working out edge vs closing lines
09-30-2017
, 12:02 AM
A noob maths question 
Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130
Probability for +115 = 46.5
Probability for +130 = 43.5
I always thought in this example that the edge is 3%
46.5 - 43.5 = 3
After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326
huh?
Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130
Probability for +115 = 46.5
Probability for +130 = 43.5
I always thought in this example that the edge is 3%
46.5 - 43.5 = 3
After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326
huh?
09-30-2017
, 08:01 AM
10-01-2017
, 02:00 AM
no edge huh?
According to this kelly calculator, the edge 6.89
I shouldn't really be discussing maths as its way over my head, instead should just pay a maths guy to explain it, and leave the maths to mathematicians who do it full time, but just doing the basic but even the basics are tilting me 
.
According to this kelly calculator, the edge 6.89
I shouldn't really be discussing maths as its way over my head, instead should just pay a maths guy to explain it, and leave the maths to mathematicians who do it full time, but just doing the basic but even the basics are tilting me
.
10-01-2017
, 01:17 PM
10-01-2017
, 01:37 PM
no what i wanted to say was..
closing bookmakers odds +130
odds (probability) i assigned the team +115
So I have a 15 points edge or whatever
I'm really thinking of hiring a professional translator to translate full time for me because fk my English and maths I must be extra terrestrial since no one is understanding whatever i say.
closing bookmakers odds +130
odds (probability) i assigned the team +115
So I have a 15 points edge or whatever
I'm really thinking of hiring a professional translator to translate full time for me because fk my English and maths I must be extra terrestrial since no one is understanding whatever i say.
Spoiler:
10-01-2017
, 02:35 PM
Quote:
A noob maths question
Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130
Probability for +115 = 46.5
Probability for +130 = 43.5
I always thought in this example that the edge is 3%
46.5 - 43.5 = 3
After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326
huh?
Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130
Probability for +115 = 46.5
Probability for +130 = 43.5
I always thought in this example that the edge is 3%
46.5 - 43.5 = 3
After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326
huh?
I think what youre trying to say is that you make a bet a +130 but the you think the line should be +115, right? You say "my line" meaning the odds you personally give the team for winning, not the line you bet on. I think thats where the confusion is coming from. Am Iright?
And I dont know why this other rodriguez guy is bashing you when he types like a ****ing water head. At least you dont speak english, what is this other dudes excuse
10-15-2017
, 11:01 PM
Quote:
A noob maths question
Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130
Probability for +115 = 46.5
Probability for +130 = 43.5
I always thought in this example that the edge is 3%
46.5 - 43.5 = 3
After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326
huh?
Example say my line is +115 v closing line +130
Probability for +115 = 46.5
Probability for +130 = 43.5
I always thought in this example that the edge is 3%
46.5 - 43.5 = 3
After reading this thread https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ml#post1746326
huh?
Edge = Market Price / Fair Price
2.30 / 2.15 = 1.0697
So your edge is ~ 7%.
Hope this helps.
10-16-2017
, 06:04 AM
No worries. You can also use this formula:
Edge = Market Price * Fair Probability
2.30 * .465 = 1.0695
As before, ~ 7%.
If you want to use American Odds then simply multiple the payoffs through by their probabilities via the following formula:
(Win Amt * Win Prob) – (Loss Amt * Loss Prob)
So if we plug in your #’s and risk $100:
($130 * .465) – ($100 * .535)
$60.45 – $53.50 = $6.95
Once again, about 7 points in expectation. Obviously, if the bolded number is negative, you pass or better yet, book it!
Once you didn’t know how to do this, now you know 3 ways
Edge = Market Price * Fair Probability
2.30 * .465 = 1.0695
As before, ~ 7%.
If you want to use American Odds then simply multiple the payoffs through by their probabilities via the following formula:
(Win Amt * Win Prob) – (Loss Amt * Loss Prob)
So if we plug in your #’s and risk $100:
($130 * .465) – ($100 * .535)
$60.45 – $53.50 = $6.95
Once again, about 7 points in expectation. Obviously, if the bolded number is negative, you pass or better yet, book it!
Once you didn’t know how to do this, now you know 3 ways