bets highly questionable at best?
seems like a bet to avoid IMO
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Old 07-18-2018, 03:24 PM   #6
Stu Ungar
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Re: WSOP Main Event Origin of Winner

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Originally Posted by rainmaker1855 View Post
seems like a bet to avoid IMO
Easy Nguyen.

6 Americans made the final table, and all 6 made the final 6..
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Old 07-18-2018, 06:13 PM   #7
RhodyGuy
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Re: WSOP Main Event Origin of Winner

Quote:
Originally Posted by AALegend View Post
I did some research and...
actually in 2017, the number was 4/9. In 2016, it was 5/9. In 2015, it was 6/9. In 2014, it was 4/9.

Small sample size, but I guess that makes both bets highly questionable at best?
Since the elimination of the November Nine, American's have won every Main Event.
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Old 07-19-2018, 04:36 AM   #8
SwoopAE
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Re: WSOP Main Event Origin of Winner

With 26 left or so I remember checking and it was 14 Americans and 12 non-Americans with a similar average stack - the non Americans ran terribly from 3 tables left onwards. For example on the FT Cynn and Lynskey were the clear two best players ability wise imo and Lynskey was so carddead he didn't win a single hand. There were also a ton of Americans coolering non Americans leading into the FT.

I think it's clear American is fav over non American, but not by a large margin any given year.
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