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WSOP Main Event Origin of Winner

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06-21-2018 , 07:22 AM

AALegend

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 2,074

Was looking at some Sports Bets on Bovada and saw this:

2018 WSOP Main Event - Origin of Winner
USA-150 Europe+205 Canada+400 South or Central America+900 Australia+1200 Field (Any Other)+900

I figure ~80% of the players are Americans (although there is a higher concentration of pros among foreigners), so USA @-150 has to be a good bet. What do you guys think?

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06-21-2018 , 11:25 AM

rainmaker1855

adept

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,031

I'd be curious to see how the last 6-8 years of the final table have broken down (I would use that as more of a ruler than just the total field).

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06-21-2018 , 12:51 PM

Stu Ungar

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 4,966

Quote:

Originally Posted by AALegend

I think a much better wager is:

2018 WSOP Main Event - How many American born players will be at the final table?

Over 5.5 Americans at the Final Table is +120..

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06-22-2018 , 10:15 PM

AALegend

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 2,074

I did some research and...
actually in 2017, the number was 4/9. In 2016, it was 5/9. In 2015, it was 6/9. In 2014, it was 4/9.

Small sample size, but I guess that makes both bets highly questionable at best?

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06-26-2018 , 01:37 PM

rainmaker1855

adept

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,031

Quote:

Originally Posted by AALegend

seems like a bet to avoid IMO

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07-18-2018 , 03:24 PM

Stu Ungar

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 4,966

Quote:

Originally Posted by rainmaker1855

seems like a bet to avoid IMO

Easy Nguyen.

6 Americans made the final table, and all 6 made the final 6..

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07-18-2018 , 06:13 PM

RhodyGuy

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by AALegend

Since the elimination of the November Nine, American's have won every Main Event.

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07-19-2018 , 04:36 AM

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

With 26 left or so I remember checking and it was 14 Americans and 12 non-Americans with a similar average stack - the non Americans ran terribly from 3 tables left onwards. For example on the FT Cynn and Lynskey were the clear two best players ability wise imo and Lynskey was so carddead he didn't win a single hand. There were also a ton of Americans coolering non Americans leading into the FT.

I think it's clear American is fav over non American, but not by a large margin any given year.

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