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Old 04-09-2021, 02:34 AM   #1
Jwoods
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Would this “system” work?

For each nba game, you bet the moneyline favorite, and take the underdog with the points. You’re guaranteed to win one bet, and occasionally will win both. I’m sure I’m missing something though
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Old 04-09-2021, 03:13 AM   #2
rickroll
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Re: Would this “system” work?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jwoods View Post
For each nba game, you bet the moneyline favorite, and take the underdog with the points. You’re guaranteed to win one bet, and occasionally will win both. I’m sure I’m missing something though
you're missing a lot, notably vig means you still lose when you "break even" and due to the asymmetric lines you're risking a lot for minor rewards betting on some of the favorites

take tomorrow's lines, let's say $100 units

NYK +2 -107 = $107 to win $100
MEM -122 = $122 to win $100

MIN +8.5 -105 = $105 to win $100
BOS -378 = $378 to win $100

no other lines out yet

perfect day = risk $712 to win $400
faves cover spread = loss of $12
dogs win = loss of $400

you can easily backtest this scraping historic opening lines and seeing how much money you'd have lost betting it on the season
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Old 04-09-2021, 03:44 AM   #3
Jwoods
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Re: Would this “system” work?

Thank you for the response! I’ll go through the last few weeks, maybe if I tweak my bet sizes or see if I can exploit different sites having different lines? If I find something interesting I’ll post it
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Old 04-09-2021, 03:46 AM   #4
Jwoods
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Re: Would this “system” work?

I would be betting the same amount on every bet. I’m guessing finding money lines and spreads with a little bit of difference could help me get closer to beating the vig? Only one way to find out, I suppose
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Old 04-09-2021, 03:51 AM   #5
rickroll
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Re: Would this “system” work?

yeah, you can definitely be profitable line shopping and that sometimes means you can find the occasional middle but for the most part the vig is too high and will eat into all the times you don't hit the middle
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Old 04-09-2021, 05:11 AM   #6
alcamist
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Re: Would this “system” work?

rickroll giving sensible advice to an idiot... end of days near?
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