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View Poll Results: Worst odds of happening?
Browns making the playoffs 4 20.00%
Dolphins making the AFC Championship game 16 80.00%
Voters: 20. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-22-2017, 12:20 AM   #1
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worst odds of happening IYO, this year NFL

which do you think has worse odds of happening?

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ya, worse, worst, I'm all messed up, it's late
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Old 08-22-2017, 12:34 AM   #2
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Re: worst odds of happening IYO, this year NFL

I think both have pretty close to a .05 chance of happening. I would say Browns to make playoffs is slightly more likely, but I'm not an NFL expert, nor do I play one on television.
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Old 08-22-2017, 12:42 AM   #3
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Re: worst odds of happening IYO, this year NFL

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Originally Posted by somigosaden View Post
I think both have pretty close to a .05 chance of happening. I would say Browns to make playoffs is slightly more likely, but I'm not an NFL expert, nor do I play one on television.
thanks for your input, should have used the poll
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:42 AM   #4
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Re: worst odds of happening IYO, this year NFL

The Browns may (by Cleveland standards at least) actually be alright this year. not great but aiming for a legit 6 win season. that being said, when you're in the playoffs you eliminate any disparity on SoS and it comes down to who has the better team/gameplan week in and week out. Overcoming the BOTB in the AFC to play in the AFC championship seems like a bit of a stretch. As a Bears fan (and in general a Cutty supporter) I can confidently say that Smokin Jay/Dolphins isn't going to be the next Favre/Vikes surprise Cinderella in the conference championship game.
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Old 08-22-2017, 10:33 AM   #5
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Re: worst odds of happening IYO, this year NFL

ty for your input as well
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:47 PM   #6
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Re: worst odds of happening IYO, this year NFL

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Originally Posted by rainmaker1855 View Post
The Browns may (by Cleveland standards at least) actually be alright this year. not great but aiming for a legit 6 win season. that being said, when you're in the playoffs you eliminate any disparity on SoS and it comes down to who has the better team/gameplan week in and week out. Overcoming the BOTB in the AFC to play in the AFC championship seems like a bit of a stretch. As a Bears fan (and in general a Cutty supporter) I can confidently say that Smokin Jay/Dolphins isn't going to be the next Favre/Vikes surprise Cinderella in the conference championship game.
Completely agree, bears fan too and I just can't see cutler taking any team that far. He's got moments where he looks great, but it's just too unlikely he can string together enough of those to make it that far.

There's just more opportunities for the browns to make it to the playoffs, never thought I'd say that lol...but compared to the other side of this their chances actually look good.
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Old 08-23-2017, 10:47 AM   #7
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Re: worst odds of happening IYO, this year NFL

dont get me wrong, Cutler wins them some games this year that RT couldnt under center. Probably a poor record but they get a marquee win like stealing one late against the Pats.
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Old 08-23-2017, 11:01 AM   #8
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Re: worst odds of happening IYO, this year NFL

I agree with you guys that Dolphs to get to AFC Cham game is less likely than Browns making playoffs.

If the Dolphins sneak in, which I don't anticipate happening, they would almost 100% not have a bye the first round so that means they would need to win two playoff games vs quality teams, highly unlikely.

I asked because both lines(NFL Futures) were being spread at -1800. I bet them both but locked in the Browns bet before I saw the Dolphins line. Wish I could have put more on the Dolphins not getting there(AFC Champ game) than the browns not getting in playoffs.

break even percentage on the bets are 5.26% and I do not think either team has those odds of doing those feats. If I simulated the upcoming season 10,000 times, does either team do what I asked 5.26%?
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Old 09-05-2017, 03:09 PM   #9
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Re: worst odds of happening IYO, this year NFL

Seems crazy to tie up your money for 5 months, at a book that might go under, for a <6% return. But ok
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