Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-30-2017, 12:02 AM   #1
ajikavix
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 67
working out edge vs closing lines

A noob maths question

Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130

Probability for +115 = 46.5
Probability for +130 = 43.5

I always thought in this example that the edge is 3%
46.5 - 43.5 = 3

After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326

huh?
ajikavix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2017, 08:01 AM   #2
MisterRodriguez
enthusiast
 
MisterRodriguez's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2017
Location: UE
Posts: 99
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

For F sake next time look at the question before you ask.
and by the away your previous assumption of an edge 3% just shows again your place is on reddit.Please GFO
MisterRodriguez is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2017, 08:14 AM   #3
ajikavix
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 67
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

dude isn't this a forum where one asks a question to learn? or is it only a forum for so called big time players to chat between themselves without much proof?

Also dude at least I admit that I'm a noob at maths while you seem to talk...................... and basically yeah just talk.

You called me out in the other forum, I replied with a lets put some money on it....wait what happened there again? oh yeah you talked again and then went missing when you had to wager some of your Portugal coins.

Dude either put your money down or stfu! and gtfo.
ajikavix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2017, 12:43 PM   #4
Mihkel05
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 4,029
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Relax bro. We're all just here to enjoy ourselves. Kinda like KD gimmick accounts.
Mihkel05 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2017, 12:48 PM   #5
ajikavix
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 67
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

KD?
ajikavix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2017, 08:54 PM   #6
Hammerzitzen
centurion
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 112
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

The example should be a negative edge
Hammerzitzen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2017, 02:00 AM   #7
ajikavix
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 67
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

no edge huh?

According to this kelly calculator, the edge 6.89




I shouldn't really be discussing maths as its way over my head, instead should just pay a maths guy to explain it, and leave the maths to mathematicians who do it full time, but just doing the basic but even the basics are tilting me .
ajikavix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2017, 01:17 PM   #8
MisterRodriguez
enthusiast
 
MisterRodriguez's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2017
Location: UE
Posts: 99
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

And you still didnt notice that your opening thread is wrongly presented.

What you wanted to say was Closing odds +115(2,15),and your line +130(2.30)

The edge without accounting vig/comission for this example is 6,97% theoretically (since its not possible to know in which way the comission its distributed)
However you can use the payout as a reference unless you are in medium/long odds territory which you shouldn´t be to much of your time due to EG»EV
MisterRodriguez is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2017, 01:23 PM   #9
Mihkel05
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 4,029
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

You don't need to account for vig in this example. I don't even know what that means.
Mihkel05 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2017, 01:37 PM   #10
ajikavix
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 67
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

no what i wanted to say was..

closing bookmakers odds +130
odds (probability) i assigned the team +115

So I have a 15 points edge or whatever

I'm really thinking of hiring a professional translator to translate full time for me because fk my English and maths I must be extra terrestrial since no one is understanding whatever i say.

Spoiler:
ajikavix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2017, 02:35 PM   #11
Like
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 246
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Quote:
Originally Posted by ajikavix View Post
A noob maths question

Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130

Probability for +115 = 46.5
Probability for +130 = 43.5

I always thought in this example that the edge is 3%
46.5 - 43.5 = 3

After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326

huh?

I think what youre trying to say is that you make a bet a +130 but the you think the line should be +115, right? You say "my line" meaning the odds you personally give the team for winning, not the line you bet on. I think thats where the confusion is coming from. Am Iright?

And I dont know why this other rodriguez guy is bashing you when he types like a ****ing water head. At least you dont speak english, what is this other dudes excuse
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2017, 02:50 PM   #12
ajikavix
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 67
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Yes
ajikavix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 02:33 PM   #13
ajikavix
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 67
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

from the other thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez View Post
you opened a thread recently where you failed to give the correct odds.


This is the thread your're talking about and the OP

Quote:
Originally Posted by ajikavix View Post
Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130

Probability for +115 = 46.5
Probability for +130 = 43.5

I always thought in this example that the edge is 3%
46.5 - 43.5 = 3



Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez View Post
And you still didnt notice that your opening thread is wrongly presented.

What you wanted to say was Closing odds +115(2,15),and your line +130(2.30)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ajikavix View Post
no what i wanted to say was..

closing bookmakers odds +130
odds (probability) i assigned the team +115

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
I think what youre trying to say is that you make a bet a +130 but the you think the line should be +115, right? You say "my line" meaning the odds you personally give the team for winning, not the line you bet on. I think thats where the confusion is coming from. Am Iright?

And I dont know why this other rodriguez guy is bashing you when he types like a ****ing water head. At least you dont speak english, what is this other dudes excuse
Quote:
Originally Posted by ajikavix View Post
Yes

yet you still don't get it even though its explained ^ and i agreed, yet again you bring it up and mention it in another thread >>


Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez View Post
you opened a thread recently where you failed to give the correct odds.

dude i might not speak English that good but it really seems like you need everything spelled out for you to understand even those the other poster in this thread understood what i was saying and also spelled it out for you.
ajikavix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2017, 11:01 PM   #14
GameBred
newbie
 
GameBred's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Quote:
Originally Posted by ajikavix View Post
A noob maths question

Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130

Probability for +115 = 46.5
Probability for +130 = 43.5

I always thought in this example that the edge is 3%
46.5 - 43.5 = 3

After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326

huh?
It's easiest to just to plug in the decimal prices into the following formula:

Edge = Market Price / Fair Price

2.30 / 2.15 = 1.0697

So your edge is ~ 7%.

Hope this helps.
GameBred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2017, 11:26 PM   #15
ajikavix
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 67
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Thanks!
ajikavix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2017, 06:04 AM   #16
GameBred
newbie
 
GameBred's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Quote:
Originally Posted by ajikavix View Post
Thanks!
No worries. You can also use this formula:

Edge = Market Price * Fair Probability

2.30 * .465 = 1.0695

As before, ~ 7%.

If you want to use American Odds then simply multiple the payoffs through by their probabilities via the following formula:

(Win Amt * Win Prob) – (Loss Amt * Loss Prob)

So if we plug in your #’s and risk $100:

($130 * .465) – ($100 * .535)

$60.45 – $53.50 = $6.95

Once again, about 7 points in expectation. Obviously, if the bolded number is negative, you pass or better yet, book it!

Once you didn’t know how to do this, now you know 3 ways
GameBred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2017, 06:54 AM   #17
ajikavix
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 67
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

ajikavix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2017, 02:54 AM   #18
husler
stranger
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 10
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

How does : 2.30 * .465 = 1.0695 , equate to 7%.
husler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2017, 12:49 AM   #19
GameBred
newbie
 
GameBred's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 23
Re: working out edge vs closing lines

Quote:
Originally Posted by husler View Post
How does : 2.30 * .465 = 1.0695 , equate to 7%.
Just rounded 6.9% up.

If the resulting # from the formula is greater than 1; like 1.0695, then the numbers after the decimal represent your percent edge.

Let's say you are getting 3.3 about a 46.5% chance.

3.3 * .465 = 1.534.... your edge here would be ~53%.

If you are getting 1.3 about a 46.5% chance, then:

1.3 * .465 = 0.604

Since the number is less than 1, this bet is -EV and you should pass.
GameBred is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:21 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online