yeah and you still have to play it with something, most books will have already changed the available teaser anyway.

1. work out good and bad numbers to tease
2. wait until close to kick off
3. tease good numbers, do not tease bad numbers
???
4. maybe profit

If the line is at +3 is a 6 point tease considered a Wong?

No

depends on the other number tho. in the book doesn't wong just say any teaser that has value when you add points and it is just that subset was profitable over time

if its +3 -140 or something with a low total and adding 6 points makes it profitable with another leg, the i don't see why not

that's what i always took out of it, just get to 71% or whatever it is you need to be profitable, doesn't really matter what the line is that gets you there.

Are low totals definitely better for teasers? Intuitively it seems like they would be as games with lower points expected to be scored means each point is worth more, but does the data support it?

How many years have you been gambling now poogs? You ever going to consider doing your own work or just bottom feed forever?

Someday I'll read this Wong book and really take my game to the next level.

this has been working out pretty well for me so far

Fyi, I have been betting teasers this year and am down ~15 units. If this holds this will be the first time I have ever lost for a season betting teasers. Obv it could easily just be variance, but I actually feel like teasers are far less profitable than before even at -110/+180/+300, etc, and I have some ideas why, and the countermeasures I have taken.

1. Higher scoring = higher variance.

This one is pretty obvious, and requires little further discussion.

Countermeasure: I have been focusing on lower totaled games.

2. Teams are going for 2 more often, and worse, more properly.

This mostly just affects when you bet favorites, but most teams are starting to realize things like when they score a TD with ~6 minutes left in the 4th quarter to go up by 12, kicking the xp is stupid, (Surprisingly, Andy Reid did not get this memo.) I don't have the actual data to back this up, but similar strategizing I believe has led to games falling on the 1 or 2 far more often than in the past, where they were the difference in score 2.5 and 1.98% of the time, respectively, (per SBR odds great half point calculator tool, which I use religiously.) so far this year, however, through 206 games played, there have been seven games on the 1 (3.4%)and nine on the 2 (4.37%). I'm no stats guy, but while I'm guessing that's well within standard deviation, I feel like it's more likely a product of strategy changes.

Countermeasures: Not blindly betting Wongs anymore, making sure I am also teasing off a line that beats the market, or at a minimum is the best line available. Also, tease against Andy Reid.

3. More teams are going for the jugular.

It used to be that once teams got what was considered a semi-comfortable lead you could count on the vast majority of them to let off the throttle some. The only team that consistently kept pouring it on was the Patriots, which is why I think they cover the spread so consistently for a team that has likely been the favorite in more games than any other the last ~13 years. Now, teams like Indy, GB, Denver can be counted on to pile on points wherever they see an opportunity to do so, and other teams on a weekly basis sprout up because they are starting to realize that things like settling for a FG to go up 6 with two minutes left is today's pass-happy NFL is a bad idea (Hi Mike Smith!).

Countermeasure: Be less likely to bet dogs vs teams like New England, GB. Don't tease Mike Smith as a favorite.


These are just a few things I have noticed. It might just be statistical noise, it might not, but I am being far more careful teasing than I was in the past, that's for sure.

Thanks Daliman, kinda glad to know I'm not the only one losing on these this year while other folks seem to have the magic sauce to turn a 8-3 week into mad profits.

Thanks for rhe post and sharing your thoughts Daliman

I agree with a lot of this and I've noticed the same things. Although I think the biggest thing by far is simply the fact that more points are being scored now than ever before. I'm with you in that I look for a line to be at least break even before teasing it (even though I get 2 teamers at even odds).

I dont keep good enough records to know my exact +/- strictly on teasers, but I know they started off rough but have been better as of late. Could just be due to one of my books being aboslutely ridiculous (last week I got kc at +1.5 all the up to kick off when they closed at -3!!!)

Bling

It's the points man. Same reason that college teasers were never profitable unless the totals were low and NFL like. As NFL totals ratchet toward NCAA levels (exaggeration, I know), all these plays will be less +EV.

I have been doing this for 30 years almost, 41.5 was considered a high total when I started, now it is often the lowest on the board.

Finally!

The longer extra points could hurt Wong teasers big time. They are kicking them from the 15 yard line, (32-33 yard attempt) so they're will be more misses. Not only that but it will encourage more teams to go for 2-point conversions, so the 3 and 7 aren't all that magical now. Anyone agree/disagree?

yep

Looks like wong teasers may officially be 6 feet deep this year boys. Hope you all got that wong money the last couple years.

Ugh. I hope coaches stay conservative. 33 yd fgs are still relatively automatic, after all.

it's ok we just need to find the next wave.

what about chong pleasers?

yea actually I dont think itll be a huge deal and I would hazard a guess that wongs at -105 or better will still be profitable, but thats a complete guess. Definitely gonna have to be more selective of course. NFL coaches are just notoriously conservative and kickers get better every year, so I bet we'll still see the vast majority of TD's followed by a made XP. Finding teasers at -105 or better though is a whole other ball game/"skill set" though.

I don't think it will matter much unless it's a bad weather game

Even if it's only 90% coaches will equate that too 100% when making their decision

Basically eliminates fake extra point, 2 point conversion tries I guess.

Can you bet preseason teasers anywhere?