Do you understand cfl scoring?

Since you're asking, my guess is "No." Also, I saw a clip and it looked like the goalpost was on the goal line instead of 10 yards back.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compari...rican_football

Okay, now I know.

good talk

Whatcha know about crossing the 7 and the 10?

Haven't seen this thread in a while.


What about the 7 and the 10? You have a reason for this question?

ugh... I used to spoon feed so much
thankfully, got to busy to keep doing that

wongz going to be dinosaurs soon enough

Tempted to make one final post and just lock this thread, but guess will leave it open. This is probably covered in this nearly 2000 post thread but rather than scrolling here goes.

A teaser is a parlay on alternative point spreads. Each leg of the teaser obviously has matching odds. What the odds are per leg most people don't consider because the overall teasers uses fixed odds. The strategy for attempting to beat them is to break it down to individual odds per leg. This is how to calculate that:

First calculate the implied probability of the teaser. If it is 3-team teaser at +160 we're calculating the implied probability of +160. Implied probability means how often the bet needs to win to average break even. The formula is risk/return=implied-probability. Return is stake + win. So $100 on +160 returns $260 ($100 stake + $160 in winnings). The math is therefore $100/$260=0.3846153846153846 which is 38.46153846153846%. That's how often all 3 must combined must win for the bet to average break even.

Note: you could save time and just plug in the odds to an odds converter, to see the implied probability too.

For teaser strategy we need to break it down per leg. As in this case we're dealing with 3 teams we need the cubed root of the 0.3846153846153846 overall implied probability calculated above. To do this we can use this radicals calculator. Put 3 in the top and 0.3846153846153846 in the bottom. This spits out 0.727236. So each leg needs to win 72.72% of the time to average our required 38.46% on all 3 winning.

Next go back to the odds converter plus in 72.72% and see this in American odds is -266.6

Therefore a 3-team +160 teaser is a parlay where each team is priced -266.6 and each has implied probability of 72.72%.

(note if it was a 2 team teaser we'd be doing the squared root, if it was 4 team the 4th, etc. etc. it still all works the same).

The strategy is now whether moving the point spread or total however many points the bookmaker is giving us increases the win rate by the difference or not. If the point spread was a 50/50 probability does adding X # of points increase the win rate by (72.72-50=)22.72% or not.

At the odds that teasers are currently offered +EV opportunities are now quite rare, but that's the math behind them.

To answer though the question of crossing 7 and 10. It is better than some #'s and there is some odds in which almost anything can or should be teased.

Let's say you did manage to somehow find a profitable teaser on 3-team +160. The same bookmaker also 4-team teasers +300 for the same number of points. A 3-team parlay at -266.6 / -266.6 / -266.6 is +160. Add in a 4th team for about -185 and it is +300. You're getting about -185 on that 4th leg. When looked at it this way there is all sorts of things you could potentially tease.

Thank you PP, this is a really informative post but you lost me here:

How are we getting the 4th team at ~ -185?

Could you please walk me through the math as I tried to figure it out for myself to no avail. FWIW, I got ~ -241 for each leg and not -266.6 / -266.6 / -266.6 / -185.

Thank you.

Just semantics. You go to a store and are checking out and have 3 items in cart for $100 each. They say if you buy 4 you get 20% off your order. You can say hmm okay I get the 4th one for $20. Or you could say buying this 4th one I get 4 for $80 each. However you want to think of it the total price is still the same.

I'm not sure if you were asking for the actual math or not?

The 3-team teaser pays +160 (-266.6 per team).
The four team teaser pays +300.

You can say by taking 4 I get -241 on each or I get a great deal on the 4th. If looking at it as the great deal on the 4th and are actually asking for the math:

The math works better in decimal odds format. -266.6 is 1.3751 decimal odds.

1.3751*1.3751*1.3751=2.60 decimal odds. Which is +160 in American odds. That's your 3 team parlay.

The 4 teamer pays +300 which is decimal odds 4.00. The math is:

1.3751*1.3751*1.3751*A=4.00
Which is: 2.6A=4.00
Which is simple algebra.
Divide each side by 2.6
A=1.5385

Decimal odds 1.5385 is American odds -185.7

To double check:
1.3751*1.3751*1.3751*1.5385=4.00
Which is American Odds +300

Thus you either got -241 on each or got the 4th one for -185.7

Thank you, PP. Great explanation and crystal clear now. I appreciate it.

Have access to 2 team, 6 pt football teasers at -110. Ties lose. When I fire up the lines for the NFL this week, I see

Seattle +7.5
Atlanta +7.5

Pretty sure this is wildly +ev, no?

To use an example, when I try to do a 6 pt teaser on 5dimes they list Seattle and Atlanta both +6. Essentially 5dimes and other sites block teasers by offering pk -125 instead of -1.5 or whatever and then the teaser is based on that pk line. But the place I play doesn't adjust. Going from 6 to 7.5 is obviously worth a ton, just curious how good of a play this is or where I can figure this out on my own. I rely on dropdowns mostly because they're most accurate

Also looks like 5d has the same lines when you do a 7.5 pt teaser but at either -135 or -143 depending on if ties win or reduce. For this bet there aren't ties since both are on the half pt. So seems like I'm getting around -135 for -110?

And they have 3 team 6 pt teasers at +180. Similar logic here. Can get +8 instead of +7, +7.5 instead of +6 etc on a lot of games.

Small edge at best. You can bet this elsewhere at the same odds

edit: 3-team 6 point at +180 this would be good.

Interesting. 5d offers these exact odds. Only difference is that on 5d ties reduce and on the place I play they lose. But I can get the free 1.5 pt. So I can do

Seattle +7.5
Atl +7.5
Detroit +8

+180 but ties lose.

You're saying that's better than the 2 pt 6 teamers? Curious why, I guess I'll go back and read some stuff in this thread

+180 3-teamers are better than -110 2-teamers, yes. On the 3-teamer you need 70.95% win legs (cubed root of 100/280), and the 2-teamer you need 72.37% win legs (square root of 110/210).

Giants + 10 seems quite attractive as well as an add on if you're uncomfortable adding Detroit.

With Palmer out I am not sure what the Lions + 2 line means, other than the fact that the Lions have historically struggled in the PST (where haven't they though)

Ties lose doesn't matter in this situation unless DET loses by exactly 8, which is a pretty small percentage (you can easily work out the math). You can usually tease +3 (-125) etc at these books and the 9 is pretty low probability anyways.

That said, I have been getting punished on these this year.

I get two teamers at even money and I haven't been doing great with them either. I wonder if some assumptions about push rates and stuff are wrong nowadays in the NFL with the rule changes so heavily favoring the offense.

Also, might be a dumb question, but I can't quite figure out the best way to hedge these. Like I said I get two-teamers at even money, and im able to bet more on them than Id like to be naked on. I understand it's a two team parlay at -242 odds for each team. I can usually get like +280 on the other teams ml but you can still lose the teaser and one of the hedged ml doing that. Is there a way to perfectly scalp these?

You point out the rule changes help offenses... hmmm... what can we bet and win money on when offenses have the upper hand?

I find my 2 locks and tack on an OVER play. Been picking off 3 teamers all season with that. GL either way mate.

from the cell beeeetchs

I prefer middling for a hedge bc it comes in so frequently. Usually only afternoon and SNF/MNF as there is too much interdependencies to know if a hedge is necessary in early games. I have tried to do less hedging this year compared to past years, great timing (freaking GB vs NO)

I don't think push rates have changed that much, it just seems like more blowouts this year in the games I am playing.

Don't really know of a true hedge for these, would have to be a weird bet with alt MLs where only one team has to win?

The totals market has probably adjusted. People with archaic data mined push charts probably haven't. Or it could just all be variance.

Either way it ****ing sucks

Just split the account with me, and I'll do the work/math while you socialize and then maybe you can introduce me to a girl after we bust the guy.

people are losing on teasers this year???
hahahahahahahhahahahahha... doin' it wrong are they

People still bet teasers?