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 09-30-2017, 12:02 AM #1 ajikavix enthusiast   Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 67 working out edge vs closing lines A noob maths question Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130 Probability for +115 = 46.5 Probability for +130 = 43.5 I always thought in this example that the edge is 3% 46.5 - 43.5 = 3 After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326 huh?
 09-30-2017, 08:01 AM #2 MisterRodriguez centurion     Join Date: May 2017 Location: UE Posts: 194 Re: working out edge vs closing lines For F sake next time look at the question before you ask. and by the away your previous assumption of an edge 3% just shows again your place is on reddit.Please GFO
 09-30-2017, 08:14 AM #3 ajikavix enthusiast   Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 67 Re: working out edge vs closing lines dude isn't this a forum where one asks a question to learn? or is it only a forum for so called big time players to chat between themselves without much proof? Also dude at least I admit that I'm a noob at maths while you seem to talk...................... and basically yeah just talk. You called me out in the other forum, I replied with a lets put some money on it....wait what happened there again? oh yeah you talked again and then went missing when you had to wager some of your Portugal coins. Dude either put your money down or stfu! and gtfo.
 09-30-2017, 12:43 PM #4 Mihkel05 banned   Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 4,835 Re: working out edge vs closing lines Relax bro. We're all just here to enjoy ourselves. Kinda like KD gimmick accounts.
 09-30-2017, 12:48 PM #5 ajikavix enthusiast   Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 67 Re: working out edge vs closing lines KD?
 09-30-2017, 08:54 PM #6 Hammerzitzen centurion   Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 127 Re: working out edge vs closing lines The example should be a negative edge
 10-01-2017, 02:00 AM #7 ajikavix enthusiast   Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 67 Re: working out edge vs closing lines no edge huh? According to this kelly calculator, the edge 6.89 I shouldn't really be discussing maths as its way over my head, instead should just pay a maths guy to explain it, and leave the maths to mathematicians who do it full time, but just doing the basic but even the basics are tilting me .
 10-01-2017, 01:17 PM #8 MisterRodriguez centurion     Join Date: May 2017 Location: UE Posts: 194 Re: working out edge vs closing lines And you still didnt notice that your opening thread is wrongly presented. What you wanted to say was Closing odds +115(2,15),and your line +130(2.30) The edge without accounting vig/comission for this example is 6,97% theoretically (since its not possible to know in which way the comission its distributed) However you can use the payout as a reference unless you are in medium/long odds territory which you shouldn´t be to much of your time due to EG»EV
 10-01-2017, 01:23 PM #9 Mihkel05 banned   Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 4,835 Re: working out edge vs closing lines You don't need to account for vig in this example. I don't even know what that means.
 10-01-2017, 01:37 PM #10 ajikavix enthusiast   Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 67 Re: working out edge vs closing lines no what i wanted to say was.. closing bookmakers odds +130 odds (probability) i assigned the team +115 So I have a 15 points edge or whatever I'm really thinking of hiring a professional translator to translate full time for me because fk my English and maths I must be extra terrestrial since no one is understanding whatever i say. Spoiler: no schooling guys self taught fml
10-01-2017, 02:35 PM   #11
Like
journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 352
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ajikavix A noob maths question Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130 Probability for +115 = 46.5 Probability for +130 = 43.5 I always thought in this example that the edge is 3% 46.5 - 43.5 = 3 After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326 huh?

I think what youre trying to say is that you make a bet a +130 but the you think the line should be +115, right? You say "my line" meaning the odds you personally give the team for winning, not the line you bet on. I think thats where the confusion is coming from. Am Iright?

And I dont know why this other rodriguez guy is bashing you when he types like a ****ing water head. At least you dont speak english, what is this other dudes excuse

 10-01-2017, 02:50 PM #12 ajikavix enthusiast   Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 67 Re: working out edge vs closing lines Yes
10-10-2017, 02:33 PM   #13
ajikavix
enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 67
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez you opened a thread recently where you failed to give the correct odds.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ajikavix Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130 Probability for +115 = 46.5 Probability for +130 = 43.5 I always thought in this example that the edge is 3% 46.5 - 43.5 = 3

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez And you still didnt notice that your opening thread is wrongly presented. What you wanted to say was Closing odds +115(2,15),and your line +130(2.30)
Quote:
 Originally Posted by ajikavix no what i wanted to say was.. closing bookmakers odds +130 odds (probability) i assigned the team +115

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Like I think what youre trying to say is that you make a bet a +130 but the you think the line should be +115, right? You say "my line" meaning the odds you personally give the team for winning, not the line you bet on. I think thats where the confusion is coming from. Am Iright? And I dont know why this other rodriguez guy is bashing you when he types like a ****ing water head. At least you dont speak english, what is this other dudes excuse
Quote:
 Originally Posted by ajikavix Yes

yet you still don't get it even though its explained ^ and i agreed, yet again you bring it up and mention it in another thread >>

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez you opened a thread recently where you failed to give the correct odds.

dude i might not speak English that good but it really seems like you need everything spelled out for you to understand even those the other poster in this thread understood what i was saying and also spelled it out for you.

10-15-2017, 11:01 PM   #14
GameBred
newbie

Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ajikavix A noob maths question Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130 Probability for +115 = 46.5 Probability for +130 = 43.5 I always thought in this example that the edge is 3% 46.5 - 43.5 = 3 After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326 huh?
It's easiest to just to plug in the decimal prices into the following formula:

Edge = Market Price / Fair Price

2.30 / 2.15 = 1.0697

So your edge is ~ 7%.

Hope this helps.

 10-15-2017, 11:26 PM #15 ajikavix enthusiast   Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 67 Re: working out edge vs closing lines Thanks!
10-16-2017, 06:04 AM   #16
GameBred
newbie

Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ajikavix Thanks!
No worries. You can also use this formula:

Edge = Market Price * Fair Probability

2.30 * .465 = 1.0695

As before, ~ 7%.

If you want to use American Odds then simply multiple the payoffs through by their probabilities via the following formula:

(Win Amt * Win Prob) – (Loss Amt * Loss Prob)

So if we plug in your #’s and risk \$100:

(\$130 * .465) – (\$100 * .535)

\$60.45 – \$53.50 = \$6.95

Once again, about 7 points in expectation. Obviously, if the bolded number is negative, you pass or better yet, book it!

Once you didn’t know how to do this, now you know 3 ways

 10-16-2017, 06:54 AM #17 ajikavix enthusiast   Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 67 Re: working out edge vs closing lines
 10-25-2017, 02:54 AM #18 husler enthusiast   Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 58 Re: working out edge vs closing lines How does : 2.30 * .465 = 1.0695 , equate to 7%.
10-27-2017, 12:49 AM   #19
GameBred
newbie

Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Quote:
 Originally Posted by husler How does : 2.30 * .465 = 1.0695 , equate to 7%.
Just rounded 6.9% up.

If the resulting # from the formula is greater than 1; like 1.0695, then the numbers after the decimal represent your percent edge.

Let's say you are getting 3.3 about a 46.5% chance.

3.3 * .465 = 1.534.... your edge here would be ~53%.

If you are getting 1.3 about a 46.5% chance, then:

1.3 * .465 = 0.604

Since the number is less than 1, this bet is -EV and you should pass.

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