Fyi, I have been betting teasers this year and am down ~15 units. If this holds this will be the first time I have ever lost for a season betting teasers. Obv it could easily just be variance, but I actually feel like teasers are far less profitable than before even at -110/+180/+300, etc, and I have some ideas why, and the countermeasures I have taken.
1. Higher scoring = higher variance.
This one is pretty obvious, and requires little further discussion.
Countermeasure: I have been focusing on lower totaled games.
2. Teams are going for 2 more often, and worse, more properly.
This mostly just affects when you bet favorites, but most teams are starting to realize things like when they score a TD with ~6 minutes left in the 4th quarter to go up by 12, kicking the xp is stupid, (Surprisingly, Andy Reid did not get this memo.) I don't have the actual data to back this up, but similar strategizing I believe has led to games falling on the 1 or 2 far more often than in the past, where they were the difference in score 2.5 and 1.98% of the time, respectively, (per
SBR odds great half point calculator tool, which I use religiously.) so far this year, however, through 206 games played, there have been seven games on the 1 (3.4%)and nine on the 2 (4.37%). I'm no stats guy, but while I'm guessing that's well within standard deviation, I feel like it's more likely a product of strategy changes.
Countermeasures: Not blindly betting Wongs anymore, making sure I am also teasing off a line that beats the market, or at a minimum is the best line available. Also, tease against Andy Reid.
3. More teams are going for the jugular.
It used to be that once teams got what was considered a semi-comfortable lead you could count on the vast majority of them to let off the throttle some. The only team that consistently kept pouring it on was the Patriots, which is why I think they cover the spread so consistently for a team that has likely been the favorite in more games than any other the last ~13 years. Now, teams like Indy, GB, Denver can be counted on to pile on points wherever they see an opportunity to do so, and other teams on a weekly basis sprout up because they are starting to realize that things like settling for a FG to go up 6 with two minutes left is today's pass-happy NFL is a bad idea (Hi Mike Smith!).
Countermeasure: Be less likely to bet dogs vs teams like New England, GB. Don't tease Mike Smith as a favorite.
These are just a few things I have noticed. It might just be statistical noise, it might not, but I am being far more careful teasing than I was in the past, that's for sure.